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000
FXUS65 KMSO 192035
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 PM MDT Sun May 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...Rain-showers have begun to develop across western
Montana this afternoon and is expected to increase in coverage
early this evening. There is also a slight chance for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop in northwestern Montana, mainly in Lake
and Flathead Counties. There is some good news for the near term
forecast with the return to warmer and drier conditions. High
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will once again be back in the
mid 70`s with mostly sunny skies.

Most significant change to the forecast for Wednesday and beyond
was an increase in temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday morning
with a continued model trend to slow the system down and warm it
up. While snow at mountain passes is possible, recent trends
suggest most of the precipitation will fall overnight as rain.
Northwestern Montana from Troy through Glacier National Park will
receive the most rain with around half an inch expected for most
locations. Main impacts include swollen streams and potential for
mountain snow to affect travel over passes Thursday morning,
especially Marias pass. Impacts in central Idaho and southwestern
Montana will be mediocre in terms of precipitation and snow.

Beyond Wednesday, forecast model agreement is increasing to keep
the low pressure system lingering over the northwest. Expect
slightly cooler than average temperatures during the day and
periods of rain lasting several hours at a time. Those planning
outdoor activities for Memorial Day weekend should be prepared for
wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain-showers will once again develop across western
Montana and central Idaho this afternoon that could temporarily
reduce visibility and lower ceilings. Clouds will also obscure
mountain tops around all aviation sites. A few isolated
thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon, mainly for
northwestern Montana.  Gusty northwest winds will also impact
aviation terminals till after 20/0400Z. KGPI will see gusty winds
out of the southeast, till after 20/0400Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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