Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 301021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
321 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture continues to increase across the
state, particularly across central Nevada. Strong daytime heating
under the high pressure ridge will produce afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Moisture is not as deep across
eastern Elko County so thunderstorms that do form will tend to be
dry with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across central Nevada
where monsoon moisture is deeper. Gusty winds could accompany
thunderstorms that develop through the weekend. Temperatures will
cool down a few degrees next week but still remain hot and
slightly above normal.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Radar and satellite imagery
show stratifying convection across northeast Nevada. A similar
upward trend in convection today as insolation ramps up. Markedly
increased mid-level monsoon moisture is present across the state.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the
eastern half of the state as a dry slot makes its way into
northern and north central Nevada. Higher storm motions across
northern Nevada with the aid of a short wave trough could
contribute to higher gusts associated with the downdrafts of
thunderstorms that develop. Overall, winds will be a bit higher
today across the state today but primary wind concern will be
from erratic gusts of up to 50 mph with the thunderstorms and
outflow boundaries that will develop this afternoon. Temperatures
will be couple of degrees cooler today and noticeably cooler under
locations that develop dense cloud cover associated with

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday. Large upper level
ridge remains the main story for northern and central
Nevada. Models are showing the center of the ridge over the
southern portions of the United States, while several weak troughs
are forecast to be over the northern Rockies and the Pacific
Northwest States. By Monday, the aforementioned trough will bring
afternoon breezes to mainly northern Nevada. However, looking at
the wind gusts, speeds are still expected to stay below the
critical 30 mph for fire weather. Some residual moisture is
expected to remain in the east and central, and have kept
convective activity going in those areas. Look for highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s in the central and mid to upper 90s in the

Tuesday through Friday. The upper flow is forecast to take a more
westerly turn. This will tend to dry out the forecast area. PoP
grids reflect this thinking, with the threat of convective
activity remaining in portions of White Pine County and extreme
eastern Nevada through this period. Highs will be near normal with
readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s through this period.


.AVIATION...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. VCTS has been kept in the central TAF sites of KELY and
KTPH, as well as KEKO, for this afternoon. Strong outflow gusts
to 45 knots, along with BLDU and local MVFR conditions, are
possible with any storm.


.FIRE WEATHER...Critical dry thunderstorm threat is expected to
remain over much of northern Nevada. Some precipitation was seen
over fire zones 454 and 455 from automated sites, but by and
large, most storms were mainly dry. Conditions are expected to be
similar as LCL heights in central Nevada are between 500 and 550
mb. Slightly drier air has been noted for fire zone 468, and near
term HRRR and RAP models are showing some slightly more stable
air; therefore the RFW was dropped. In the other locales - instability,
some monsoon moisture and effects from a Pacific Northwest trough
will aid in the development of dry thunderstorms at critical
coverage levels across zones 469, 470 454, 455, and 457. Across
fire zones 469 and 470, monsoon moisture is not quite as deep as
observed in zone 455 so a dry thunderstorm mode will predominate.
Also, storm speeds in these zones are expected to be in the 15-20
mph range. The deepest moisture and instability will exist across
fire zone 455, White Pine County. Thunderstorms there are expected
to start out dry and coverage is expected to increase to critical
levels as the day wears on. Main threats today will be lightning
strikes outside the main rain shafts with outflow winds of 50 mph
causing new fire starts to spread rapidly.


Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central Lander
and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-Northern Nye
County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway 50-
Southwestern and Central Elko County-White Pine County.



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