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000
FXUS64 KMEG 091042
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
442 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE CLOUDY AND COLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAD MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND ONLY LIGHT
FOG WAS BEING REPORTED IN A FEW SPOTS. THUS A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT
WEATHERWISE THAN LAST NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IS THAT THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION AND IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ONE MORE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS MORNING
LEAVING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
PUSH OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH KEEPING IT
VERY COLD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE
OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND AMOUNTS
FORECAST THROUGH NORTH MS. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAINLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. ATTM...THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS...GRADUALLY BECOMING FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONLY MINOR
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NO MORE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY. QUITE COLD
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MEX
GUIDANCE INDICATES. ANOTHER SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WIND CHILL READINGS AS THEY MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN CASE IT DOES
NOT WARM UP AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THESE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VIS HAS IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS OR HIGHER AT ALL SITES BUT CIGS
REMAIN IFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT JBR. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE THE LIFR CIGS WE HAD IN PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. FEEL LIKE WE WILL
SEE OVERALL SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS WITH NEAR STEADY VIS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE WANTS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY EVEN TO VFR LEVELS...BASED ON EXPERIENCE...FEEL
LIKE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT WILL
BRING LEVELS TO 5KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
TUP.

RAIN AT TUP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP...AND MEM IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING -DZ BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A PREVAILING
CONDITION. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE BACK NEAR TUP LATE TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  38  24  36  23 /  10  40  10  10
MKL  36  22  35  18 /  10  40  10  10
JBR  32  20  31  19 /  10  20  10  10
TUP  44  29  40  23 /  10  80  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$