Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...General vfr conditions expected through the forecast
under light northerly flow. A Gulf breeze is expected to move inland
during the afternoon hours, spawning isolated to scattered tsra along
the I10 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...A combination of TD Bonnie and
an upper trough over the Caribbean and several closed lows over the
rest of the Conus have flattened the upper ridge over the Eastern
seaboard. The surface ridge present over the northern Gulf coast has
shifted over the Mississippi River Valley, bringing a light
northerly flow to the area.

As today progresses, am looking at the development of another Gulf
breeze developing and moving inland this afternoon. This sets up
pretty decent low level convergence zone over the I10 corridor, so
am expecting afternoon shra/tsra to develop, especially over the
corridor. With the northerly flow, albeit light, am not expecting
much inward penetration, though. A drier airmass has moved over the
area (surrounding 00z upper air soundings show 1.2-1.3" of precip
h20 -around to a bit below seasonal), helping to limit precip
development. Have went between the wetter NAM and drier GFS for the
pop coverage, with a low end chance pop. With the precip and its
increased cloud cover closer to the coast, along with a drier
airmass, have went above seasonal with highs today, generally in the
low 90s. Also, looking at the model soundings along the coast, may
see an isolated strong to severe tsra this afternoon.

For tonight, may see a few residual early evening shra/tsra, but am
not expecting anything significant. Have went generally in the 60s
with the overnight lows tonight, with a dry airmass and clear skies
allowing for better radiational cooling. /16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Weak upper ridging
builds into the region from the western Gulf and extreme south
central states through the period as Bonnie is expected to be near
the southeast coast and move northward away from the region. A weak
surface trof will be present over the forecast area on Tuesday but is
expected to either dissipate or shift north of the area Tuesday
night. This feature, and an expected sea breeze developing in the
afternoon, with support slight chance pops for Tuesday followed by
dry conditions Tuesday night.  An upper trof meanwhile advances
across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, with an
associated surface low bringing a trailing cold front to near the
Sabine river valley and mid Mississippi river valley by late
Wednesday night. Have continued with slight chance pops for Wednesday
afternoon mainly for sea breeze convection followed by dry conditions
for Wednesday night. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the
lower 90s for much of the area, with some inland locations reaching
the mid 90s, and upper 80s near the coast. Lows Tuesday night will be
in the mid to upper 60s, with lower 70s near the coast. Lows
Wednesday night will be near 70 inland with lower 70s near the coast.

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper trof amplifies
into a longwave trof while advancing slightly into the eastern states
through the period. The cold front west of the area is expected to
advance slowly eastward, moving into or near the western portion of
the forecast area late Friday night. The frontal boundary is expected
to shift gradually eastward and just east of the area through Sunday,
weakening further in the process. Have gone with slight chance pops
for Thursday which increase to chance over the westernmost portion on
Friday with the approach of the frontal boundary. Chance to good
chance pops follow for Saturday as the frontal boundary nears the
immediate area, with similar pops continuing for Sunday as the
boundary lingers near the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the
lower 90s inland with mid/upper 80s closer to the coast, then trend
to mainly mid to upper 80s across the area by Sunday. Lows will
generally be near 70, except for lower 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...A surface ridge has shifted/built over the Mississippi
River Valley as of the beginning of the current forecast. This has
created a light northerly flow over area coastal waters, and am
expecting this to last into mid week. With a Gulf breeze expected to
develop during the afternoon hours, a diurnal off becoming onshore
during the day, then offshore overnight cycle is expected.

The latter half of the week, a surface ridge is expected to develop
over the north/central Gulf of Mexico, creating with a daily Gulf
breeze developing, an diurnal west to southwest switch in a light to
at time moderate flow. /16


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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