Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 011918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



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