Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 280747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
242 PM ChST Sun May 28 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
A few clouds and showers are seen across the region with moderate
trade winds. Buoys show seas between 4 and 6 feet.


Made just a few minor additions to the forecast to account for
increased moisture in the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as winds
weaken and a surface trough passes through the area. Computer models
show only a marginal increase in showers, but the more noticeable
effect should be a few more clouds in the area. The remainder of the
week will be back to partly cloudy. No significant rain makers are
expected through at least the next week and a half with both the GFS
and ECMWF indicated less than an inch of rain over the next 10 days.
The fire danger will continue to increase, but fortunately winds will
decrease through midweek. Seas will also fall about a foot or two by


.Eastern Micronesia...
The afternoon satellite imagery showed mainly isolated showers over
the eastern half of Micronesia. An area of scattered showers could be
found west of Pohnpei. This area was moving westward, but lingering
moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy at Pohnpei tonight. Isolated
showers are expected across the eastern half of Micronesia the coming
week. An upper-level trough, now located north of 15N this afternoon,
will gradually push southward during the week. Weak trade-wind
convergence will also be present and the combination of these
features will produce mostly cloudy skies and patchy showers over the
area the second half of the week.


.Western Micronesia...
A few trade-wind disturbances could be found across western
Micronesia this afternoon. One disturbance will bring scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to Chuuk tonight. Lingering trade-
wind convergence will keep skies mostly cloudy and produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms at Chuuk the remainder of the week.

A second disturbance, east of Palau this afternoon, will move
westward. Most of these showers will slip south of this location
tonight and Monday, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop northward and push across Palau Monday night through
Tuesday night. Lingering convergence in the wake of the disturbance
will produce patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms the remainder
of the week at Palau.

The bulk of the activity associated with the Palau disturbance will
remain south of Yap, but be close enough to produce mostly cloudy
skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms across Yap tonight through
Monday night. High pressure building across Yap will keep showers to
a minimum the second half of the week.


Marianas Waters...None.


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