Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231841
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

High pressure over the northeastern United States will continue to
provide us with light northeast breezes under clear skies through
the short term.  River valley fog can be expected once again
Wednesday morning in the cool, stable air.

The next couple of nights will be on the chilly side, with low
temperatures Wednesday morning similar to Tuesday morning...and then
a degree or two warmer Thursday morning. Wednesday will be another
chamber of commerce weather day with blue skies and highs in the
middle and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Our remarkable stretch of fine late September weather continues...

The upper air pattern over North America from Thursday through the
weekend will become very blocky, with individual upper level
disturbances moving little. Anomalously strong ridging at 500mb of
up to 3 standard deviations above the mean will build over Michigan
towards the weekend, peaking in strength during the day Saturday.
Deep layer moisture will be relegated to the northern Gulf states
and the southern Appalachians.

Surface high pressure will persist over New England and the eastern
Great Lakes, with an extension southwest along the Ohio River, from
Thursday all the way through Sunday. This will bring multiple days
of sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures will warm some each
day, and will be late summer-like by Friday and Saturday. Highs will
gradually rise from the upper 70s Thursday to possibly the lower 80s
for Saturday and Sunday. Dewpoints will slowly increase, but it will
not become what we call humid. Lows will generally range from the
mid 50s to near 60.

For Monday and Tuesday, a deep trough will become established over
the northern Rockies, while strong ridging aloft will continue over
the Great Lakes through the mid-Atlantic. Warm temperatures will
continue all across the Lower Ohio Valley. A weak upper level
disturbance, originating over the lower Mississippi Valley, is
forecast by several models to slowly move northeast, bringing some
moisture and rain chances to the Commonwealth. The speed of this
feature, as it will be totally divorced from the westerlies much
farther north, is very much in question. Timing of any potential
precipitation`s arrival varies from Monday according to the ECMWF,
to Wednesday, according to the latest GFS. Currently, have
introduced a chance of thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, with
quite a bit of uncertainty about timing.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected this period. A light
northeasterly wind will persist as high pressure remains to our
northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........13





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