Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 250951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
351 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...This morning will start of cool, as clouds have
continued to decrease overnight, leading to good radiational cooling.
Patchy fog is possible for area valleys, especially those areas
which saw abundant precipitation the past several days. That being
said, any fog that does form should be quick to dissipate shortly
after sunrise.

Fairly quiet weather is expected today and Thursday as we sit
under weak flow aloft between weather systems. Afternoon and
evening showers are possible both days, but most places will
stay dry with plenty of breaks in the clouds. High temperatures
will be about 5 or so degrees below seasonal normals, which
roughly translates to low 60s to low 70s for many of the valleys
in our area.

Friday and Saturday will be another few days of scattered
afternoon and evening showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
under the baggy trough over much of the west.

Models are coming into agreement bringing a more organized wet and
colder weather disturbance into the region late Sunday through
Tuesday morning. Expect widespread precipitation to occur with
some lowering of snow levels. The timing is still a bit uncertain
but right now the best potential for widespread precipitation is

Models are in pretty good agreement showing a pretty good ridge of
high pressure over the region by the middle of next week bringing
a return to above normal temperatures, possibly flirting with the
80 degree mark by Wednesday or Thursday.


.AVIATION...Clouds have cleared this morning over much of the
area, allowing for good radiational cooling. With relatively high
low level moisture present, patchy fog is likely for area valleys.
One mitigating factor is the depth of the moist layer, which is
more favorable for mid to low status formation and dew rather than
extensive fog. KGPI is already seeing a stratus deck form, as
observed via both ASOS and satellite imagery. Any fog that does
form will be quick to dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.
Light winds, up to 10 to 12 knots are expected for KMSO and KBTM
this afternoon and evening, quickly decreasing after sunset. Only
scattered showers are expected during the day, mainly along the
Montana/Idaho border.



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