Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW


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