Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 291918
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
118 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. The ridge will
gradually shift over the state and east by later Wednesday. We
will continue with some isolated showers and thunderstorms through
this evening. The best chances will be across portions of the
central Mountains and Upper Snake Highlands. It`s possible a storm
or 2 could push across the Upper Plain but they should weaken or
die out in the process. Coverage will be lower tomorrow and
through Wednesday afternoon and what available moisture is there
gets pushed to the north and east. By Wednesday night, southwest
flow develops as the ridge is centered along the Front Range of
the Rockies and wave No. 1 is pushing inland. Moisture will be
increasing again with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected mostly northwest of a Ellis-Galena Summit line.

It will be breezy from time to time especially once we get to
Wednesday and that weaker storm approaches. Temperatures should
peak also that day, with valley temperatures in the 80s to almost
90. 60s to mid 70s are forecast in the mountains. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
An upper level trof moving through Thursday will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms along with a drop in temperatures.   May
see some lingering showers Friday in eastern highlands mainly along
the wyoming border with dry conditions expected elsewhere.  Expect
high temperatures about 10 degrees colder Thursday and Friday than
Wednesday but still above normal.  Should have dry conditions on
Saturday under ridge with both GFS and European models bringing in a
trof Sunday into Monday.  GFS is wetter and stronger with the system
and European faster and drier.  For now kept in low chances of
showers and thunderstorms mainly in mountains Sunday and Monday.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Will be widespread VFR through Tuesday.   Did put in some VCTS at
SUN and DIJ with some convective activity developing in mountains
near SUN this afternoon.   Winds should remain light into Tuesday
afternoon.
GK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will continue to rapidly warm up through
midweek, with above freezing lows helping to keep snowmelt going
and likely helping to increase it somewhat. The areal flood
warning for the central mountains continues as levels are starting
to rise again. The Flood Warning for the Bear River remains in
effect as levels will flirt with flood stage and slowly rise
during the latter half of the week. The Flood Advisory for the
Portneuf will remain for the next 24 hours, but could easily be
dropped as levels are still dropping. Of course, flooding along
the Big Wood River through the Wood River Valley will be there for
a while. With snowmelt picking back up, we are looking for it to
rise again especially through the next 48-72 hours.  Keyes


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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