Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 290441
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO START FREEZE WARNING AT 29/03Z...AND TO ADJUST EVENING
SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW STATIONS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S AS OF 8 PM. HAVE
PUSHED UP THE START TIME OF THE FREEZE WARNING TO 10 PM THIS
EVENING WHEN COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER SHOULD REACH
FREEZING. SECOND...SWATH OF 800MB MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE
ON BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF CLOUDS BY SUNRISE. SO LEFT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FROM A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY MIDWEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON MINIMUM TEMPS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TEMPS IN SOME AREAS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH AREA INTO A FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR 1-2 TIERS OF ZONES SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING.

ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SIZABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS. SURFACE TRAJECTORIES AREN/T IDEAL
FOR MOISTURE RETURN...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DRIVES A FRONT TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MUCAPE IS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
MISSISSIPPI ZONES...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. RIPPLES IN THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL ASSIST WITH LIFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. CAPE
FORECASTS SUGGEST SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIP...WITH CAPE
FORECASTS AGAIN SUGGESTING SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR. ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MS VALLEY
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FAR OUT...THERE IS QUITE A DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL AT
00Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE EURO HAS THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THIS TIME WILL BROAD-BRUSH POPS ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DETAILS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

GW

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A SHRINKING BAND OF MID CLOUD WILL ERODE AWAY OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH THE TAF SITES GOING CLEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THOUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A QUICK INCREASE
IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL SITES WITH LOW END VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER FURTHER DURING THE MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON
AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN BACK AS A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL. KTUP WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
AFTER 30/06Z.

JLH

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
     POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALCORN-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON MS-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     TATE-TUNICA-UNION.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SHELBY.

&&

$$


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