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000
FXUS64 KMOB 231133
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent through the
forecast period. Winds will become southeasterly to southerly
between 5-10 knots with occasional higher gusts possible late
this morning and this afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A deep layer dry airmass remains entrenched across our forecast area
early this morning underneath northwesterly flow aloft. A large
surface ridge of high pressure extends across the Eastern Seaboard
and into the north central Gulf Coast region. Clear skies, light
winds, and the dry surface airmass has allowed for decent
radiational cooling overnight with temperatures ranging from around
40 degrees to the mid 40s across most locations along and north of
the I-10 corridor as of 4 AM CDT, while locations along the coast
were averaging in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The dry northwesterly to zonal flow pattern aloft will generally
remain prevalent across our forecast area today and tonight while
the surface ridge axis remains oriented along the north central Gulf
Coast. A southerly low level flow pattern will take shape across our
forecast area late this morning into this afternoon, allowing for a
gradual increase in low level moisture across the region. Skies will
remain mostly sunny through the day, with perhaps some cumulus
developing in the southerly flow regime this afternoon. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected again tonight. There could be
some very patchy light fog development in a few spots early this
morning and again late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but
confidence in occurrence and the anticipated very patchy/limited
nature of fog development precluded any mention in the forecast. A
weak upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and
southeast states on Wednesday. An associated weak frontal boundary
may push into central portions of MS/AL and perhaps into the
vicinity of far northern portions of our forecast area by Wednesday
afternoon. A slight increase in boundary layer moisture and weak
convergence along this boundary could result in the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon, but
the bulk of the latest guidance indicates that any isolated
convection that develops should remain to the north of our region.
We kept POPs just below mentionable levels around 10% over far
northern parts of our CWA by Wednesday afternoon for now.

Highs today are forecast to range in the mid to upper 70s inland and
in the lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight
should average between 50-55 over most locations along and north of
I-10 and in the mid 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast.
Temperatures on Wednesday should warm into the upper 70s to lower
80s across most of the region. The rip current risk looks to remain
LOW through the middle to latter part of the week, before increasing
by the end of the week and especially into this weekend. /21

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The area remains mostly dry through the remainder of the week and
weekend before rain chances rebound early next week.

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through early Friday morning as
the region remains on the periphery of an approaching ridge to our
west. As the ridge slides overhead, flow aloft turns westerly to
southwesterly in the afternoon on Friday. Down at the surface, a
surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the
eastern Gulf and the local area through the weekend. A front will
dip into parts of the Mid South and Southeast on Thursday, but it is
still expected to hang up to our north thanks to the surface high
nosing into the local area. Can`t rule out a few showers Thursday
afternoon as the front nudges toward the Highway 84 corridor, but
confidence is too low to include POPs in the forecast at this time.
Onshore flow becomes more established as we roll into the weekend,
pumping in plenty of moisture to the area. Similar to Thursday, a
few showers are possible, but not likely in the afternoon hours this
weekend as a few shortwaves pivot across the ridge aloft with ample
moisture streaming into the region. Rain chances begin to increase
late Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with a
HIGH RISK expected by Saturday as onshore flow continues to increase
at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate a high likelihood of
the risk remaining HIGH through at least Sunday at all local
beaches. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

No marine impacts anticipated through the week. Onshore flow is
forecast to strengthen with a gradual build in seas late Friday and
into the weekend. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  55  82  60  83  61  81  66 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   75  60  78  62  81  63  79  67 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0
Destin      73  62  76  65  79  66  78  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   77  51  82  57  84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  77  51  82  58  85  58  85  62 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0
Camden      76  51  79  56  82  58  83  61 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0
Crestview   77  50  83  56  85  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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