Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT THU OCT 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. A flat upper ridge was
noted over the region this afternoon as a weak Pac disturbance was
moving into WRN Canada. As this wave passes east this afternoon and
tonight, light showers are anticipated over the mountains north of
Challis and Stanley otherwise SE Idaho should remain dry under
passing high clouds. A second disturbance passes over the ridge
Friday night into Saturday for a slight risk of showers once again
along the Montana border north of Challis. Daytime temps should
remain unseasonably warm Friday into Saturday. Huston

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. The models continue to
show extreme differences for early next week. The trend for at least
Saturday through Monday is toward drier conditions as the
progression of the storm has slowed down a bit. We still have a
slight chance/low chance of showers for Monday at this point. At
this point, the GFS and ECMWF get way off track. The ECMWF continues
with a much wetter forecast as it actually brings a stronger system
across the west. The GFS on the other is swinging now toward a much
drier forecast especially by Thursday. It has less coverage with
just mainly mountain showers for Tuesday, with only the central
mountain with showers on Wednesday. Since there continues to be no
true consensus at this point, we didn`t make any huge changes to the
forecast other than to tweak and match up better with surrounding
offices. Even if we end up with quite a bit more rain and mountain
snow, it certainly won`t be like the last 2 big events where a
couple of inches of rain fell in some places. Keyes

.AVIATION...Other than some high and mid clouds passing overhead,
quiet weather remains in place. Winds won`t get too strong and we
are not expecting any TAF sites to be impacted by patchy fog or
stratus. In other words, VFR will be the norm.  Keyes

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

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