Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 210250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...DUMPING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 1215 AM EDT. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A RAIN-COOLED 73F AT MARATHON TO 80F IN
KEY WEST AND 82F ALONG MUCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT. THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DEEP LAYER OF RICH MOISTURE
AND A COMPARISON OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OWING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDLE KEYS
COMMUNITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 21/18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EYW AND MTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PREVALENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUB VFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY. TIMELY AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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