Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291110
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG
WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW
CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE
LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS
CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR
TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL
READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE
LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND
SOME LOWER 80S.

THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK
WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE.

LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS
POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MEAN A RELATIVELY EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
IFR CIGS RETURNING BY 02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AT KMRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: DRP

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