Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010553 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RE-SEND FOR WEB PAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
337 PM CHST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR
INDICATES ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER OUT TO THE EAST AROUND 148E AND
BEYOND. SEAS ARE STILL NEAR 7 FEET AT THE GUAM BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR DUE TO RETURN AS EASTERLY TRADES BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR SO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIP RISK SHOULD BE MODERATE ALL WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AT TIMES AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT WED-THU WHEN RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK THROUGH A SECOND WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. CONVERGING WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SECOND CIRCULATION ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
KOSRAE...ACROSS POHNPEI TO JUST EAST OF CHUUK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...KEEPING POHNPEI IN AN OVERALL
UNSTABLE PATTERN UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
INTO CHUUK WATERS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MORE STABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE IS EXITING THE RMI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE...MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF POHNPEI...ALLOWING STABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER TRADE-WINDS ARE FILTERING INTO MAJURO THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS EVIDENT OVER THE MARSHALLS ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MAJURO BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO KOSRAE
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST GFS40 SHOWS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA AND WAVE WATCH MODELS INDICATE SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT
KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA
ABOVE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OUT OF CHUUK STATE IS
APPROACHING YAP AND PALAU. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AT YAP AND MONDAY AT KOROR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT YAP BY MONDAY AND AT KOROR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTHWARD...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER AT
KOROR THAN YAP. DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED AT YAP BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE IN TO KOROR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS PUSHED
BACK TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE



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