Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 241014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
314 AM PDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather comes to an end as a series of weak fronts
moves through the area through Thursday with scattered showers and
isolated thunder. The main storm system will finally exit the
area late Friday with dry and warmer weather returning for the


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. A weak cold front will
move through the region today and another Thursday dropping temps
several degrees and providing enough lift to create isolated to
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Thursday. Temps will climb to very warm values today, mainly in
the 80s in valleys, and then drop to the 60s and 70s. As the upper
trough moves east Friday, thunderstorm area moves to mainly
northeast Nevada. Temps cooler but still near normal.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. Upper ridge redevelops along
the West Coast early this weekend with ridge axis shifting
eastward over the interior West, including the Great Basin by
early next week. This will provide several days of mostly sunny
and dry weather with above normal temperatures across Nevada.
Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s on Saturday, mid 70s to
lower 80s Sunday and Monday, and in the 80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate Pacific trough and weak
shortwave energy will infringe upon the upper ridge later Tuesday
into Wednesday. GFS develops weak cut-off low that moves off
California coast into northern Baja region while ECMWF keeps wave
open along southern end of Pacific trough. Will keep Wednesday dry
for now, but regardless of final outcome, some Pacific moisture
will spill into Nevada by the middle of next week which will lead
to an increase in high and mid- level clouds Tuesday into


.AVIATION...Cool front will sag south into northern NV today.
Limited moisture and instability generated by daytime heating will
be enough to trigger a few showers and isolated storms including
virga in the vicinity of KEKO and KELY during the afternoon and
early evening. It will also become breezy with southwest to west
winds gusting from 25 to 30 kts at all sites and up to 35 kts at


.FIRE WEATHER...A cool front crosses the state today and another
weaker one Thursday, turning winds to the west and gusty.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
over much of central, eastern, and northern Nevada today, and
continue into Thursday. By Friday, the storm system moves east and
storms will be confined to mostly northeast and far east central


.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River from Battle Mountain
downstream past Winnemucca will remain in minor to moderate flood
stage for the foreseeable future. Water levels are running high
and flows swift on many other rivers and creeks due to increased
high elevation snowmelt and runoff caused by recent warm weather.
Temperatures are forecast to cool by 10 to 15 degrees Thursday
into Friday which will help to temporarily slow snowmelt, but look
for afternoon highs to warm back up above 80 later this weekend
and early next week.




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