Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 220038
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
138 PM SST MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
MODELS...DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TERRITORY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN MERGING THIS TROUGH WITH ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS MERGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING TREND IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE TERRITORY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS MIGRATES FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND RIDGE...THEN SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING BACK TO
TRADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FAR
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MIGRATES
EAST...AND PUSHES THE TROUGH LINE OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTH.
HENCE...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO PREVAIL TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED TRADE SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW
THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LINE TO
THE NORTH DRIFT BACK OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STILL FORECASTED TO BRIEFLY REACH COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ONE WILL REACH COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL LIKELY ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF TONIGHT DUE TO SEAS AND SURF...AND WILL
REISSUE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SEAS...SURF AND INCREASING
TRADES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE






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