Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 301801
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
201 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER
PICTURE AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MOVES LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST
MOTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2
INCHES OR HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM AT AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ALONG WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS THAN STORMS BUT...AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF
THE STORM CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE
MORE OF A DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CALL. HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW
90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

PREVIOUS AFD

SUN-WED...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK
NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING  SHIFTS
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH AND
POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS/VCSH WITH GUSTY WIND
19Z-24Z. VFR 31/00Z THROUGH 31/08Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR 31/08Z TO 31/14Z
DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/MIST/FOG.

.MARINE...

BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS 10-15
KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE MAIN MARINER
CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-TUE..SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME. STORM
MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...WIMMER



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