Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 281752
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and warm Memorial Day weekend is forecast for
the Bay Area. The trend will continue at least through the middle
of next week with no significant cooling expected until late in
the week at the earliest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:52 AM PDT Saturday...Visible satellite
imagery shows only a few low clouds over the northern Monterey
Bay and along the Monterey coastline. There are high clouds over
much of northern California. Morning temperatures are running
warmer than yesterday at this time by several degrees as readings
are ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the district.
Highs today will be warmer than those on Friday with mid to upper
60s at the immediate coast, and 70s, 80s and even 90s well inland.

The 12Z NAM is still indicating a southerly stratus surge on
Sunday, and stratus can already be seen creeping up the coast on
visible satellite. and eddy has formed just west of Cambria due to
differing air flows in that area. The NAM brings low clouds up the
coast to San Francisco by 09Z and along the entire coast by Sunday
morning. This will put a limit on coastal warming for tomorrow,
and an onshore flow will also bring some cooler temps locally
inland. This slight cooling trend is expected to be short lived as
high pressure aloft rebuilds over California. Warmer temperatures
are forecast for Memorial Day and Tuesday, with the upper ridge
slowly edging east over the great basin through the rest of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:52 AM PDT Saturday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported across the forecast area this morning. However, the
current visible satellite image is showing a southerly surge
pushing up the Big Sur coast. The southerly surge will make it
into Monterey bay this afternoon and will impact Salinas and
Monterey by early evening. The big question is how much stratus
will make it into San Francisco bay and when. At this point have
stratus in San Francisco bay for a brief period early Sunday
morning.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
late tonight with MVFR conditions possible between 1000Z and
1400Z Sunday morning. The sea breaze is expected to reach 18 kt
this afternoon.

Confidence is high.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this afternoon with MVFR returning around 0500z. The sea
breeze is expected to reach 10 to 12 kt this afternoon.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:43 AM PDT Saturday...A broad thermal trough
will maintain gusty northwest winds over the waters through the
weekend...winds will be strongest across the outer coastal waters.
Additionally...steep fresh swell and choppy conditions will be
generated by these winds. The gusty winds and fresh seas gradually
subside early next week. Meanwhile...a building southerly swell
is anticipated to arrive early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry


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