Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT IS SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
ENTIRELY RELEGATED TO THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS. FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVE UNIMPRESSIVELY INTO THE MID 70S.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 60S. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR.

FORECAST - WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AS SOUTH
FLORIDA WARMS. BIG SWINGS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING TROUGHS
ON TOP OF DAILY HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTS IN LULLS EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURGES. THE SWINGS WILL BE
GREATEST NEARER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW
POINTS DIPPING DOWN NEAR OR BELOW 60...PROVIDING A LATE SEASON
REPRIEVE FROM THE STEADY MARCH TOWARDS SUMMER.

PRECIPITATION WISE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEAK SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS THE FIRST REINFORCING TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
KEYS...BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ROOM FOR
SHOWERS TO GROW UP TO ABOVE 700 MB. BEYOND THAT...NO SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A GULF OF MEXICO HIGH WILL STRETCH EASTWARD AS A LOW OFF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FINALLY ROTATES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK
TO...THEN ABOVE...NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. ALL RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
EXIT FLORIDA KEYS WATERS SHORTLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE...LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...IN ADDITION TO DAY TIME HEATING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...A COUPLE OF REINFORCING TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA KEYS WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE WIND SPEED SWINGS IN THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH FLOW...PARTICULARLY ON WATERS CLOSEST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...PEAK IN THE
EVENING...AND LULL EARLY IN THE DAY. A CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST TO NORTH CROSSWIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR
20 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CROSSWINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY IN
1959...MAY 5TH MARKED THE END OF THE DRIEST PERIOD ON RECORD FOR KEY
WEST. 44 DAYS WITH NO RECORD OF RAINFALL...INCLUDING NO TRACE
EVENTS. PRECIPITATION RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  71  79  69 / -  10 -  -
MARATHON  83  70  79  68 / -  10 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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