Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190932
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
432 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mid-upper level trough
digging southeast through the Mississippi River Valley (MRV).
Surface observations, regional radar loops, and infrared satellite
imagery place a cold front from near the panhandle of Florida,
west- southwest through the central Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis
which was across northern Florida yesterday at this time, is now
nearly across the Florida Keys. Light breezes prevail across the
coastal waters of the Florida Keys, while most island communities
indicate winds of less than 5 mph. Temperatures range from 66 to
73 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The KBYX radar
is echo free.

.FORECAST...
The cold front across the Gulf of Mexico will press southward
today and tonight, eventually stalling very near the Keys early
Monday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure currently centered near
the Texas Panhandle will work quickly eastward, reaching the
Carolina coastline by Monday evening. As a result, northeast
breezes will freshen across all coastal waters of the Florida Keys
Monday, then shift to the east-northeast Monday night. The high
will continue east into the Western North Atlantic Tuesday,
conceding ground to a maelstrom of short waves digging into the
Gulf of Mexico and the MRV. The lower troposphere will respond to
the falling heights aloft, although the exact details remain
murky. A broad, non-tropical low pressure system will develop over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday,
then bleed beads of low pressure across the Florida Peninsula
Thursday night and Friday. By Saturday, the unsettled weather in
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will coalesce into a formidable
storm system east of the Carolinas. We advertise increased rain
chances Monday through Thursday night, with the best chances
narrowing down to Thursday (Turkey-day). There may even be a few
thunderstorms Thursday within the deep and moist cyclonic profile.
Drier and cooler weather will filter into the Florida Keys on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
No current watches, warnings, or advisories. Small Craft Advisory
may be required tonight in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico
as northeast winds increase to at least 15 to 20 knots, maybe
higher. From synopsis, a weak cold front will progress southward
down the Florida peninsula today. This cold front should stall
near the Florida Keys Monday, before moving northward as a warm
front Monday night. An area of low pressure will likely develop
over the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through at least 20/06z at the KEYW and KMTH
terminals. Light northerly winds 5 knots or less are expected to
become northwest 5 to 10 knots by 19/16z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1985, Hurricane Kate moved west-northwest across
portions of central Cuba, re-emerging into the Straits of Florida
east of Havana. The center of the hurricane passed about 85 miles
south southwest Key West. Official maximum winds measured at the
Key West Airport were sustained at 54 mph with a peak gust of 69
mph. An unofficial instantaneous wind gust of 104 mph was observed
above the roof of the 3-story Courthouse Annex and Monroe County
Sheriffs Office headquarters in Old Town Key West.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Rizzo
Data Collection......Rizzo

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