Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 220614
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
414 PM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 12N AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF GUAM NEAR 148E...WHICH ARE EDGING OUR WAY. ASCAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS A CIRCULATION NEAR 11N151E THATS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98W.
VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE NORTH 5 TO 10 KT BUT SURFACE WINDS RANGE
FROM NE TO NW IN THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS
NEAR 4 FEET WITH DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS FROM WEST...AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR MARIANA ISLANDS BECAUSE OF
THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR 11N151E.
TRACKING THIS DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION WILL BE OUR MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING OUR WAY
FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED TODAY
MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GFS INITIALIZED THE
CIRCULATION TOO FAR NORTHEAST...AND THAT MAKES THE FORECAST MORE
DIFFICULT. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED ADJUSTMENTS AS THE
SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE COMING DAYS...AND
THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NEAR 11N151E WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. NORTHEAST COMPONENTS OF SWELL AND WIND WAVES
ARE ALREADY ARRIVING ALONG WITH THE SMALL SOUTHWEST SWELL THAT
PERSISTS. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR BOTH THE WIND AND
WAVE GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON




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