Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Updated to add 18Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1030 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/


The cold front is currently over extreme north Mississippi and
will push more to the south into Central Mississippi by this
evening. Current forecast is on track to linger the chance of
showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front this
afternoon while a northeast wind north of the boundary provides a
cooler and drier advection.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

Skies are mostly clear across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures in the 70s. All of the showers and
thunderstorms that moved into north Mississippi a few hours ago
have died out. The cold front which moved into the region Tuesday
is now over extreme north Mississippi at this time.

This front is expected to move slowly south today reaching
central Mississippi this afternoon. Some additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the front today. Temperatures will
not be as warm as they have been over the past few days with highs
in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the area tonight and remain over the
region for the next few days. This will result in dry weather for
Thursday and Friday with temperatures remaining below normal.

The forecast for Saturday through Tuesday will be dependent on
what happens with what is still the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Harvey. The expectations are that the remnants will
strengthen later today as it moves across the Bay of Campeche and
into the Gulf of Mexico.

The current computer models bring Harvey into the Texas coast
sometime late Friday afternoon or early evening and bring it to
the northeast. Moisture from this system could start moving into
the forecast area as early as Saturday with some rain possible in
portions of north Mississippi. The chance of rain will gradually
move north over the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday. The 00Z
models show the heaviest rain remaining south of the forecast area
but there still remain much uncertainty as to when and where the
heaviest rain will be so will not make any changes to the HWO
regarding a heavy rain threat. Temperatures will remain below
normal from Saturday through Tuesday.



18Z TAFs

VCSH possible at TUP this afternoon otherwise, mainly rainfree
conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites. N/NE winds between
8-10 kts will become lighter tonight and increase again to 7-10
kts on Thursday. Patchy fog may develop at MKL/TUP late tonight
towards sunrise and perhaps produce temporary MVFR conditions.




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