344
FXUS62 KKEY 141949
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
349 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Surface analysis places a weak frontal boundary extending from the
central Gulf of Mexico northeastward through central Florida and
just off the Georgia coastline. Meanwhile, an area of surface high
pressure is centered just to its east off in the vicinity of
Bermuda. CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity analysis places a
potent mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf eastward to the
Bahamas. This continues to keep the Florida Keys in a very dry and
warm pattern. KBYX is void of any meteorological echo returns.
Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with temperatures
generally in the upper 80s, and heat indices near 100F.

Nil rain chances are expected to continue tonight. The
aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to sag southward
towards South Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night, then stall in
the vicinity of the Florida Keys for late week. This will result
in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast, but in general, stronger
winds during the evening and overnight periods and weaker winds
during the afternoons. Rain chances appear to remain low through
the week, and will likely be limited to any outflow boundaries
shooting off either from the dissipating frontal feature to our
north or pushing off Cuba in the diurnally-favored late afternoon
and early evening hours. Temperatures will remain the main weather
story for this period, with temperatures likely reaching 90F
through Sunday, and lows only dipping into the lower 80s.

Global ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance continues
to detect a changing synoptic pattern by late in the weekend and
early next week. The dominant ridge appears it will finally break
down, as a shortwave trough deepens just off the Southeast
coastline. While the greatest forcing for large-scale ascent will
likely remain north of the Florida Keys for this period, all it
often takes this time of year is removal of the ridge-driven cap
to get shower proliferation locally. Given this is still over five
days out, have only nudge measurable rain chances slightly upward
for this period, although should model run-to-run consistency
persist, more drastic upticks will be required in upcoming
forecast package cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida
Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western
Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through
the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and
overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and
thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected to persist at EYW and MTH terminals
through the evening and overnight hours. Southeast surface winds of
5 to 10 knots will continue through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the early evening hours. However, another surge in winds
out of the southeast to south is expected later this evening through
the overnight hours with sustained winds near 15 knots with
occasional gusts to near 20 knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of
5.76 inches was recorded in Marathon set back in 2020. Rainfall
records for Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  92  82  92 /  10  10  20  10
Marathon  81  92  82  92 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....DP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest