Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 181225
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NOTED AROUND 925MB REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS
MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHIFTING FROM KJBR AND KMKL THIS MORNING TO KMEM AND KTUP
LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED VSBYS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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