Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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254
FXUS66 KMTR 091242
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
442 AM PST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will continue today under mostly
cloudy skies and moist onshore flow. The next organized warm
front arrives early Saturday morning and then spreads rain
southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday.
Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday with another chance of rain
by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:39 AM PST Friday...Some weak returns
continue to show up on the radar with moist onshore flow still in
place. Rain gages show many buckets still tipping but rainfall
remains light and widely scattered this morning with mild
temperatures in the mid and upper 50s. The forecast for today will
continue to show shower chances but more nuisance than anything
for today. Nam model does indicate some more organized rain will
occur over the Big Sur hills by this afternoon as a jet streak
feature takes aim on the Central Coast.

Then by later this evening the next significant warm front starts
to enter the north bay with rain developing overnight into early
Saturday morning. The front will slowly sag southward on Saturday
spreading periods of moderate rainfall across the district,
somewhat similar to the event that moved through on Weds night
into Thursday. Once again with a warm advection type pattern
expect the heaviest rain to fall in the hills of the North Bay and
Santa Cruz mountains where 1-3 inches of rainfall should be common
by Saturday afternoon.

Things will dry out in the Bay Area by late Saturday afternoon while
rain will linger for the Central Coast into Saturday evening.

High confidence for drying conditions now on Sunday and Monday.

Pattern looks to remain active next week but confidence on
details is low. The Gfs wants to bring the next AR/warm front as
early as Tuesday afternoon while the ecmwf holds off until later
Weds. In this fast moving zonal flow off the Pacific were seeing
pretty dramatic run to run changes in the timing of systems so for
now the extended forecast will show rain chances. Low confidence
on specific timing at this time but high confidence that we`ll see
one or two more rain events next week which in combination with
the rain expected over the next 24-36 hours will keep our year to
date rainfall totals well above 100% for so early in the rain
season.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:45 AM PST Friday...Unsettled weather with
predominately southerly winds, periods of rain, restricted
visibility, and various cloud decks through the TAF period. Model
data shows rather wet air mass confined to first 4000 feet AGL
down to the surface. Ceilingsvisbys will range from IFR to VFR
through the TAF period depending on positioning of frontal
boundaries and showers. Winds will mostly be light southerly. As
for the rain, look for VCSH to isolated rain showers through most
of Friday. The next best shot of rain will move into the North Bay
by 06-09Z before spreading southward through the night and early
morning Saturday.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR ceilings expected through the taf period,
however, brief periods of IFR or VFR may also be possible. Lower
confidence on the timing of breaks/deterioration given poorly
resolved nature of these system. Winds generally southerly through
the day with periods of backing towards the southeast in the
morning and veering towards the southwest in the afternoon.
Heavier rain returns at and prior to sunrise Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Bulk of energy/moisture north of the
area this morning, but expect worsening conditions through the day
as moisture shifts southward. Winds generally light S-SE. VCSH
possible through the day with increasing rain rates early
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:30 AM PST Friday...Light to occasionally
moderate southerly winds will prevail today then increase tonight
and into early tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches the area.
winds will weaken and veer towards the northwest behind this front
for the remainder of the upcoming weekend. a dominate westerly
swell train will move across the waters through the remainder of
the work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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