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000
FXUS63 KMQT 121810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE KEWEENAW TODAY AND SPREADS OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE
LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO MID-MORNING AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE HOVERING AROUND THE -25F ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS DISRUPTED COOLING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE EXITED AND
ARE ALLOWING FOR A RENEWED DROP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
BACKING OF THE WINDS BEHIND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WI
COMBINED WITH A LAND BREEZE ALONG THE SHORELINE HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF
THE LES TO MOVE OFFSHORE FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
KEWEENAW. MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE SW SIDE
OF THE DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. WITH THE STOUT MORNING LAND
BREEZE...KEPT THE SNOW OFF SHORE A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SLIGHT WARMING TODAY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK DOWN THE LAND BREEZE AND PUSH ALL THE LES
BACK ON SHORE FOR THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THE
KEWEENAW...EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR BY MID-MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY DOMINATE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW...EXTENDED THE LES ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS TO 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTATION IF FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW/HOUGHTON COUNTY BORDER AND
SW OF THE PORTAGE CANAL.

FORECAST SOUNDING ACROSS THE EAST BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
BETTER SNOW GROWTH WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THAN AS OF LATE ALLOWING
THE DGZ TO RISE INTO THE LAYER OF MAX LIFT. LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS APPROACHING 10KFT OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS
AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING TROUGH WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN LES ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR ALGER/LUCE/N SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
BANDS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH WITH GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS TO
PREVENT ANY LOCATION FROM REMAINING UNDER ONE BAND LONG ENOUGH TO
SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT OCCUR JUST EAST OF MUNISING WHERE SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A BAND STALLING THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...SOME MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
TROUGH AND THE PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 140KT UPPER JET
NEAR THE WI BORDER OVERNIGHT WILL INDUCE A WEAK FGEN CIRCULATION AND
BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. EXPECTING ONLY A HALF INCH AT MOST WITH THIS
SNOWFALL...BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HIDE ICE PATCHES STILL ON THE
SIDE ROADS FROM THE ICING EVENT ABOUT A WEEK AGO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL SEND A SFC TROF S
THRU THE UPPER LAKES...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER NW OR N BY FRI MORNING.
AS A RESULT...ONGOING WRLY FLOW LES LATE THU AFTN WILL SPREAD
S...AFFECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF NRN UPPER MI BY FRI MORNING.
DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG TROF DUE TO WEAKENING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MDT SNOW OVER
ALGER COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND THEN MAYBE INTO MQT COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. DGZ WILL BE LOCATED FAVORABLY WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER
AND ASSOC UPWARD MOTION ZONE...LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS. SO...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FRI WHERE LES IS MOST PERISTENT (NCNTRL UPPER MI). OUT
W DURING THE DAY...WINDS MAY END UP VEERING ENOUGH TO PUSH MOST OF
THE LES OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW.

WINDS CONTINUE VEERING TO THE E THEN SE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER PASSES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LES AFFECTING
MAINLY NCNTRL UPPER MI FRI AFTN/EVENING WILL THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT...CROSSING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR A TIME LATER FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. DGZ WILL STILL BE WELL CENTERED IN THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS VEERING
FROM N-NE TO MORE ERLY DIRECTION OVER NRN LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING A FEW INCHES OF LES INTO MENOMINEE
COUNTY AS WELL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY SAT
AFTN/EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A QUICK PERIOD OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI AS WINDS VEER FROM EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON TO SOUTH IN THE EVENING...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL ADVY
EVENT. LAKE ENHANCED BAND THAT DOES FORM OFF LAKE MI WILL LIKELY BE
VERY TRANSIENT DUE TO THE QUICKLY VEERING WINDS. A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION
BOUT OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST UPPER MI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND SHIFTS FROM
SW TO WNW. AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N OR NE WITH SFC HIGH PRES
PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...LIGHTER LES WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO AFFECT
MORE OF NRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN/EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF SEVERAL
WNW FLOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA MON/TUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL CONTINUE
TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH FCST FOR MON/TUE...HEDGING
CLOSER TO BLEND OF MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/GEM-NH. DEPENDING ON
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WAVES...THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD -SN. LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI
IN SRLY FLOW ON MON AFTERNOON/EVENING SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR SE AND
ERN COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE IN DVLPG W-WNW FLOW.

HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO WED AS BOTH 00Z ECMWF/GEM-NH
SUGGEST A SLIGHT MID WEEK WARMUP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS DUMPS MORE
ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. AT 00Z THU...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY AROUND -10C WITH THE ECWMF TO -20C WITH THE GFS. WITH COLDER
AIR OUT STILL OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN A WNW FLOW WOULD STILL
EXPECT SCT LES SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER NW AND NE UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

CMX...WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS VEER NRLY TONIGHT...THE LES IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

IWD...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND N TONIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING MAINLY IFR VSBY AND MVFR
CIGS.

KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH BRINGS SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AFTER WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

WSW TO WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWING VEERING TO THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST HALF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS LIMIT THE INTENSITY.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH TO NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECT
10 TO 20 KT WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SE BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY TO 25
TO 30 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ240>245-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER