Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230450
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1250 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Current forecast remains on track this evening.  Did some minor
adjustments to the hourly grids just to bring them closer to obs.
Current headline alignment continues to look good.  No real changes
to the forecast at this time.

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A Freeze Warning remains in effect for late tonight through mid
morning Thursday for portions of southern Indiana and east central
KY.  Still expecting lows to reach the 28-32 degree range which
could damage any outdoor vegetation.

For Thursday, expect the beginning of a warm-up going into the
weekend. Upper level ridging will begin to increase across the
Midwest causing moderation of the airmass.  Highs on Thu should
reach the upper 50s to upper 60s.  There is a small signal in some
of the model data that a subtle shortwave may cause a few sprinkles
over southern IN/northern KY late Thu afternoon/evening, but made
the forecast dry in coordination with neighboring offices since any
precip will be battling very dry low levels.

Thu night low temps should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

...Warm and Unsettled Weather On the Way...

Friday - Sunday...

Upper level ridging will increase over the region on Friday allowing
highs to warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Southerly winds will
become gusty Fri and continue to be gusty through the weekend ahead
of a strong low pressure system moving through the upper Midwest.
This low pressure system will provide us multiple chances for
showers/t-storms Sat/Sun.  The best coverage of convection looks to
be late Sat/Sat night.

Temps Sat/Sun will be in the low to mid 70s for highs and 50s for
lows.

Monday - Wednesday...

Monday looks to be dry during the morning hours and possibly the
warmest day in the 7-day forecast with many locations reaching the
mid 70s for highs.  Showers/storms will return to the region Monday
afternoon as an upper level trough approaches the Ohio Valley.

Convection chances for Tues/Wed are less certain as models diverge
on many weaker waves potentially moving through the region causing
more rounds of showers/storms.  Temps look to remain in the 60s for
highs to upper 40s/lower 50s for lows.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, with
thickening cirrus through the day and a mid-level ceiling coming in
late as return flow sets up. ENE winds will stay up overnight, then
come around to SSE by midday in response. It`s a bit early to
include LLWS mentions for Thu evening, but forecast soundings
suggest a 40-45 kt low-level jet developing with a strong inversion
to focus the speed shear after roughly 03Z Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ031>037-
     039>043-047>049-055>057-066-067.

IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ077>079-092.

&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS


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