Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY..

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MORE OBSERVATIONS COMING IN WITH A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME QUITE STABLE JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...AT WHICH TIME SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE MOVE NORTHWARD.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS CLOUDY AND COOL WITH EITHER CALM OR
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY FOG WAS BEING OBSERVED ALONG WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE...THOUGH RADAR WAS CLEAR.

A LOT OF WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
MIDSOUTH DOES ANOTHER ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WITH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE TWO MAIN CULPRITS SHOWING UP ON WATER
VAPOR...THE FIRST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIVING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SECOND A VERY COLD AIRMASS REFLECTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE DAKOTAS. BOTH WITH CROSSHAIRS POINTING AT
US. FOR TODAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL CLIMB A
GOOD TWENTY FIVE TO THIRTY DEGREES BY EVENING AS STRONG WAA DRIVES
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDWEST. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. WITH
RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THE
GROUND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...LET
ALONE UP TO THE POSSIBLE 4 INCHES...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD.

HAVE GONE WITH A GFS AND EURO BLEND WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS
AND TIMING OF SUBFREEZING AIR/WINTER PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PRESIDENT`S DAY
STORM A COUPLE OF WEEKS BACK. LATEST 00Z RUNS INDICATE THE PRECIP
SWITCH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 7 AM OVER RANDOLPH AND CLAY
COUNTIES...THEN SLOWLY REACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THE BULLS EYE NORTH OF A CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNH
TENNESSEE LINE. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA. HAVE INCREASED FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF I-40 WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
A BIT LONGER. BUT BELIEVE THIS REGION WILL CHANGOVER TO MOSTLY
SLEET BY EVENING. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
FINALLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A WINTER STORM
WATCH AS AN ADDITIONAL MODEL RUN TODAY WILL HELP HONE IN BOTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND WINTRY WEATHER...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TOMORROW
NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS MAY AID IN
CAUSING SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...AND IT WILL CERTAINLY DRIVE
WINDCHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THOUGH THE EURO HANGS ON TO IT
A BIT LONGER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL BE COLD AND DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...DUE TO THE ICE AND SNOW
REMAINING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH EAST
WINDS 4-8 MPH WILL TRIGGER WINDCHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH...A WINDCHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED.

EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD....THOUGH THE EURO DOES INDICATE A GULF COASTAL LOW
BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT THE MIDSOUTH DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS FEATURE
MAY TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. A SLOW WARM UP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING EARLY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO CRASH INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. DRIZZLE IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT MEM...AND BELIEVE THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH A RESULTING
REDUCTION IN VSBY DOWN TO 4SM OR SO. AS A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH
ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHT LIFTING OF CLOUD BASES MAY OCCUR TOMORROW
BUT IT WILL BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION KEEPS RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AT JBR AND MEM AS STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED POST 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN AT JBR AROUND THE 03Z AND
POINT SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY LATER. A BAND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR TUP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WELL. TIMING TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE IN FUTURE TAF SETS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



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