Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240104
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
904 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Locally Heavy Rain Possible along the East Coast Overnight...

Current-Overnight...Surface high pressure continues to encompass the
eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula as Hurricane Maria spins east of
the northern Bahamas well offshore of the EC FL coast. 915 MHZ Cape
wind profilers show dominant ENE/NE winds 15-25 kts off the surface
up through 10.0 kft. NE surface winds will decrease through the
night, but may remain elevated near the immediate coast. Occasional
showery precipitation will move onto the east coast overnight and
dissipate further inland. An isolated rumble of thunder will also be
possible. Locally heavy downpours can be expected, perhaps
minor/nuisance flooding if showers move over the same locations.
Lows will average in the lower to mid 70s interior and mid to upper
70s near the east coast.

Sunday...Previous...Hurricane Maria will move NNW offshore of east
central FL with increasingly high surf expected to impact the
beaches along with a high risk or rip currents. The high surf will
also begin to bring some erosion to the beaches likely around the
time of high tide at mid day. Low level winds will be northeast with
scattered showers likely ongoing in the morning along the coast and
then moving southwestward into the interior by afternoon with the
highest coverage across the srn interior. Will continue a slight
chance for a lightning storm generally from the Cape south and into
the interior in the afternoon. Considerable cloud cover near the
east coast in the morning will spread inland by afternoon.
Highs upper 80s coast to around 90 interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR outside of convection. ISOLD-SCT showers
dissipating into the interior overnight. Higher chances near the
coast, especially Space/Treasure coasts. Brief MVFR in onshore
moving convection. NE winds decreasing into late night, though
remaining a bit elevated along the immediate coast. Some higher
gusts also possible in passing showers. Models suggesting drier air
moving E to W across the area after sunrise Sun with highest threat
south of KMCO and over the southern interior in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight...Large swells from Hurricane Maria continue to
impact the east central Florida coast. Seas will build to over 10
feet offshore and 6 to 9 feet near shore. Generally 15 to 20 kt
northeast winds over the open Atlc. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for all marine zones.

Sunday...Previous...Hurricane Maria will make its closest approach
to east central Florida on Sunday about 450 miles offshore and will
continue moving NNW through the afternoon. Swells will continue to
build to 7 to 10 feet near shore and 10 to 13 feet across the
offshore waters. The seas will be hazardous for small craft and an
Advisory remains in effect.

&&

.Climate...It is the all-time wettest September for KMLB with 0.35
inches today through 9pm bringing the total to 19.78 inches,
breaking the previous record of 19.68 inches from 1948.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Moderate to Major Flooding continues on the St Johns
River with river levels forecast to remain nearly steady then
continue a slow fall early next week into mid-week. The river level
at the St Johns west of Cocoa has nearly reached the peak level set
after Tropical Storm Fay with flooding impacts reported. Shingle
Creek at Campbell has dropped below flood stage and is expected to
drop below action stage by Monday.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Coastal Volusia
     County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Southern
     Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Cristaldi/Combs



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