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000
FXUS61 KPHI 220121
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
921 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore on Sunday and Monday. A strong
cold front is forecast to move across our region Tuesday night. Low
pressure is expected to develop along the front and it should be
located over or near New England and southeastern Canada on
Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Despite the cirrus overhead, light/calm winds and low enough
dew points have allowed the temperatures to quickly cool this
evening across the entire area. Some updates were issued earlier
to keep the temperatures more current based on the faster drop.
The 930 PM update adjusted these again, however low temperatures
were not changed much at this time especially since the dew
points have now come up more across much of the region.

Otherwise, an upper air analysis this evening shows a ridge
axis near the East Coast. A 250 mb jet is positioned from the
Southern Plains to the Midwest with a second segment from the
Mid- Mississippi Valley to north of the Great Lakes. At the
surface, high pressure is centered near the Delmarva coast.

High pressure at the surface will slowly move offshore through the
overnight. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of cirrus streaming
northward all the way from the Gulf Coast states this evening, and
this is expected to continue through the overnight although it may
thin at times. The sky cover was adjusted upward a bit more.
The presence of the cirrus, especially if it is thick enough,
should limit fog development late tonight despite the dew points
rebounding. Given the light to calm winds at the surface though,
we kept some patchy fog especially for parts of northeastern
Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Winds will still be light but start to turn from out of the
southeast on the backside of the high. This will lead to a
further increase of moisture and warm air into the region. The
overall moisture transport looks slow, so we should be able to
get one more mostly sunny day Sunday. Temperatures will warm
fairly rapidly as well into the mid and upper 70`s, perhaps a
degree or two cooler than today (Saturday) based on modeled 925
mb temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The surface high will be well off the coast on Sunday night and
Monday. The return flow on the back side of the high is
expected to bring increasing moisture into our region. As a
result, we continue to anticipate low clouds and patchy fog for
late Sunday night into Monday morning.

The axis of the mid level ridge is forecast to be located along
the east coast on Sunday evening. A mid level low is expected
to be centered over Missouri at that time. As the ridge moves
out to sea, a re-enforcing long wave trough should begin to drop
over the Mississippi River Valley. The mid level low is
anticipated to fill with its remnants being drawn up and over
our region late on Monday night. The long wave trough is
forecast to influence the eastern states during the mid week
period before it lifts to the northeast.

The surface cold front is expected to extend from the Great
Lakes to the central Gulf Coast on Sunday night. The feature
should already be tapping into gulf moisture at that time. As
the remnants of the mid level low pass overhead and as the cold
front approaches, there will be an increasing chance of showers
in our region from Monday night into Tuesday. Enhanced lift from
late Monday night into Tuesday will likely result in period of
moderate to heavy rain along with a chance of thunder. It
appears as though rainfall totals will favor the 0.25 to 1.00
inch range.

The cyclonic flow aloft along with the slowly departing cold
front and surface low pressure over or near New England should
keep clouds and a low or slight chance of showers in our region
during the mid week period.

High pressure is expected to bring some clearing for Friday and
Saturday.

Daytime temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal
on Monday and Tuesday. Readings are forecast to drop back to
more typical levels for late October during the period from
Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR with clouds around 25000 feet. Light and variable
to calm winds.

Sunday...VFR. Light and variable to calm winds, becoming
southeasterly less than 10 knots. Any low cloud development late
in the afternoon however is anticipated to stay offshore.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night and Monday...Low clouds and fog are possible mainly
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise...mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Conditions lowering to
MVFR and IFR in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible on Tuesday, along with a south wind
gusting around 25 or 30 knots.

Wednesday...Conditions improving to VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Wave heights will be in a fairly stable state of around two feet
through Sunday. Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less through
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night through Monday night...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening...A Small Craft Advisory may be
need for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots. Waves on our ocean
waters may build to 7 to 10 feet.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday...A Small Craft Advisory
may be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of 5 to 6
feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around 10 to 20
knots.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Gorse/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/Iovino
Equipment...