Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 170243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
943 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

KBYX Doppler radar shows a large swatch of chaff north of the Keys
island chain extending into southwest Florida. Very weak echoes
continue to drift northward in the Atlantic, mainly offshore from
the Upper and Middle Keys. These echoes are elevated, and it is
unlikely that any precipitation is making it to the surface. If it
is, it is very light. And, the trend is for these echoes to wane
as they approach the island chain.

The evening local sounding showed the winds up to nearly 4000 feet
remained fresh from the northeast. Flow above that has
strengthened from the southwest/west. Moisture remains low in a
relative sense, but there is a sense of increase in a layer from
4000 to 7000 feet nudging northward. Have already sent a zone
update to increase the cloud cover for the overnight period,
maintain just a slight chance of light showers, and trimmed our
northeasterly breezes to gentle to moderate.


Sent a coastal waters forecast update out a little early this
evening to account for lower winds being reported along and north
of the reef. The local HRRR suggests a wind surge over the next
hour or so, but even with this, the overall wind field for most
locations will be sustained below the small craft advisory
criteria, save for the Straits. That headline has been preserved
through the early morning hours there, but an exercise caution for
small craft has replaced the advisory from the afternoon package


VFR ceilings are expected through the overnight period. Winds will
be sustained moderately through tonight from the north/northeast,
then freshen from the north with less overall cloud coverage
expected through the day on Wednesday at both the KEYW and KMTH


GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......L. Kasper

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