Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
235
FXPQ60 PGUM 030603
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS TODAY. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY TO GUAM AND ROTA...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS GUAM...PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
COULD RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE
THE SHORT TERM FIRE HAZARD. AS OF TODAY...THE KBDI ROSE TO 765.
THE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 0.17 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY...JUST
SHORT OF THE 0.20 INCHES NEEDED TO AFFECT THE KBDI. WITH SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WE COULD EASILY SEE A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE KBDI TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE WHILE A FAIRLY DECENT-LOOKING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
SLIPPING BY JUST NORTH OF MAJURO. THE BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BOTH LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ITS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE
RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF IN VIEW OF THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING
RAIN IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. BUT SOME RELIEF MAY BE IN SIGHT FOR
NEXT WEEK...AS BOTH MODELS BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHUUK AS EXPECTED...BUT DRY OVER
YAP AND KOROR. YAP AND KOROR WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL FRI-SUN FOR KOROR. SOME RELIEF FROM THE
DRYNESS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE ECMWF RETURNS SHOWERS TO
BOTH LOCATIONS. FOR CHUUK...HAVE EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED NIGHT PER GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH BEYOND TONIGHT
AS THE ECMWF ENDS THE RAINY WEATHER WED MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.