Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291738
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT
TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:39 AM PDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTH...WITH MUCH
OF SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA...SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES
UNDER LOW CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. THE FORT ORD PROFILER
INDICATES A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 2000 FEET...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THUS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST BAY HILLS AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF WITH WARMING OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. SUNDAY COULD BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER...HOWEVER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST
BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND
RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 AM PDT FRIDAY...MONTEREY BAY REGION IS
STILL BEING IMPACTED BY MORNING STRATUS...BUT OTHER TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR. EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AROUND
MONTEREY BAY WITH VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING.
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING WITH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LLWS FOR KOAK TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CONF IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KSFO 21-04Z. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSS. A
FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19-20Z. CIGS RETURN
THIS EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:04 AM PDT FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND
FRESH SWELL. STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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