Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 262131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Surface high pressure builds
eastward into the western Atlantic tonight, maintaining south-
southeast surface flow and transporting Gulf moisture back into the
area through the near term. Meanwhile, a weak upper-level shortwave
passing through the area will tap into the returning moisture and
diurnally-forced instability, increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area Monday afternoon and evening. At this time,
looking like rain chances are best across northwest portions of the
local area, with likely POPs generally west of I-65 and chance POPs
elsewhere. Latest convective-allowing models are in a bit of
disagreement regarding the timing (and subsequently the potency) of
this event. With modest instability (driven largely by diabatic
heating and warm-air advection) and decent deep-layer shear
overspreading the area, the potential exists for a few strong to low-
end severe thunderstorms along and west of a line extending from
Mobile to Bay Minette to Camden. These storms could be capable of
producing up to nickel-sized hail and gusty winds up to 60 mph.
However, the severe potential will depend largely on the timing and
location of the shortwave, as several models still pass it through
too slowly or too far north and thus, fail to take advantage of the
best daytime instability.

Will see slightly warmer lows tonight as southeast flow begins to
return moisture to the area. Expect temps to dip into the mid 40`s
across the interior to mid 50`s along the coast. Afternoon highs
Monday will reach the mid to upper 70`s across the area. /49

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Shower
and thunderstorm activity should rapidly wane Monday night as the
warm front moves north out of the area and CAPE drops rapidly off.
Moist southwesterly flow aloft though should provide at least a
patchy blanket of cloud cover over us keeping overnight lows from
falling out of the 60s. The warm moist weather pattern then
continues through Tuesday night as a southerly surface flow
persists under a moist southwesterly flow aloft. Upstream an upper
level major shortwave trough deepens and shifts eastward driving
a cold front that is expected to be positioned from around
Michigan extending southwestward to Eastern Texas by Tuesday
evening. This upper level wave will bring a cold front through
the region Wednesday night. Main upper level dynamics are still
projected to remain north of us but shear profiles and instability
still sufficient to warrant concern of strong to potentially
severe tstms over our northern counties...generally along and
north of a line extending from Hattiesburg to Greenville. The main
impacts currently are the potential of damaging straight line
winds developing along an extensive squall line extending
southward into our northern counties from Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening. This system will continue to evolve
over the next few days and changes to the forecast regarding
strength, potential impacts, timing and impacted locations are
quite likely.

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A period of cooler and
drier conditions will follow in the wake of the cold front
Wednesday night and extend into the weekend. High temperatures
will climb into the 60s each afternoon and even lower 70s on
Sunday as a warm...moist return flow develops. Overnight lows
Thursday night and Friday night generally in the 30s and 40s but
closer to 50 along the coast...a little warmer Saturday night mid
40s to mid 50s. A chance of rain returns on Sunday. /08


.MARINE...High pressure moves quickly east into the western Atlantic
tonight resulting in a persistent return flow through midweek.
Chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase Monday.
A brief break follows on Tuesday before slight chances return
Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong offshore flow
develops in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night, which then
persists into Thursday. /49


Mobile      55  76  63  78 /  10  40  10  10
Pensacola   56  75  64  77 /   0  40  10   0
Destin      57  72  65  77 /   0  30  10   0
Evergreen   46  77  61  83 /   0  40  10  10
Waynesboro  45  73  60  82 /  10  60  20  20
Camden      46  72  61  82 /   0  60  20  20
Crestview   47  76  61  81 /   0  40  10  10




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