Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
152 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures will
prevail today through Friday. An upper air disturbance with
limited moisture could trigger a few dry thundertstorms on
Saturday mainly across portions of northeast Nevada. Otherwise,
increasingly hot weather will return over the weekend through the
4th of July Holiday with daytime highs climbing back up into the


.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Friday evening. Northwest flow
aloft will give way to weak upper- level ridging which will keep
northern and central Nevada in quiet, dry weather with near normal
temperatures through the end of the week. Highs today will range
from the upper 70s in the far north, to 80s most other locations
except lower 90s farther south in northern Nye County. Clear
skies tonight will allow lows to dip into the comfortable 40s to
lower 50s before afternoon readings begin to warm up a few degrees
on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday

Weak northwest flow in place at the start of the long term with
Pacific ridge axis just to the west and a trof digging into the
central conus. The ridge axis shifts over Nevada on Friday,
raising temperatures a bit.

Beginning Saturday, models drop out of sync some with the GFS
cutting off from the main flow in California a weak upper low and
the EC bringing a shortwave through Nevada. Neither scenario
looks to have enough moisture present so dry weather looks to stay
in place.

Further model divergence occurs over the weekend with the EC
building the ridge over the west and the GFS beginning to dig a
trof off of the coast. What the models do agree on is that
temperatures will be hot whether from the EC higher heights or
the GFS southwest flow with most valleys well into the 90`s.

If a trof does in fact suppress the ridge, there could be a
frontal passage on July 4th, but forecast confidence is very low
at this time.


AVIATION...VFR cigs and ceilings expected through Wednesday. West
to Northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph all terminals on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a low probability for
an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of KEKO Wednesday


.FIRE WEATHER...Northwest flow aloft today will give way to weak
upper-level ridging on Friday. As a result, mostly sunny and
seasonably warm weather will prevail the next two days. Northwest
winds could still gust up to around 25 mph in a few areas during
the peak of afternoon heating today before veering north and
diminishing this evening. Expect even lighter winds on Friday.
However, daytime minimum relative humidities will continue to
reach critical levels each day. An upper-air disturbance with
limited moisture could trigger a few dry thunderstorms on Saturday
afternoon and evening mainly across portions of northeast Nevada.
Otherwise, dry and increasingly hot weather will build back into
the region over the weekend through the 4th of July Holiday with
high temperatures climbing back up into the 90s.




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