Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 100513
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 902 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Skies are clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper teens to around 30 degrees.
Another cold night is on tap as temperatures will fall into the
mid teens to mid 20s overnight. Current forecast looks good with
no update needed.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Though skies were sunny...temperatures this hour were running
about fifteen degrees below normal...with readings in the 30s.
Winds were generally northerly and under 10 mph.

Next 36 hours...surface high pressure over the Mid Mississippi
Valley will slide across the Tennessee River tonight...reaching
the Appalachians tomorrow. Skies will start off clear...becoming
partly cloudy tomorrow. This should allow for a second round of
cold overnight lows...with readings likely to dip into the teens
across the north and east. Surface winds will swing southeast
tomorrow with warmer temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Clouds will become thicker by evening with milder overnight lows.

Sunday through Friday...the near zonal upper level flow will
slowly shift to a broad trough pattern this period as the next
upper low center in central Canada pivots southeast towards the
northern Great Lakes. This will first push a Pacific front and
airmass through the Midsouth...with milder temperatures and
periods of rain. The best window for precipitation seen by the
models is from Sunday evening through Monday mid morning...with
many folks seeing about a half of an inch. Later Monday and into
Tuesday have kept pops low in the southeast counties where the
frontal moisture will quickly slow as it becomes parallel to the
upper flow. Drier air will allow for some breaks in cloud cover in
the north and west. Tuesday night the second push from the
Canadian low will drive a reinforcing arctic airmass
southward...reaching the Midsouth on Wednesday. Any remaining
moisture stirred by this front appears light...with a rain and
snow mix possible across the north and east. No accumulations are
anticipated. The GFS and ECMWF do have slight differences with
regards to this cold snap with the EURO slower and a tad drier.
For now have stuck with the GFS solution with Thursday looking
dry and cold. Friday will start off dry with increasing clouds as
the next disturbance moves in from the west. Temperatures this
period will start off at or slightly above normal...cooling to
around ten degrees below normal later in the week.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAFs

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Light East to
Northeast winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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