Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 152146
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AND A STRONG TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN IS WEDGED BETWEEN A TROUGH
NEARING THE WEST COAST AND A FOUR CORNERS HIGH. MAY SEE SOME HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR ON TUESDAY
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE GET PULLED UP INTO THE TROUGH ENERGY
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS
AND NAM SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DELAYED
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE DRY AND
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS HAVING
HARD TIME WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM
ODILE. STILL...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
A 300MB JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE EC AND GEM BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO
EASTERN NV WHILE GFS SHOVES THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY EXCEPT MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NV.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE WITH PUSHING UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR
SANTA BARBARA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EXTREME WHITE PINE
AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEEP
LOW POPS. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY...GFS AND GEM KICKS THE UPPER LOW NE WHICH WOULD BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE EC
DEVELOPS A STRONG RIDGE AND KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS ...KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT
MONDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL MAY IMPACT KELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND KEKO AND
KELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP EITHER TODAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS TRANSITIONING TO WET
THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE SPREADING UP FROM
SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ZONES
THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. MAIN
CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AND THE TREND TO KEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WILL NEED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE
JUST WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. DRIER WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87/96




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