Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 301847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
247 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Changes to Forecast -- Minor tweaks were made to sky cover and winds;
however, overall, no significant changes were made.

Current Situation and Analysis -- Showers and thunderstorms affected
Key West and vicinity earlier this afternoon, but a lull in activity
has developed recently.  Air temperatures quickly recovered to the
mid 80s, while dewpoint temperatures remain in the lower to mid 70s.
Large-scale forcing is weak at present, with a summertime-like
pattern in place.  A very unstable atmosphere has developed across
the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters with weak convective
inhibition and abundant moisture in the lower troposphere.

Prognostic Overview -- Mesoscale circulations will drive
development of isolated showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and this evening around the Florida Keys.  Large-scale
forcing for ascent may become slightly more favorable beyond
Thursday, with an increase in lower-tropospheric momentum.  However,
overall, mesoscale circulations and moisture variations will drive
the daily convective rainfall.  This is consistent with previous
forecast thinking, and we have retained 20-30 percent 12-hourly
measurable rainfall chances through the next seven days.

No watches, warnings, advisories, or headlines.  A weak pressure
pattern will persist across Florida Keys coastal waters tonight.  A
ridge of high pressure will build across the Florida peninsula
Tuesday through Saturday.

Data from this morning`s 12Z RAOB observation indicate steering flow
and atmospheric moisture content is favorable for the development of
cumulus congestus along the island chain.  There has already been
two rounds of cloud line development, and a third round is expected
later this afternoon.  Thus, we advertise VCTS at the EYW terminal
which could deliver temporary IFR VIS/MVFR CIG and convective wind
gusts around 25 knots.

May 30 -- On this date in Key West climate history, in 1960, the
daily record rainfall of 7.20 inches was recorded.  This is also the
wettest day ever recorded in May.  Precipitation records in Key West
date back to 1871.

Key West  78  88  79  88 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon  78  90  79  90 / 20 20 20 20




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