Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 211933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
530 AM ChST Mon Jan 22 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
WSR88D data shows isolated light showers across the Marianas this
morning. Partly cloudy skies with moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail across the region. Latest buoy observations show seas between
6 and 8 feet.


A fairly dry pattern remains over the region this morning. This
pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon. Latest
model guidance now shows a weak surface trough moving though the
Marianas Tuesday night into Wednesday. This trough is evident on
satellite data over the northern Marshall Islands. Due to limited
mid-level moisture, not much is expected with the system. Increased
cloud cover with the trough to mostly cloudy for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night and added a slight chance of thunderstorms.
By Thursday morning, the dry pattern will return to the Marianas.


Latest buoy observations show seas have begun to increase across the
area. Seas are now between 6 and 8 feet and will continue to slowly
build through this evening, reaching 7 to 9 feet by tonight. this
will maintain a high risk of rip currents along east facing reefs for
the next few days. Moderate to fresh, and occasionally strong trade
winds are likely through the next few days as well. Neither wind nor
seas are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels at this time,
however, both will be monitored for this possibility for the next
couple of days.


.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Moderate to fresh trade winds with patchy clouds and showers are
found across much of the region from north of Chuuk, to near
Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near
Majuro and south of Kosrae along the leading edge of a trade wind
surge. Little change is expected in the next few days with patchy
showers continuing westward. GFS hints at a wetter trade-wind
pattern later in the week that could bring more showers to Kosrae
and Pohnpei Thursday and Friday.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves, and a long-period north swell will
keep combined seas elevated at Pohnpei and Kosrae this week. For
now, neither component is expected to bring surf to hazardous
levels, but will have to keep a close watch at Kosrae due to their
lower surf thresholds.


.Western Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms are present across Palau and Yap this
morning with a surface trough situated southwest of Koror and
another trough moving in from east of Yap. The current unsettled
weather pattern will persist a few days before drier northeast
trades build in from the east on Thursday and Friday.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves will keep combined seas elevated
at Yap and Koror the next few days. Seas and surf will keep below
hazardous levels. Later in the week, stronger trades near and
north of a shear line will bring higher seas and surf that could
become hazardous Saturday or Sunday.


GU...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for GUZ001>004.

     Fire Weather Watch through this evening for GUZ001.

Marianas Waters...None.


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