Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 071706
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION...LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS. THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP ALONG
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS TO
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH. CURRENT SCATTERED COVERAGE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE AND PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THAT
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM
BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

UPDATED ZONES AND FORECAST WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESEE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL STALL BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA.

SHORT TERM...
MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A FAVORABLE
PRE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS A LLJ
PULLS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA
WHERE LIFT WILL BE GREATER. SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 2500-3500
J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND 0-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 DEGREES C/KM. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL WANE A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY..LEAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL USHER IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELIEF WILL COME BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION.

JPM3

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
JBR...MEM AND MKL. JBR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF LONGER DURATION
TSRA PERHAPS ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 4SM. WINDS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED ABOVE 10 KTS AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SIMILAR
VALUES.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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