Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 060922
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
422 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A negatively tilted upper trough over the lower MS valley
early this morning will dampen/fill as it moves E/NE to the mid
atlc coast tonight. Assocd sfc low pressure over northern MS will
track northeast then a secondary sfc low will develop along the
Carolina coast by mid day and become dominant. A couple of bands
of convection extending SW from the FL panhandle into the gulf of
mexico and will push east across the peninsula during the day.
The forecast area remains firmly in the warm sector with deep
moisture transported northward producing precipitable water
values 2.0-2.1 inches and sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower
70s. Low level wind fields have increased to 35-40 knots though
the axis of the low level jet will remain to our north.

Scattered showers will push into our far northern sections early
this morning with coverage increasing as daytime heating commences
later this morning into the aftn. Given the wind fields aloft and
high moisture content, there is a threat for a few strong storms
with downburst winds focused on northern sections (Orlando/Cape
northward) through about Noon. After that, low level convergence
will gradually weaken as sfc winds veer out of the SW. Many areas
will see some needed rainfall with amounts generally around one
quarter inch with locally higher amounts.

The cold front will not come through until tonight so temperatures
will remain much above normal today despite clouds and some rain.
A few breaks in the clouds allowing for sfc heating will produce
mid 80s which will be close to record highs at Daytona Beach (85
1972) and Vero Beach (87 1942).

Tonight...Ongoing showers assocd with pre frontal trough will push
across our southern counties this evening but deep convection
(thunder) is not likely by this time. Showers should end by
midnight in Martin county then the NW wind shift assocd with the
cold front will push southeast across the area.

Wed-Thu...Frontal boundary remains stalled across south Florida
Wednesday. Drier air across much of central Florida north of this
front will keep rain chances out of the forecast and skies mostly to
partly sunny. The exception will be across Okeechobee County and the
southern Treasure Coast where lingering low level moisture will
continue to produce considerable cloud cover and possibly a few
showers into the afternoon. It will be slightly cooler with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s from Orlando area northward, and
still reaching around 80 degrees farther south.

Strong surface ridge building down into the central U.S. will allow
winds to become N/NW ahead of an approaching strong cold front
Thursday. This will generate weak isentropic lift as overrunning
moisture from W/SW flow just above the surface and farther aloft
leads to areas of light rainfall that will likely increase in
coverage Thursday night with cold frontal passage. Model guidance in
better agreement with overall rainfall amounts looking fairly low
from this precipitation, around a quarter of an inch or less.
Temperatures will reach the 70s in the afternoon and fall into the
low to mid 50s over much of the region overnight as cold front moves
through.

Fri-Mon...As front shifts south of the area, breezy northerly winds
will usher in colder/drier air, decreasing rain chances through
Friday and Friday night. Highs are forecast to only reach the 60s
over much of the area in the afternoon, with min temps as low as the
40s over the interior and Volusia coast overnight. Flow will quickly
veer onshore into the weekend as high pressure behind this boundary
moves toward the Mid Atlantic coast and offshore. This will moderate
temperatures back into the mid 70s by Sunday, and will also keep a
slight chance for onshore moving showers along the coast.

Another front is forecast to approach the area early next week with
enough moisture increase ahead of this boundary to mention low end
rain chances for Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm into the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees Monday afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing wind fields from the S/SW will produce low level wind
shear (LLWS) at MCO/SFB/DAB/LEE through 14Z. Aft 14Z, Gusty winds
will mix down to the sfc reducing the threat for LLWS but produce
gusts up to 30 knots. For the 12Z TAF issuance, Will likely add
TEMPO groups for MVFR conds as a band of showers and embedded
storms push in from the Gulf during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...South to southwest winds will increase 20-25 knots over
the offshore waters early this morning as low pressure deepens
over MS/AL. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible well
offshore the Volusia and Brevard coasts this morning. So a small
craft advisory is in effect beyond 20 nm with Caution headline for
15-20 knots over the nearshore waters. Seas 6-7 feet will offshore
and 3-4 ft nearshore but short wave periods will produce very
choppy conditions over all the Atlc waters.

Tonight...Winds will veer out of the west and decrease 15-20 knots
behind pre frontal trough this eve, then veer NW after midnight as
cold front pushes across the waters. The Advisory will expire at 4
pm but will probably need caution headline for the offshore
waters.

Wed-Sat...Stalled boundary across south Florida Wednesday will keep
northerly winds relatively light and seas falling to 3 feet or less
by the afternoon. However another stronger cold front will approach
the area Thursday and cross the region Thursday night with N/NW
winds increasing up to 20-25 knots behind the frontal passage,
producing poor to hazardous boating conditions through late week.
Less than favorable boating conditions will then likely continue
into the weekend as winds remain elevated and veer onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  58  75  54 /  60  10  10   0
MCO  84  61  79  58 /  60  10  10  10
MLB  85  63  78  60 /  60  20  10  10
VRB  85  64  80  62 /  60  20  10  10
LEE  82  59  76  56 /  60  10  10  10
SFB  84  59  78  56 /  60  10  10  10
ORL  83  61  78  59 /  60  10  10  10
FPR  85  66  80  63 /  50  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich



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