Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
302 PM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures have returned with highs in the
80s and 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
possible in central Nevada during the afternoon. More
thunderstorms are possible with a monsoonal moisture push this
weekend and into next week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Models remain in good
agreement and are keeping run to run consistency with pattern
evolution which keeps confidence high.

Today. Lingering moisture remains across south central Nevada
which is causing some high based showers on the mountains. The
instability and dynamic are unfavorable for much more convection
but there is still a small chance that a thunderstorms could form
as well. This convection should rapidly diminish with the loss of
heating after sunset.

Friday and Saturday. The pattern begins to shift during this time
with a trough beginning to dig off the coast of California with a
ridge building across northern Nevada. This will start drawing up
a little monsoonal moisture into Nevada. The moisture should be
mostly confined in south central Nevada on Friday and becoming
more wide spread across central Nevada on Saturday. The overall
amount of moisture remains low with Pwat values below .75". The
convection should be mostly dry with some wetting storms possible
in the stronger slower moving cells. The overall dynamics with
this system remain fairly weak with the largest driving force of
convection being solar insulation. Thus it is expected that there
will be convection during the afternoon hours that will quickly
dissipate during the overnight hours only to repeat during the
next afternoon.

Temperatures remain seasonal with highs expected in the 80s and
into the low 90s with overnight lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday. The models remain in
good agreement with both long term solutions keeping a trough off
the Californian coast with a ridge over northern Nevada. The EC
has continued to align with the GFS solution on overall placement
of trough axis so confidence remains high in the extended

A closed low should remain off the Californian coast through
Thursday which will help to advect moisture across Nevada during
next week. While the moisture feed should be continuous it is not
that impressive so right now the moisture amount should be fairly
limited across Nevada.

Saturday through Sunday. The moisture will remain most
concentrated across central Nevada and be fairly limited in scope.
This should keep convection isolated in nature and on the dry
side. The Dynamic at this time are fairly weak with no real jet
support so diurnal insulation will be the main driving force of
convection. Thunderstorms should form during the afternoon hours
along the mountains and possible migrate off the ranges. Following
sunset convection should rapidly dissipate. Gusty afternoon winds
are also expected mainly in central Nevada where the pressure
gradient remains the tightest.

Monday through Tuesday. Moisture becomes more widespread across
the entire cwa with a bit high PWAT values. This should produce
mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA with a
few stronger slower moving cells possibly being wet. Dynamic
become slightly better but the main driving force on convection
will continue to be solar heating thus restricted mainly to
afternoon and evening hours.

Wednesday and Thursday. The moisture and thus convection should
become more concentrated along the NV/UT border as the trough axis
drifts more eastward.

Hottest temperatures will occur Saturday and will rise into the
lower to mid 90s. Temperatures moderate early next week with
rising relative humidity and cloud cover expected to suppress
temperatures slightly. High temperatures for much of next week
starting Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows
generally in the 50s approaching 60.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions for all terminals for the next 24
hours. KTPH and KELY may see some isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon but the chance remains slim.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms south of Highway 50
remain possible today. Coverage remains limited with no pressing
concern for critical fire weather conditions.

On Friday, moisture will expand a little further north. Isolated
showers/storms possible across the higher terrain in central NV,
with isolated dry thunderstorms possible in the valleys and along
the northern fringes of the moisture. In the slowest storms there
will be a small chance for wetting rain.

Into the weekend and early next week, coverage expands as moisture
is pulled northward into northern and central NV. This will need
to be watched closely as storms across northern Nevada could
initially be dry or hybrid. Chances for convection may linger
into the middle portion of next week.




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