Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
984
FXUS64 KMOB 090047 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS OF 6 PM CST. FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY OVER INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THESE
LOCATIONS AT 6 PM. STRONGER WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL PERIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 6 AM
TUESDAY. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT AGL
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...
EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS
AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HEIGHT
FALLS PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SINKING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S
BELOW THE MEAN.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS SETUP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LAND SEA INTERFACE TONIGHT...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAINING THE WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST...WHILE RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW 1300 METERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH A CONTINUED...WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. /13

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA STATES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...SEAS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 12 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE
BY WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.