Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 310908
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE HAD BY ALL TODAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST. SOME SMOKE WILL INVADE THE SKY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADAR IS
PICKING UP A FEW ECHOS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT NOT MUCH IS HITTING THE GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE AND INTO
UTAH. AS A RESULT...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN.
THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY A FEW HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH..A RESULT OF THE 95 KNOT JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF SMOKE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BASED ON THE 3KM HRRR.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A COOL NIGHT
ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA...LIKE
WILDHORSE...WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ADDED SMOKE OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE CALIFORNIA FIRES IN THE NORTH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL H5 PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL REMAINS DRY OVER THE CWA BUT A
LITTLE WARMER. BY THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS MAINTAIN A TROF OVER
NEVADA. HOWEVER...EC HINTING AT A COLD FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS HANGS BACK THE TROF OFF THE
CA COAST KEEPING NV DRY. THE EC PUSHES THE TROF EAST AND WEAKENS IT
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
...EXCEPT GFS SOLUTION IS THE WARMEST HAVING THE CWA MUCH WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 5 MILES AT TIME AT KWMC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH SPEEDS 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY ON...ESPECIALLY IN FIRE ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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