Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 071128
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. AS EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLING ITS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
WITH IT NOW LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
QUINCY ILLINOIS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS
METRO THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. ST. LOUIS IS STILL 80
DEGREES AT 3 AM IN THE MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST NEARLY UNCHANGED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES.

CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TODAY AND PUSH BULK OF PRECIP S OF
THE CWA BY THIS EVE, OR AT LEAST ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF PRECIP LIFTING NWD BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE NWD AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LIFTS NWD
BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN ON WED AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THRU THE REGION.

WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED IN AREA AS WELL AS INTO WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS, HAVE CONTINUED A COOL TREND FOR WED DUE TO RA EXPECTED
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREV FORECAST AND
FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE TEMPS MORE.

FOR FRI AND BEYOND, MDLS PROG HEIGHT RISES THRU NEXT WEEKEND AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE FROM
GOING FORECAST, BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC FNT. MDLS PROG THE FNT REMAINING JUST N OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W,
AREA COMES UNDER NW FLOW AND SHUD ALLOW THE FNT, AS WELL AS STORMS,
TO DROP SWD INTO THE AREA.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCOU TO KPPQ WILL STEADILY MARCH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND IN
ITS WAKE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT AND BUILD
NORTH INTO THE CWA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE EAST. BELIEVE INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILING WILL IMPROVE WITH
TIME TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KUIN AND KCOU.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINAL COMPLEX. NORTH WIND TO TAKE OVER
WITH MVFR CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING. NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
     MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MONROE IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX


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