Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 080520
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
320 PM CHST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE MARIANAS IN A LARGE MAINLY DRY AREA BETWEEN A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OUT EAST OF THE ISLANDS. EAST WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH...AND
SEAS ARE AROUND 7 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE REDUCED ALREADY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TONIGHT IN VIEW OF THE VERY DRY SOUNDING AND MODEL PREDICTIONS OF
SIMILAR DRYNESS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED. THE
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WED-THU...AND A SHEARLINE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WILL DO THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SHEARLINE SHOULD ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 6-8 FT SEAS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED
NIGHT...BUT THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD RISE STARTING THURSDAY AS
THE SHEARLINE MOVES IN...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE KBDI ABOUT TO BREAK 700 AND WINDS RISING LATE THIS
WEEK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS MID-WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND MAY
MITIGATE FIRE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS FAIRLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
OF MAJURO AND EAST OF KOSRAE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE MIDWEEK...BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AT MAJURO. MODELS HINT AT A SMALL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE
TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES OF POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE THREAT OF
INUNDATION AT MAJURO IS STILL PRESENT DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...ALTHOUGH BELOW-NORMAL SEA LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT
EL NINO WILL REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...INUNDATION OF
1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT MAJURO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO BY
WEDNESDAY...POHNPEI BY TUESDAY WHILE LINGERING ON KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED. AT YAP AND
KOROR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TRADE-WINDS...SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CHUUK COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OF JAPAN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT



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