Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021313
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250
MB IS NEAR PINAR DEL RIO CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT
500 MB...A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. BUT LATEST CIMMS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCAPSULATED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...AND ALL WATERS AREAS WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND
AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IS JUST UPSTREAM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR BUOY 41049 IN
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27 NORTH 63 WEST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS LAKE OCHEOCHOBEE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED AT THE
LONGITUDE OF JAMAICA AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS A
RESULT...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH AMPLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND PWAT AOA 1.81 INCHES WITH
THE DRIEST AIR ~ BETWEEN 850-600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE. OTHER
LOWER TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY...LIKE IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GENERATE A
GRADIENT THRU LATE MORNING...BUT GIVEN STRONG HEATING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVEN
THE EMERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA PENINSULA COLLIDING WITH RESIDENT BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. SAME
HOLDS TRUE IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WELL WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THRU THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/12Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS. BELOW 3K FEET EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........BWC
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

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