Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 051718 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1218 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST NEXT 24 HRS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FORECAST
BY AND AFTER 06.00Z. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE
APPALACHIANS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN INTO TEXAS AND MAINTAINS A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SOME MINOR TWEAKS IN LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS WAS REQUIRED AS DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR
SUFFICIENT MIXING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...FORECAST IN THE MID
70S...REMAINING ON TRACK. /10

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOWER MOBILE
BAY AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FORECASTERS NOTE SOME LOWERING IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY...BUT ANTICIPATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO PICK BACK UP INTO THE NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR ADVECTION OFF THE MAINLAND RESULTS IN AN INCREASED
THERMAL GRADIENT. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO WEST FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PUSH OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKING IT SOUTH TO THE COASTLINE BY AROUND
SUNRISE. BREEZY NWLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION...THIS COUPLED WITH THE DRIER AIR WOULD LEND ITSELF TO
HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT WARMING WILL BE CAPPED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY. ALL
AND ALL STILL A PLEASANT DAY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S AND END UP ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S MAX
TEMPERATURES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE SOMEWHAT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR
MAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST
INTERIOR SITES AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. /08

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
DIG SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST. A THIRD UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PUSHES EAST, MOVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
HELPS TO MOVE A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEAST, TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
RESTORES SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BUT A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE.

FOR THE FORECAST, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST, TEMPS MODERATE
UPWARD WITH THE INCREASE IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE RIDGE.
DAYTIME HIGHS RISE TO AROUND SEASONAL, BUT WITH WEAK WINDS
OVERNIGHT, COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY.
LOWS INT THE LOW TO0 MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT MODERATE UPWARD TO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

/16

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS
TO BECOME DISORGANIZED...EJECTING PIECES OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES THE SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD FROM
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE FA AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS, AND BRING BACK PRECIP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, ALBEIT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FA. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ABOVE SEASONAL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF PASSING ENERGY BRINGS
BACK TSRA TO THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL.

/16

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND SOUTH MOBILE BAY UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING AND IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AT
LEAST A MODERATE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER ALL BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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