Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 242001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Saturday...Weak high pressure will settle across Florida and
the eastern Gulf tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move
through the southeast U.S. and into north Florida Saturday. Main
concern will be with fog formation into late tonight. With light
northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, expecting
areas of fog to develop past midnight, mainly across north central
Florida and the interior. However, recent model runs of the HRRR and
local WRF indicate fog development over much of the area by daybreak
Saturday. Locally dense fog with visibilities of a quarter of a mile
or less will be possible, and if dense fog becomes more widespread,
Dense Fog Advisories may need to be issued by later shifts.

Any fog/stratus should burn off by late morning, with skies becoming
partly sunny and highs warmer than normal in the low to mid 80s.
Drier air out ahead of the front will keep rain chances out of the
forecast.

Saturday night-Monday night...Broad mid level trough across the
central-eastern CONUS will flatten through the period as a ridge
builds northward from the GOMEX into Florida. A fast moving surface
cool front will reach the northern CWA by late evening and will be
pushing into south Florida from the Lake Okeechobee region around
sunrise Sunday. Model guidance continues to indicate the front will
have very little moisture/convergence to work with as it moves into
a very dry airmass with mean 1000-500 mb RH near 30 percent. Narrow
band of cloudiness will accompany dry front, followed by brief visit
of drier/cooler air mass as post-frontal NW flow quickly transitions
to N/NE by early Sunday. Post-frontal CAA will push min temps down
into the 50s areawide, with some L60s along the SE coast. Noticeably
cooler/drier air Sunday with maxes in the U60s-70F along the coast
north of the Cape where onshore trajectory will advect across cooler
shelf waters, M-U70s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday-Friday...A series of short wave troughs ride over the top of
the ridge from mid to late week, gradually flattening it in the
process. Increasingly warm (hot) temps (M-U80s) will prevail Tuesday
and Wednesday before a frontal boundary sags either into (12Z GFS)
or possibly through (12Z ECM) the CWA beginning Thursday. A large
amount of uncertainty exists for late next week given the differences
in the frontal position and associated wind/moisture fields. Overall
trend should be toward increasing rain chances and cooler temps for
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR through this evening, then expecting patchy/areas of
fog to develop past midnight producing cig/vis reductions to
IFR/MVFR, especially over north central Florida and the interior.
Locally dense fog will be possible. Conditions then improving back
to VFR by late morning Saturday, as fog/stratus dissipates.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Saturday...Weak high pressure settling across Florida and
eastern Gulf will weaken northerly winds over the waters to 5-10
knots. Lingering swells will keep seas up to 7 feet offshore, but
local policy is to not carry an advisory for seas when winds are
5- 10 knots. Therefore will allow SCA to expire, but will keep
small craft exercise caution headlines for seas in overnight.

Seas will continue to fall to 5 feet or less into Saturday
afternoon, with winds becoming westerly and increasing up to
around 10 knots offshore.

Saturday night-Sunday night...Light-moderate westerly flow will
shift to NW/N at 14-18KT as cold front and associated wind surge
spreads southward down the waters overnight. Winds quickly to veer
to NE Sunday morning and E-ESE Sunday night as speeds diminish a bit
to 12-17kt as surface high to the north quickly slides east into the
western Atlantic. Seas about 4-6ft through the rest of the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Surface high builds over western Atlantic with
ridge axis extending west across the central peninsula through mid
week. ESE winds 13-16KT early Monday veer to SE-S and slacken to 10-
13KT  Seas 4-6 ft Monday will gradually subside to 3-4FT. Isolated
showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  82  54  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  83  56  75 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  61  83  59  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  83  60  76 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  61  81  53  73 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  60  83  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  83  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  83  59  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM/DSS...Cristaldi


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