Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 060101 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
701 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT NO SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING FROM A MVFR
CEILING TO A VFR CEILING NEAR 6-7 KFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL LIFT TO A VFR CEILING
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 17-21 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO NEAR 13 KNOTS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SLEET FROM WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTY WITH ONE
REPORT IN FAR NW CLARKE COUNTY. WE ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT
ICING ON A RADIO TOWER IN BUTLER (CHOCTAW COUNTY). THE FREEZING LINE
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BUTLER AND NOW DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY. LIGHT ICING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THIS FINAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVES EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SLEET FURTHER EAST ACROSS CLARKE...WILCOX...AND MONROE COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE MIDSOUTH/TN VALLEY MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A RESULT...FORECAST LOWS
ARE NOW A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH LOW 20S IN
CHOCTAW/WAYNE COUNTIES. UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
EAST. CONSIDERING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZE TONIGHT JUST A DAY OR SO REMOVED FROM A PERIOD OF
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PART OF THE NW FL PANHANDLE.

THE FORECAST LOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING IN MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 27
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BE ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD LOW OF 26 SET IN
1960.

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10PM AS FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT JUST RECENTLY GUSTED TO 34
KT.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. 34/JFB

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
FORMED AS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS. IT WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY STEEP AND THUS THE WIND SHOULD STILL STAY
SUBSTANTIAL BUT THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE
TO SHUTTING DOWN BY THEN DUE TO A SOMEWHAT STEEP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALIGNED SO THE ISOTHERMS ARE ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WIND....NOT AT
EVERY SINGLE POINT...BUT OVERALL. BY SATURDAY MORNING THAT HIGH WILL
HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA THEN DRIFTING AROUND THE
MID-SOUTH UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE A
COLD DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER THROUGH MOVES EAST...LEAVING PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND ...AND FROM LOW TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND NORTH MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE A MEDIUM
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL FORM OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU OF TEXAS BY NOON TUESDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
WITH CLOUD BASES AND CEILINGS LOWERING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTER
THAT...WE SEE INDICATIONS THAT INTRUSIONS OF POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WOULD BE TRENDING TO A MORE LIMITED MANNER
THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. AS WE ARE WITHIN
A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO WEEKS OF SPRING...WE WOULD EXPECT COLD AIR
OUBREAKS TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE...BUT IT ALSO GIVES ZONAL
POTENTIAL ENERGY A CHANCE TO BUILD AGAIN AND LET THE PATTERN GET A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WITH THE SHORTER WAVELENGTH ELEMENTS LATER ON. AT
THIS POINT IT WOULD BE TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFICS BUT IT MAY BE GETTING QUIET FOR A LITTLE WHILE IN THE FAR
END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE MAJOR KINETIC ENERGY STREAM SHRINKS
NORTHWARD AND A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 77/BD

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WHILE CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR RECENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. 34/JFB

MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE AREA LIKELY THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      27  53  31  62  41 /  10  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   34  55  37  63  44 /  10  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      37  54  41  60  48 /  10  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   27  53  31  63  40 /  10  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  23  50  27  62  37 /  05  00  05  05  10
CAMDEN      25  52  30  61  39 /  10  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   34  54  33  66  41 /  10  00  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     ALZ052>064.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>064.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ051.

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     FLZ001>003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     MSZ075-076-078-079.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MSZ067.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$



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