Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS IN THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW IS TAKING PLACE 800-900 MILES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHERE A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD IS
BEGINNING ITS ASSAULT ON THE NORTHEASTERN US. IN THE MIDSOUTH
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE PALATABLE FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 30S. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A 25-35
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. IF WE
ARE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT GET MY HOPES UP FOR SNOW IN A FORECAST
BEYOND JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. CHANCES ARE...GUIDANCE WILL TREND
DRIER...WARMER...OR SHIFT MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER.

30

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE 06Z TAF SET AS VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A BRIEF
LOWERING OF CIGS TO NEAR 3000 FT AT MKL AND TUP WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DECK OVER WESTERN TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 10 KT RANGE WITH A GRADUAL BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THEY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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