Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 211003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
403 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Rain, high elevation snow, 20 degrees below normal temperatures
Friday into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today across the region. The biggest threats with these
storms will be lightning, heavy rain and small hail.

The bigger story continues to be the weather system that will
bring various fall-like impacts to central Idaho and western
Montana. As the upper level system approaches later tonight,
showers will begin to develop and then increase in coverage with
time on Friday. Also possible gusty northeast winds will be
possible at times across area lakes and through canyons along the
Continental Divide. These winds are expected to increase in
strength especially by Saturday morning and there could be a 1 to
2 foot chop on Flathead Lake with possible wind gusts over 20 mph.
As the upper level low tracks across central Idaho Friday night,
it will tap into some juicy atmospheric moisture over central and
eastern Montana. Rainfall rates could be moderate to heavy at
times possibly triggering rock slides in a few areas. Snow levels
will be coming down along the Continental Divide with heavy
precipitation by Saturday morning. Logan Pass at 6,646 ft. could
see a mixture of rain and snow for a period Friday night through
Saturday morning. It will be rather raw in the back country with
steady precipitation and colder than normal temperatures.

One change this forecast update was to increase the chance for
precipitation across Clearwater and Idaho Counties in Idaho
Saturday as rainfall wraps around the low.

The intense precipitation diminishes by Saturday night, but there
will still be a chance for showers. There will be a chance for
showers on Sunday while temperatures will moderate slowly.

Next week...The tail end of moisture from the weekends major
precipitation event will impact the Northern Rockies Monday.
Expect a bounce back to near normal temperatures Tuesday through the
rest of the week. Normal high temps are in the lower 80s. Expect a
general westerly and mainly dry flow through the middle to end of
the week with a potential for a few weak systems to bring
scattered precipitation.  Confidence for any kind of coverage or
amount of precipitation is highly uncertain.


.AVIATION...Scattered morning showers and even a few thunderstorms
are occurring over the northern Rockies this morning. It is
possible one of these showers could impact KGPI, KMSO or KBTM
through 21/1600z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
redevelop in the afternoon possibly impacting any terminal through




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