Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 040938
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...

CURRENT-TODAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE HRRR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEING PUSHED ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND PORT
CANAVERAL AND INLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND HIGHS IN MID 80S AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AT THE COAST LOW AND MID
80S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE OCEAN STAYS AROUND.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RETREATS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREAS AND
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH WARM S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LOOKS QUITE DRY SO
RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHY OF ANY RECORDS. IF
THERE IS MORE SFC HEATING THAN EXPECTED...DAYTONA COULD REACH
THEIR RECORD HIGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

THU NIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENT FL. A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL
20 POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE.

FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL FOR DAB/LEE WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OUR FORECAST OF LOWER 70S
FOR ORLANDO METRO MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THIS IS ALREADY 5 DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST (30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SAT-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
FL SAT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN
NEAR CENT FL. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND BUT NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 60S BOTH SAT-SUN ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTH FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MIST AND FOG THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
12 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.

THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY FLOW THU 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15 KNOTS THU NIGHT BUT A STRONGER PRES GRAD WILL BRING NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. SO
SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.

DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  88  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  85  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  87  66  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  87  66  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  85  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WIMMER



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