Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 111755 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE (AND ACROSS THE PACNW) REMAINS MOIST
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES. THUS CAN EXPECT VARYING COVERAGES
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS SUCH DID INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, THOUGH THEY ARE WEAKER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2-5
MILES IN FOG, THUS ADDED A MENTION OF FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
FOR THE MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY IF
NOT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS, MAINLY IN OREGON, MAY MIX OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
NEXT WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON AND OFF BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AS 850MB JETS WILL RANGE FROM 30-
45KTS. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS INDICATING 48HR
PRECIP TOTALS OF OVER 1.25" ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND
OVER 2" FOR THE EAGLE CAPS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH. THIS IS DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH NORTH...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO
INTRUDE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
7000+ FT MSL SNOW LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE
TRIED TO MEET THE MODELS IN THE MIDDLE WITH POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 4000 FT MSL ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE
IN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST DISCUSSION
WILL ONLY GO OUT THROUGH THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WITH WARM AIR RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE CASCADES AND IN THE WASHINGTON
PORTION OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
HAVE -SHRA AT TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT
WHERE VCSH WAS USED. IN GENERAL, -SHRA WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
DECREASE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME BR TOMORROW MORNING IN A FEW PLACES SO
HAVE 4-6SM TOMORROW MORNING AT KDLS, KYKM AND KALW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  40  52  39 /  20  20  40  50
ALW  48  43  53  42 /  20  20  40  50
PSC  50  37  52  36 /  20  20  40  30
YKM  48  37  49  36 /  30  40  30  30
HRI  52  39  53  38 /  20  20  40  40
ELN  41  32  45  31 /  40  50  40  30
RDM  57  37  57  36 /  30  20  30  30
LGD  48  38  51  37 /  10  20  20  40
GCD  54  36  55  35 /  20  20  10  40
DLS  53  41  54  40 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83


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