Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200229
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ISLAND CHAIN ORIGINATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES HAVE
REMAINED INACTIVE...AND APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTH FLORIDA AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE HEADED WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD...LEAVING THE KEYS WITHOUT A CLEAR SOURCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED SUBTLE
WARMING AND DRYING IN THE 800 TO 900 MB LAYER WHICH HAS CHALLENGED
ANY INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS. THUS FAR NO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN THE KEYS AREA.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND
CHAIN OVERNIGHT...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE BEST
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION FAILING TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...AND A BENIGN LOOKING UPSTREAM CLOUD FIELD...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AT BEST OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AND
NUDGING POPS DOWNWARD APPEARS TO BE THE BEST COURSE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS
TYPICALLY HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS KEYS
WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KEYS. WILL ONLY
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER RAIN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
MARINE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/AND OR VIS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT IMPACT
EITHER/BOTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 KNOTS FROM ABOUT
140 DEGREES THRU ABOUT SUNRISE...THEN SURFACE TO 15000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK TO 060 OR 070 DEGREES THEREAFTER...FAVORING CUMULUS
CLOUD LINES NEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1924...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.40 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT
KEY WEST. THIS IS THE LOWEST VALUE FOR RAINFALL THAT REPRESENTS A
DAILY RECORD FOR KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.  RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

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