Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 130012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
412 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

...VERY WARM FEBRUARY WEATHER TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT COASTAL CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WARMING
THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. LARGE LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT AREA
BEACHES...INCLUDING SNEAKER WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PST FRIDAY...MIX OF SUN AND HIGHER
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS BURNED OFF FROM
MOST COASTAL SPOTS THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MOST PART ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY (ESPECIALLY AROUND MONTEREY WHERE WE ARE 8 COOLER THAN
THURSDAY). GUIDANCE PLUS CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY A SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH
BAY FROM THIS FEATURE EARLIER IN THE WEEK, HOWEVER NOW APPEARS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION
STARTING ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING 850 TEMPS TO PUSH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY. IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO APPROACH OR EVEN SET RECORDS FOR AT LEAST ONE
OF THE THREE DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 17-18C
RANGE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH 586 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS. BOTH OF THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR RECORD FOR FEBRUARY, SO FORECAST TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ON MONDAY.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MOSTLY INDICATE A RETURN TO RAIN
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS GREATLY DIMINISHED THE
PRECIPITATION, THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL FAVORS RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, THE ECMWF OPERATION RUN INDICATES RAIN ALONG WITH THE
CANADIAN. CNRFC CURRENTLY HAS 1/2" TO 1" AT THE COAST WITH 2/10"
TO 4/10" FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO THOSE
NUMBERS COULD EASILY CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES FAVOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THAT WOULD TAKE US ALMOST TO THE
END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:52 PM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COASTAL STRATUS SITUATED OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN SLANT-WISE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE (NEAR SUNSET) AS A
RESULT OF HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL AS OVER MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO....VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE 10 TO
20 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO AREA TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO CIGS
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:10 PM PST FRIDAY...LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
                                  8PM SATURDAY
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CANEPA/R_WALBRUN


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