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000
FXUS63 KMQT 141421
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1021 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE LOOKING RAIN AND SNOW IS CONTINUING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS W
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 1KFT. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY. WX TYPE LOOKS OK FOR NOW...WITH KBFW
REPORTING RAIN AND OTHER SITES GOING DIRECTLY TO SNOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A 994MB LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AND IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST. A DRY NIGHT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. OVER THE FAR EAST...THE MOISTENING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS OVER LUCE AND SOUTHEASTERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. KISQ HAS BEEN REPORTING 4SM AND BR AND UNSURE IF
THAT IS FOG OR DRIZZLE AND UNFORTUNATELY THE PRESENT WX SENSOR HAS
BEEN OUT OVER THE LAST DAY AT KERY. SINCE THE GOING HAD DZ/FZDZ
MENTIONED...WILL KEEP THAT IDEA GOING THROUGH 13Z WHEN THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST. AT 4AM...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS
STARTED TO MOVE OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SEEN ON RADAR IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND THEN
STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES BACK WEST ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. 4AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
MONTH)...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. OVER THE WEST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S.

AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE ARE TWO ITEMS THAT
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE OCCLUDED
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DON/T THINK ITS INFLUENCE WILL
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ONLY
SCATTERED MVFR/VFR CLOUDS SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW...BUT
THE MAIN FORCING WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND THROUGH
WISCONSIN. IF THERE WAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...IT MAY HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS THIS MORNING ON THE OCCLUDED
FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. SINCE THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE
WEST...CONTINUED TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES (SLIGHT/CHANCE) OF
PRECIP ALTHOUGH DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS.

THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL COME TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES WEST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THERE
HAS BEEN A PRETTY PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT IN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...TURNING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND LEAD
TO UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH WIND AREAS OF THE WEST/CENTRAL
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THOSE UPSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM THE
COLD FRONT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...AND
INCREASED/DEEPER MOISTURE. SINCE MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AREAS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE FROZEN OVER AND 850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (IF THE LAKE WAS
OPEN)...DON/T THINK THAT WILL HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ONLY AREA THAT IS CLOSE TO THE OPEN WATER
OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE IS IRONWOOD AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE
MODEL ICE COVER...ALL ARE INDICATING LAKE SUPERIOR BEING FROZEN OVER
EXCEPT NEAR DULUTH...SO DON/T THINK THAT IS BIASING AMOUNTS AND WILL
FOLLOW THEIR GENERAL IDEA. EVEN WITHOUT THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...MODELS STILL SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST IN THE 0.1-0.25 INCH RANGE. OVER THE
EAST...THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED (DUE TO LACK OF
UPSLOPE FORCING) AND GENERALLY OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LACK OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO A CONCERN...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD LAYER BEING WARMER THAN
-10C...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS. BUT HAVE A FEELING A LOT OF IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH/HEIGHT OF THE PRECIPITATION...SINCE ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN. ONCE THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MID AFTERNON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SNOW RATIOS ARE FAIRLY LOW
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...STARTING AROUND 6-7 TO 1 AND THEN RISING
INTO THE LOWER TEENS ONCE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE WEST. WITH THE LOW RATIOS
AND WARM TEMPERATURE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THINK THAT WILL
CUT BACK SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
AROUND AND HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 2.5-3 INCHES IF THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OCCURS
EARLIER AND THE HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR.

WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT (DAYBREAK SATURDAY TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY
COLD WX ON SAT NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER NW
FLOW ALF BTWN FAMILIAR WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED
SINCE NOV. ALTHOUGH THE TROF OVER ERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOCUS FOR THE LONGER TERM WL BE ON POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE
TENACIOUS WRN RDG DEEPENS AN UPR TROF IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH
MIGHT ALLOW A DEEPER LO PRES TO MOVE NE INTO THE GRT LKS.

SAT...STEADY N WIND IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO ARND -20C BY 00Z
SUN. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...LK CLDS/SN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN THE MRNG SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN
WITH THE INCRSG MAR SUN ANGLE TENDING TO DISRUPT THE TYPICAL LES
PROCESS IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE. WHILE
SC WL FORM OVER THE INTERIOR...THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW/SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN THE INVRN NEAR 3K FT AGL SHOULD PREVENT ANY
INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS IN THIS AREA.

SAT NGT...TRAILING ARCTIC HI PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO JUST NW OF
LK SUP BY 12Z SUN. WITH LLVL NNE WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -20C IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT SOME LK CLDS/LGT SN SHOWERS
WL IMPACT AREAS NEAR LK SUP FAVORED BY THIS FLOW. BUT LO INVRN BASE
NEAR 3K FT UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AS WELL AS DRY... ACYC NATURE
OF LLVL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WL LIMIT SN SHOWER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. WITH MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS OVER THE E AND NEAR THE WI
BORDER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL SHARPLY WITH FCST PWAT JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH A MEAGER 20 PCT OF NORMAL. WL GO TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS.

SUN...WITH ARCTIC HI PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT A MOSUNNY BUT COLD DAY OVER THE CWA UNDER
H85 TEMPS ARND -15C.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND ANOTHER
SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG ON SUN MOVES INTO MN ON MN...LARGER
SCALE SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS
/H8-65/ WL RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SHOW
SOME LGT SN IMPACTING ONLY THE W AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
DRY LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES HOLDING FIRM JUST SE OF
JAMES BAY UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF LIMITS THE EWD SPREAD OF THE
PCPN. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COLD SUN NGT
OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH MORE CLDS/STEADY S WIND LIMITING THE DIURNAL
FALL OVER THE W. TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE WELL BLO NORMAL WITH MORE
CLDS AND H85 TEMPS ARND -12C.

EXTENDED...THE 00Z EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA AS POTENT SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG DIGS
SHARPLY INTO THE PLAINS ON TUE. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR N RESULTANT
SFC LO WL TRACK IS STILL IN DOUBT. OVERALL...THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF
SHOW A FARTHER N TRACK WITH A BIT MORE PHASING BTWN THE POLAR AND
ARCTIC BRANCES. THE FASTER ECWMF SHOWS PCPN IN ADVANCE OF THIS LO
SPREADING INTO UPR MI AS EARLY AS TUE...BUT NCEP INDICATES THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLOWER LIFTING THIS SFC LO TO THE NE THAN IS
THE OPERATIONAL 00Z RUN. THAT FCST WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
SLOWER 00Z GFS...WHICH SHOWS A NEARLY SIMILAR TRACK THRU CENTRAL
LOWER MI ON WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH EARLIER RUNS AND SHOWS A SOMEWHAT MORE POSITIVELY TILTED UPR
TROF/LESS PHASING OF THE BRANCHES...WITH A FARTHER S TRACK THRU THE
OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WOULD TAKE THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN S OF UPR MI.
CONSIDERING THESE DISCREPANCIES...WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FCST WITH CHC POPS FOR SN ON TUE AND WED AND THEN A CHC OF SN
SHOWERS ON THU. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND DEPART THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AS THAT OCCURS...AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THREE SITES UNTIL THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARDS MID
DAY AT KIWD/KCMX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS
EXPECTED INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH MVFR AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY AT KCMX) THAT VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO IFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT A LITTLE LATER ARRIVAL AT KSAW AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INITIALLY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BE HIGHER END MVFR. BUT WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE NNW TOWARDS LATE EVENING...EXPECT THE
VISIBILITIES TO FALL AS TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT INCREASES. ALL THREE
SITES SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A 29.4 INCH LOW NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE INITIAL
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING. THEN AS THE SECONDARY AND STRONGER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. AN
APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE
10-25KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF