Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 280850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - ANOTHER COOL MORNING ACROSS THE KEYS...AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR ON STRONG GUSTY
NORTHERLIES. THIS WIND SURGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1032 HIGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATS. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS NEAR
70...THE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE REMAINING ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE NEAR 60. COOL WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO DEPRESS FURTHER BAY AND GULF
SIDE WATER TEMPERATURES AND WATERS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BY DAY BREAK. STABLE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN...AND SKIES ARE
CLEAR WITH NOTHING DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

FORECAST - WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL EASE OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S...ALONG WITH A STILL COOL AIR MASS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 DEGREES
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MODERATING IN EARNEST STARTING FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SPREADS EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD...STEADILY CLOCKING WINDS FURTHER NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CLOSER TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
PLACE BY NEXT WEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BUCKLE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOISTENING AND COOLING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND THE LOSS
OF OUR STABILIZING INVERSION. MEANWHILE...FRESH EASTERLIES THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DO ITS PART TO WARM...MOISTEN...AND DEEPEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND 30 PERCENT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE THE WARMER
WATER AND BEST FLUX WILL BE.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WIND SURGE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND A HIGH CELL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL LULL THE MOST IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH WILL BE
SHIFTED WEST OF YESTERDAYS LULL DUE TO A MORE EAST OF NORTH FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS THIS
MORNING...BEING TRIMMED BACK AS WINDS WINDS RELAX. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOCK MORE NORTHEAST THEN EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE HIGH BEGINS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT...AND A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KEYS
WATERS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST UP TO 5KFT AT AROUND 15
KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...BACKING WITH HEIGHT THIS MORNING.
THEN AFT 28/17Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN...ESPECIALLY AT
MARATHON...PICKING UP AGAIN AROUND 28/23Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON NOVEMBER 28 OF 1903 IN THE KEYS...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 61F WAS RECORDED...MAKING IT THE COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. ALSO IN THE SAME
DAY...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  67  64  74  69 / 0 0 0 -
MARATHON  66  63  73  69 / 0 0 0 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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