Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 271108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
308 AM PST Mon Feb 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A winter disturbance along with a cold front will move
across the state today. Snow showers are expected to diminish
late this morning across northern Nevada and later this afternoon
across the central part of the state. Light snow showers could
linger across mainly Elko county through Tuesday as weak
disturbance moves over the region. Dry conditions are expected for
the latter part of the week, with a possibility of some showers
returning by next weekend.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Frontal boundary along with
widespread snow will move through the northern NV today, likely
tapering off late this morning. Cold front and attendant snow
showers will slide southward into central NV later this morning,
with snow diminishing this afternoon. lingering moisture
accompanying a couple more weak short waves moving through
northeast Nevada will keep light snow showers across the higher
elevations of Elko county through Tuesday. Temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 20s today behind the cold front coupled
with extensive cloud cover but some of the low valleys in Humboldt
and northern Nye counties could reach the mid 30s.
Wednesday, expect dry conditions across the entire state as
ridging begins to build across the region. TEmperatures will
begin to rise with highs above freezing in most locations with 40s
expected in the lower valleys.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. No major changes were
made to the long range forecast. Only minor adjustments were made
to pops and temps.
Wednesday through Saturday, heights rise with ridging keeping the
moisture well to the north. This will provide a nice warm up and
dry weather. In fact, many locations across northern NV will see
highs approaching 50, with lower elevations and places south of
highway 50 seeing temps well into the 50s.
By Sunday, the heights begin to lower slightly. This will bring
the chance for precip across extreme northern Nevada. Right now,
the brunt of the moisture still stays north. However, a weak
impulse embedded in the nearly zonal flow could clip northern NV.
This would be a very quick shot of light precip, but confidence is
low this far into the long range.
.AVIATION...A winter disturbance continues to cause issues at
northern NV TAF sites. KWMC has been in IFR for several hours
with KEKO bouncing between MVFR and IFR. This will continue
through the morning with improving conditions at KWMC by 13-14Z
and KEKO by 18Z. As the system slides south, KELY will begin to
pick up some light/moderate snow. MVFR/IFR is likely off and on
through the day. KTPH will only see light snow showers, but CIGS
could easily lower KTPH into MVFR with an isolated shot at IFR.
Conditions at KELY wont improve until later Monday evening.
.HYDROLOGY...Flooding will continue along the lower Humboldt River
until further notice. Fluctuations in the river levels at Battle
Mountain...Comus...and Winnemucca all indicate that multiple flood
waves are moving slowly downstream. This is likely a result of the
various precip events and snowmelt periods further upstream last
week. Next round of precip today will be mostly snow for the
Humboldt basin. Accumulations of several inches in the mountains
of the Humboldt River basin, with a trace to a few inches in the
valleys are expected. This may have to be dealt with later this
week when the temperatures warm again into the 40s over large
areas. Even a slow trickle of snowmelt will keep the river from
falling as quickly as we`d all like.