Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 252021
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH 1 PM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
WINDS WERE EITHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 MPH WITH MANY BEING CLOSER TO THE 5 MPH SPEED. LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND HAS HELD ON LONGER THAN THOUGH THUS
COULD HAVE GONE LOW 60S ON THE MORNING UPDATE INSTEAD OF THE MID
60S. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP IS SHOWING A STRONG 500MB
TROUGH SHARPENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOT
HEEL WITH ITS BASE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY THING ON THE MINUS SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS THAT
THE BEST VORTICITY FIELDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. ABOVE
THE TROUGH...A STRONG 250MB JET MAX...150 KNOTS PLUS...WILL PROVIDE
GOOD UPWARD LIFT AS IT RACES WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THESE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH
RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 50 PERCENT NORTH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE
EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF
FLORIDA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE 250MB JET CORE
DROPS TO THE SOUTH PUTTING CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE BACK LEFT
QUADRANT/DESCENDING VERTICAL MOTION AREA THUS LOSING THE DEEP UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALSO THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE "BIG THREE" OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS...CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS...ALL ARE SUGGESTING RAPID
CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING LATE MORNING WITH PRECIP ALL BUT
DONE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A SHARP INCREASE IN WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE TO ISSUE SOME
SORT OF (LAKE WIND OR) WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10-15 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING WILL DECREASE TO
A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 10 MPH LATE/ TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE L40S
WITH U30S CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND SHELTERED AREAS...M40S METRO AND
M-U40S FAR SOUTH. LOWEST WCI`S LOOK TO BE FLIRTING WITH 33-35F OVER
JUST THE FAR NORTH BY SUNRISE. U30S TO AROUND 40F MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUE-WED (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FL
THROUGH MID WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DOMINATES SOUTHWARD FROM A
DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST STORM/BLIZZARD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER (DRY)
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS REGION LATE TUE. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN COOL... GENERALLY 60S FOR MAXS AND 40S FOR MINS...
AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOCATIONS NORTH OF ORLANDO MAY
ONLY REACH UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS WED AFTERNOON. REMAINING BREEZY
TUE...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND WINDS STILL NEAR 10 MPH OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AGAIN IN THE U30S MANY AREAS.

THU-SUN (PREV)...TRANSITION TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS INTO TEXAS. PLEASANT
PERIOD IN STORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS... L70S DAYTIME AND 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...VFR. NW-SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE TAF SITES WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z WITH VCSH
AND MVFR SKIES. MVFR SKIES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS INITIALLY KLEE AROUND 13Z THEN SPREADING
EAST AND SOUTH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT...THE TWO NOAA BUOYS...009 AND 010...WERE
RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO
SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE
RECORDING 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO CMAN BUOYS AT TRIDENT PIER AND
SEBASTIAN INLET VARIABLE WINDS AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS DETEORIATE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SPREAD SWD OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS PICK UP WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. SEA BUILD RAPIDLY TO 6-8FT IN THE MORNING...AND 7-10FT BY
EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR THE 20-60NM
LEGS FROM 26/09Z (4AM MON MORNING) THROUGH 27/12Z (7AM TUE MORNING).

TUE-FRI...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PGRAD
REMAINING TIGHT AS SECONDARY BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTH WED AND THEN
ONSHORE THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO FL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG
DIFFS WITH POTENTIAL END OF WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS PRODUCE VERY HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 50S DUE TO FRONTAL
PRECIP/COOL ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH LATE NIGHT EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUE-WED AFTERNOONS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUING TUE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  65  41  62 /  50  20  10   0
MCO  52  66  43  63 /  50  20  10   0
MLB  49  69  44  64 /  30  30  10   0
VRB  49  71  45  65 /  30  30  10   0
LEE  52  61  43  62 /  50  20   0   0
SFB  52  67  44  63 /  50  20  10   0
ORL  54  65  45  63 /  50  20  10   0
FPR  47  72  46  64 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI










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