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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260209
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
909 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE DEFINITIVELY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE
FRESHENED NOTICEABLY AT ALL REPORTING SENSORS IN THE SERVICE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THAT WERE MORE
PRONOUNCED BEFORE SUNSET HAVE FILLED BACK OVER BY LAYERED LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT KBYX RADAR IS JUST ABOUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM 2000
TO 5000 FEET ON A PROFILE THAT HAS VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...PWAT STILL ABOVE 1.8
INCHES...THANKS TO SEVERAL MOIST LAYERS EXTENDING ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH
20000 FEET ON A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. SENT A ZONE UPDATE
EARLIER THIS EVENING WHICH UPPED OUR WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND INSERTED A BREEZY DESCRIPTOR...AND SET THE SKY CONDITION
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEAR TERM. NOT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...READINGS SHOULD NOT DIP VERY MUCH
BELOW WHERE THEY ARE PRESENTLY. THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE STILL FELT
REASONABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SENT A COASTAL WATERS UPDATE EARLIER DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING AT
ALL REPORTING SENSORS WITHIN THE SERVICE AREA. THE WINDOW FOR THESE
HIGHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...AND ONLY ADVERTISED THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE THINGS FOR THAT MAJOR UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SET THE WIND DIRECTION AT
NORTHEAST ALL LOCATIONS. WILL PROBABLY SEND AN UPDATE CLOSER TO THE
INTERMEDIATE UPDATE TIME LATER THIS EVENING BECAUSE THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE WAS SENT SO EARLY. DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE ON THAT ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 26/15Z. THE EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS A
FRONTAL INVERSION AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER TO
AROUND 3100 FEET. ANOTHER SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER IS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA NEAR 5K FEET. FROM THE 11 - 3.9 SATELLITE WE FIND LOW LEVEL
DECKS APPROACHING THE KEYS WHICH MAY LOWER DECKS TO AROUND 1500 TO
1800 FEET...HAVE OPTED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC 1800
SCATTERED DECK. WINDS ARE SURGING AND EXPECT TO HAVE GUSTS WELL ABOVE
15 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 26/15Z IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...KEYS RESIDENTS HAD
AS CLOSE AS THEY HAVE EVER GOTTEN TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS...WITH A LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES AND A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 54
DEGREES...BOTH DAILY RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY IN KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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