Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 281137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
437 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, breezy weather will linger through the Memorial Day
weekend. With an upper level low to the north, the Inland
Northwest will experience a chance for showers over the Idaho
Panhandle and the Washington mountains, especially on Sunday. As
high pressure builds into the region, look for a warming trend for
the work week. Much above normal temperatures are anticipated late
in the week. Some areas may see temperatures in the lower 90s by
then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: A disturbance from the trough is swinging
through the Inland Northwest early this morning. A second wave
will move through this afternoon. The best chance of showers will
remain across northern WA and ID. Instability is less than what
was seen yesterday so do not have mention of thunderstorms for the
afternoon. A very isolated strike or two cannot be ruled out along
the Canadian border, but not enough to put thunderstorms across
the region. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday. Tonight showers will decrease with maybe some
isolated showers up along the Canadian border or Cascades. Then
Sunday the trough axis swings through as a ridge begins to build
to the west. This will be the day with the best chance of showers.
But they are still mostly confined to northern WA and ID.
Instability is better and therefore thunderstorms are in the
forecast in the afternoon and evening. Westerly winds will
increase in the afternoon and continue through the evening hours.
Gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible for the Basin/Palouse/Spokane
areas with some localized gusts to 30 mph around the
Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau region. Temperatures will continue to
slowly rise, but still remain below average for this time of the
year. /Nisbet

Monday through Saturday: Following the exit of the upper trough
Sunday Nt, isolated Idaho Panhandle mtn showers will linger into
Mon. Following this, we`ll transition to a wx regime characterized
by rapidly warming temperatures through much of the week as a
sharp upper ridge with ht rises of 80m on the GFS between Mon
morning and Wednesday afternoon strengthens over the region. The
850mb temps warm 9-15C between Mon morning and Thurs...depending
on what model guidance is favored. Concerning this, the GFS has
shown the most believable run to run trend as compared to the
ECMWF and ensemble means, backed up by the Canadian. However,
confidence decreases significantly by late week with the ridge
breakdown as all model guidance is having timing issues with
bringing in a weak short- wave trough and dropping pcpn in the
form of isolated showers and thunder across the Pac Nw. Consensus
among surrounding NWS offices is to stick with the warmer and
more consistent GFS... and not make meaningful changes to the
fcst. Cloud cover moving into region from the south Wed and Thurs
(depending on the areal coverage) would certainly influence the
current mid 80s to mid 90s we have in the fcst. These are all
issues that will be worked out the next few days...including rises
on some streams in the E slopes of the Cascades. The main message
is simple: Expect a big warmup next week! bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid and high level clouds will move through the region
over the next 24 hrs. The main shower threat will be around the
mountains Saturday afternoon, leaving mainly dry conditions at TAF
sites, though some showers may be found in the vcnty of EAT btwn
23-01Z. Winds will be less than yesterday with gusts up to 20kt,
mainly in the Okanogan Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  47  68  46  69  45 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  46  68  45  69  43 /   0   0  20  20  20  20
Pullman        62  45  67  45  68  42 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       69  50  74  50  75  49 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Colville       66  45  70  45  71  42 /  20  10  30  30  20  10
Sandpoint      61  43  66  43  67  39 /  20  10  40  30  20  30
Kellogg        59  42  64  43  64  39 /  10   0  30  20  20  30
Moses Lake     71  48  74  46  76  47 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  52  72  50  75  54 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           70  48  72  46  75  49 /  10  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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