Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281314

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
914 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Currently...Soundings across Central and N FL show abundant moisture
from lower to mid levels of the atmosphere with overall PWAT near to
just below 2 inches, however there is warmer than normal temperature
aloft with H5 temps registering around -6 to -6.5C along with a
somewhat drier atmosphere over S FL. Abundant sfc heating wl lead to
early development of surface boundaries and this will be the initial
driver for development of afternoon storms. No one particular area
looks to be favored across inland areas when reviewing ltst HRRR
guid and none ofthe coastal areas can be precluded from late
afternoon and evening storms in considering steering level flow out
of the Southwest at 10 to 15 kts. The current forecast highlighting
sct coverage of storms over the bulk of the area is in good shape.

prev disc...

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis shifts south of the area, as frontal
boundary moves into the southeast United States today. A deep W/SW
flow will exist across the region, and while overall PW values
remain around 1.8-2.0 inches, model guidance shows much drier air
moving in from the west between 700-500mb. This mid level dry air
and slight warming of temps aloft has lead to lower MOS PoPs across
the region this afternoon, especially across northern portions of
east central Florida. Greatest chance for showers and storms is
forecast toward the Treasure Coast (around 40 percent) where
greatest moisture resides and lake/sea breeze boundary collisions
are favored. Farther north and inland rain chances will be below
normal, generally ranging from 20-30 percent. Isolated stronger
storms will be possible, especially with any boundary interactions
near the east coast. Main threats will be frequent lightning
strikes, strong downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Limited convection and offshore flow will contribute to high
temperatures in the mid 90s over much of the region, even along the
coast where east coast sea breeze is delayed into mid/late
afternoon. Heat index values will continue to range from 100-105
most areas.


.AVIATION...Drier mid level air forecast to move into the region
should keep shower/storm coverage more isolated over northern
portions of east central Florida into this afternoon. Greater rain
chances will exist toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast with
boundary interactions that occur with the stalled east coast sea
breeze. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any showers and
storms that develop, but due to lower convective coverage for much
of the area will only mention VCTS in the TAFs for now.


Today-Tonight...High pressure ridge axis shifts south of the waters.
W/SW winds up to 10-15 knots will become more southerly into the
afternoon and early evening due to sea breeze development. Seas will
generally range from 1-3 feet. A few stronger offshore moving storms
will be possible today, mainly mid to late afternoon from the Cape





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