Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 271223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
723 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016


Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

At 3AM, Latest water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough
traversing the lower Mississippi Valley with the main axis nearly
centered over the Mid-South. Associated scattered light to
moderate showers are occurring across the region with a couple of
isolated thunderstorms near Jonesboro, Arkansas at this hour. As
the wave continues to lift out this morning, showers will come to
an end from west to east. Despite cloud cover hanging around for
most of the day, another warm day is anticipated. Highs will top
out in the mid to upper 70s areawide.

A record setting weather pattern will continue across the Mid-
South over the next seven days as an upper level ridge builds over
the southern United States. Highs will generally be in the low to
mid 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s. With less than 5 days to
go, all four climate sites are currently ranked at either number
one or two for all-time warmest Octobers. I don`t see any reason
why we won`t set the warmest October on record at all four sites
as temperatures remain near record highs each day through the end
of the month.

Both synoptic models suggest a pattern break by late next week.
Timing and location of shortwaves at this point are not in
agreement, so confidence is low right now. Nonetheless, a decent
chance of rain looks possible late next week and possibly a cool
down by next weekend.




VFR conditions should continue through late this evening as mid
level cloud cover persists through the day and mixes out by early
evening. Reduced vsbys and cigs should redevelop in fog/low
stratus late tonight...except at KMEM where VFR conditions should

Winds will be westerly/southwesterly at the start of the period
and become northeasterly this evening. Wind speeds should remain
light in speeds.




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