Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 262043
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
343 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...A weak upper level low pressure
area over the northern gulf, centered about 150 miles south of
Pensacola Beach, will continue to drift south-southeast and
dissipate overnight. An upper level ridge will then build from the
northwest Gulf of Mexico to the lower mid-Atlantic states through
Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, weak surface high pressure will
remain over the forecast area as Hurricane Maria continues to the
move slowly northward over the western Atlantic. This pattern will
keep winds light through the period, with low level and mainly
daytime cumulus clouds remaining across the area.

The ongoing isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along
the coast will dissipate by early evening with loss of daytime
surface heating. It will then remain dry through mid wednesday
afternoon, with a few late afternoon showers expected to re-develop
across portion of southeast Mississippi due to decreasing stability.
Some patchy fog could develop late tonight in low lying and other
fog prone areas.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 66 to 69 degrees inland
areas, with low 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High
temperatures Tuesday will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal, ranging
from 90 to 94 degrees inland areas, with upper 80s along the
beaches. /22

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A broad mid
to upper ridge of high pressure mostly stretching from the western
gulf and lower plains to the mid Mississippi and Tennessee river
valleys will begin to shift west in response to a deepening upper
trof over the Great Lakes region shifting east and south Thu
through Fri night. To the east the remnants of Maria over the
western Atlantic will eventually shift east with this pattern
with a weak mid to upper trof also extending southwest from the
tropical cyclone mostly across the se states and eastern gulf.

At the surface weak high pressure over the central gulf states,
stretching north and northeast to the eastern Great Lakes and mid
Atlantic region, will gradually weaken in response to the upper
trof digging over the Great Lakes, and Maria moving northward off
the Mid Atlantic coast before turning to the ne. With this
pattern expect drier/stable conditions to continue across the
forecast area Wed night through early Sat morning with a good shot
of reinforcing cooler/drier air moving down to the northern gulf
coast and offshore by early Fri morning. With increased subsidence
in the boundary layer through the short term period rain chances
will be very low to nil with more sun than clouds expected each
day.

Cooler temperatures are also noted in the short term period
basically Thu night through Fri night. Lows Wed night will
continue to be above average ranging from the upper 60s inland and
the lower to middle 70s near the coast followed by highs Thu,
still above average, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows
Thu night will range from the mid to upper 60s for most inland
areas and the lower 70s near the immediate coast. Highs Fri will
range from the mid to upper 80s to the west and the upper 80s to
near 90 to the east. Lows Fri night will range from the lower to
middle 60s inland and the upper 60s to near 70 near the coast.
32/ee

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Reinforcing high pressure
will move south and east over the eastern conus and north central
gulf states Sat through Tue. To the south a broad area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean will begin to emerge over the
southern and southwest gulf, followed by a deeper area of low
pressure moving into the same locations later in the week. With
this pattern better mid to upper moisture from the east is noted
in the model guidance combined with widespread layer lift
generally over much of the northern and central gulf, including
most of the lower half of the forecast area. A moderate to strong
pressure/temp gradient also sets up along the northern gulf coast
in the long term period, leading to breezy conditions mainly from
the east with widespread light to moderate rain, with a few
embedded thunderstorms also possible. Temperatures will continue
to be more near seasonal averages, with lows ranging from the
lower to middle 60s at night and highs in the lower to middle 80s
each day. 32/ee

&&

.MARINE...Weak high pressure will continue over the marine area
through midweek, then become reinforced late Thursday through early
next week in the wake of a cold front that moves across the northern
gulf late in the week. A moderate to strong offshore flow is
expected in the wake of the front late Friday through Saturday,
becoming mostly east by early next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  91  70  90 /  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
Destin      75  89  75  89 /   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   66  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  67  91  67  90 /  10  10   0  10
Camden      66  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   67  94  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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