Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 272331
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF FEATURES
PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN AND
GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE BROOKLAND
ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.

NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT THEN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT PRODUCE IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE KTUP
AREA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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