Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 241038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Rain has mostly moved east of the Divide this
morning, however a few lingering showers in high terrain should be
anticipated through the day today. Snow levels have begun to
lower, albeit rather slowly, while temperatures remained quite
mild overnight. As a result, yesterday`s rainfall has combined
with melting snow to produce a quick rise in area streams and
creeks. While no flooding is occurring or expected, clogged
culverts, standing water in fields/lowland areas, as well as
bankfull streams seem to be the most common observation across the
area. Since rain has ended and temperatures will continuing
trending cooler with lowering snow levels, this threat should not
last very long.

Conditions do dry out Saturday, however our next cold front is
expected Sunday night into Monday across north central Idaho and
western Montana. Rain will be the starting precipitation type, but
will transition to snow Monday afternoon/evening as snow levels
lower to around 3000 feet.

Forecast models are in much better agreement with a strong trough
of low pressure sliding south into the Northern Rockies from the
Pacific NW Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system appears to
have more cold air associated with it than previous weather
disturbances. So, expect snow to return to all mountain passes,
and perhaps down to some valley floors across the region. This
flow pattern would also be conducive for snowbands to develop by
Wednesday morning.

High pressure will then build overhead by the end of the week,
which would be a favorable pattern for widespread fog. Long range
forecast models are indicating that the Northern Rockies could be
entering a period of at-or-below normal temperatures, with an
active pattern setting up for the start of December.


.AVIATION...Breezy winds have kept fog from settling in across the
Northern Rockies this morning, however patchy fog in and around
KMSO and KSMN cannot be ruled out between 24/1200Z and 24/1600Z. A
mostly dry day will occur today, though mountain obscurations may
persist due to lingering terrain showers. Further clearing
tonight after 25/0400Z will allow for a much better fog
opportunity to develop through 25/1600Z at all area terminals.



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