Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050233 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
933 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING THAT THE EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND PFM PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
EARLIER END TO THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 2 AM. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE GULF WATERS AFTER 2 AM. EVERGREEN
ALABAMA 02Z METAR REPORTING A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG
DOWN TO 1.5 MILES. RAP MODEL IS SHOWING FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENT TO SPLIT THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO 2 SIX HOUR GROUPS...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN
THE MORNING (0-20%) AND HIGHER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON (20-40%)
...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
05.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS NEAR AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AL MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AL
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG A DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WHICH IS EXPECTED MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOWER
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MAYBE FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE ERODING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ALOFT A BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW CENTER PINCHES OFF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY EARLY SAT MORNING THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT WEST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN
BETTER CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT THEN DEVELOPING INLAND OVER MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
CAMDEN AL TO WIGGINS MS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER
INSTABILITY FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH THE HIGHEST CAPES...POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG...OCCURRING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA STRETCHING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE AL AND NWFL COAST. GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR MOBILE STRETCHING EAST
TOWARDS MILTON AND CRESTVIEW IN FL AND AREAS TO THE NORTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OF
LOCAL MEDIA BROADCASTS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR
AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH BETTER CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS ON SAT AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPTS...LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CLIMB TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY]...A NORTHERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX AND AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWFA SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE MAINLY OVER THE MARINE AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST.
GIVEN THAT DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CWFA
SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LOWER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOCUSED MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WE
STILL EXPECT READINGS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND THE MID
70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOLUTIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
AL/NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE
SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS APPROACHING FEATURE WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY...AND WILL KEEP COVERAGE AROUND 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND. /21

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE OPENING
INTO A TROUGH BUT STILL LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT REMAINS IN THE WEAK FLOW BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TROUGH MAY BECOME
PART OF A LARGER SCALE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH THE
TN/MS VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BY
NEXT FRIDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST FORECAST REALLY
SHOWS LITTLE DAILY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. /21

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BETTER ONSHORE
FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  92  72  90  70 /  20  40  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  91  74  87  73 /  20  30  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  90  76  86  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
EVERGREEN   71  95  70  90  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  95  71  92  69 /  20  20  20  30  20
CAMDEN      71  91  70  90  70 /  20  30  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  93  71  90  69 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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