Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242201
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
801 AM CHST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7 TO 11 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARD THE MARIANAS...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL
HAVE THE EFFECT OF MAKING LOCAL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. SEA HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE ALONG
WITH THE WINDS. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL CREATE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ISLAND CONVECTION
THOUGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATEST ENSO DIAGNOSTIC UPDATE FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONFIRMS THAT A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES. THE MARIANAS HAVE HAD A
WETTER THAN NORMAL DRY SEASON...MICRONESIA IS HAVING A RATHER BUSY
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SO FAR AND PALAU HAS BEEN DRY. SO FAR THIS
MONTH...PALAU HAS MEASURED 4.12 INCHES OUT OF 8.16 INCHES NORMAL
RAINFALL OR ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FOR THE WHOLE YEAR TO
DATE THEY HAVE 27.18 INCHES OUT OF 47.25 NORMAL OR ABOUT 58
PERCENT OF NORMAL. IF THE DEFICIT GROWS MUCH LARGER WE MAY NEED TO
START ISSUING DROUGHT STATEMENTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE GFS40 PREDICTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF-HIRES PREDICTS ABOUT AN
INCH. THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ARE
FOR AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS EL NINO CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE YEAR. THE MODEL PLUMES INDICATE IT COULD GROW FROM WEAK
TO MODERATE OR EVEN STRONG IN THAT TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLUME
EVEN HINTS AT A CHANCE THIS COULD BE AN EXTREME TO RECORD EVENT.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NORTH OF POHNPEI ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 8N155E WHILE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST OF KOSRAE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION GRADUALLY BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 10N IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES BETWEEN TRADE WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING WESTWARD SOUTH OF 10N. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE MARSHALLS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS FOUND SOUTH OF 5N139E WITH A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
NEAR 8N155E. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR YAP...
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. WET WEATHER AT YAP
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WEAK WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR. SOUTH WINDS AT
CHUUK WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD...REMAINING BROAD AND WEAK AS IT STAYS NEAR 10N.
LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT



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