Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 250922
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
222 AM PDT Thu Aug 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...There will be a few thunderstorms popping up across
central Nevada today. Otherwise pleasant weather can be expected
for most of northern and central Nevada through the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. The models are in
good agreement this morning. There will be a few thunderstorms
popping up south of highway 50 today. Otherwise, drier and cooler
conditions will be expanding across the state.

Today through this evening. Low pressure will move along the
U.S.-Canadian border north of the New England states. The
associated trough axis will extend southwest back towards Nevada.
The axis of the trough will limit the northerly flow of moisture.
Convection will primarily occur south of highway 50. High
temperatures will be in the 80s.

Midnight tonight through Friday. The low pressure trough will
shift east and shut off the moisture supply to central Nevada. Dry
conditions will be had by all. High temperatures will be in the
80s. Lows will drop down into the 40s, with some lower valleys
dipping into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday.

Overall forecast confidence is good until Monday; thereafter,
differences creep in...but surface impacts are similar. 5-wave
pattern resemble a positive long wave trof until Sunday, when
another long wave trough forms offshore of the Pacific NW. The
CWA looks to remains on the tail end of this neutral orientated
long wave trough, which typically leads to dry and breezy/windy
conditions. The main differences between the long range models and
their ensemble means is the eventually placement and strength of
the Pacific High, centered east of central or southern CA,
depending on the model. This plays a role in the speed and path of
a rather strong 500mb trough and associated sfc boundary or
boundaries diving southeast from the Gulf of AK that effect the
area late Monday through next Wednesday. In addition, a cut off
500mb low(or several weak lows) that meanders in the North Pacific
Ocean is another feature that the models are disagreeing on. This
is not unusual as the models struggle in resolving the actually
placement of it. All agree it is picked up by the 500mb trough
sometime on Tuesday, but it`s path thereafter is in question as it
pushes east towards a CA landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday. The
latest EC and it`s ensemble mean are keeping the progression
slower while deepening further than the GFS. Either way the
result will be the return of monsoonal moisture across the central
and eastern portions of Nevada late Wednesday and into Thursday.

Sensible weather:

Precip
A thunderstorm or two possible Saturday evening in White Pine
County due to remaining moisture, but chances are pretty slim.
No convection is expect til next Thursday on the long term due to
the dry southwesterly flow aloft. Thursday will see the return of
thunderstorms with the monsoonal push in central and eastern
Nevada.

Winds
No issues expected until Tuesday when the approaching 500mb trof
and frontal boundary should increase the winds out of the
southwest. They could becomes quite strong and gusty out of the
southwest on Tuesday to Thursday afternoons depending on which
model verifies. This could a pose a fire weather hazard as
dewpoints will be quite low, especially during the afternoon hours
due to compressional drying over the Mtns.

Temps
Near average highs and lows to begin with Saturday night and
Sunday. Temps warm to above average through Tuesday in response
to rising heights under southwesterly flow aloft. Regardless of
which model is used, Monday looks to be the warmest with most
areas hitting 90 or better. As heights fall late Tuesday and
further on Wednesday, near average high temps can be expected by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. There
will be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in eastern
northern Nye and southern White Pine Counties. KELY could be
impacted from the storms with gusty outflows being the largest
threat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across Fire Zone 455 and far eastern Fire
Zone 457 this afternoon. Expect a mix of wet and dry storms with
driest storms further north and wetter storms across southern-most
portions of the zones. Little active weather is expected from
Friday through early next week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92/99/99/92


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