Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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970
FXUS62 KMLB 290732
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
332 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today/Tonight...High pressure ridging at low/mid-lvls will maintain
the current weather trend for hot conditions as afternoon
temperatures rise well into the 90s. Away from the coast and toward
the interior...temperatures will again soar into the mid 90s with a
few spots finding the upper 90s. Winds will be generally light
except for a mid-day sea breeze that will only serve to keep needed
precipitation away from most coastal locations. Isolated storms east
of I-95 and scattered storms west. Heat indices will climb to 100-
105 degrees with little trouble...with some places peaking to 107
degrees. Building concerns for daytime heat stress. It is a delicate
situation that bears watching even though immediate coastal sections
will have some limited relief from the sea breeze and interior
sections from scattered storms.

Weekend...
The upr ridge responsible for the stretch of excessive heat and
dry conds will be in the process of weakening during the period.
Favorable conds in the form of increasing moisture and instability
will not unfold quickly however, and mentionable rain chcs will
be reserved for inland counties Sat afternoon. A weak easterly
wave is forecast to near S FL late Sat bringing an increase in
avbl moisture to the marine area and S coast by early Sun and
overspreading most of the forecast area during Sun. This combined
with more complete weakening of upr ridge will allow for better
rain chc than past days for both coast and inland locations. MOS
guid favors the srn half of the forecast area for highest pop
mention Sun with influence of passing wave mainly over S to
Central FL.

Extended...A weak to modest wrn Atlc (Bermuda) sfc ridge wl
remain situated near central FL to the eastern Gulf throughout
much of next week. Despite presence of a sfc ridge, absence of
ridging aloft combining with suitable low to mid level moisture
and light gradient flow will lead to iso/sct diurnal boundary
forced convection. Inland locations will be more favored for
measurable pcpn in this regime due to light steering winds.
Unfortunately rainfall totals will be lagging along the immediate
coastline in this forecast outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR thru 15Z with SCT050-060 few sites. Winds less than
5KT generally SSW-SW. ISOLD to SCT mid day convection expected
mainly over the interior this afternoon with VCTS mentioned for
interior sites 18-22Z. ECSB shifts winds to onshore 16-18Z coastal
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Generally light S-SW wind flow under surface high
pressure ridge maintaining seas 1-2 ft except occasional 3 ft well-
offshore north of Cape Canaveral. 10 knot onshore flow during the
afternoon behind the sea breeze. Only isolated showers and storms.

Weekend/next week...Favorable conditions are forecast for the
marine area due to presence of a high pressure ridge in proximity
to the waters. Winds generally 10 kt or less and seas around 2 ft
nearshore and around 2 to 3 feet beyond the immediate coast are
expected this weekend and into next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  96  76  95  75 /  40  20  20  10
MLB  92  77  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  92  76  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  96  77  94  77 /  30  20  20  20
SFB  97  77  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  95  77  94  77 /  30  20  20  10
FPR  92  74  92  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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