Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300723
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
523 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HALONG PASSED THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. WINDS AND RAIN
ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE FORECAST ZONES AS THE RAIN SHIELD
OF HALONG SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD OF
HALONG...OR SOUTHEAST OF GUAM COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUAM AND ROTA EXPERIENCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HALONG CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWEST. GUAM RECEIVED 8 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
PASSAGE OF HALONG. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
GUAM. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS APPEARS IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE TORRENTIAL RAINS OF TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST
GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE 300 PM ISSUANCE OF ROUTINE
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARIANAS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONTINUED WEST SWELL FROM
HALONG THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A SHARP WEST-EAST
GRADIENT OF WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXIST ACROSS MARIANAS WATERS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS APPROACHING 18 FEET BENEATH THE EASTERN EYEWALL
...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER ROTA WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HALONG INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WERE CANCELED FOR
TINIAN AND SAIPAN...SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WERE
RESUMED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WHILE
A DISTURBANCE IS FOUND EAST OF POHNPEI NEAR 8N161E. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CONTINUING WESTWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP WET WEATHER IN PLACE OVER POHNPEI
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS SEEN FARTHER EAST SPREAD
INTO POHNPEI STATE. ECMWF INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EAST OF THE DATE LINE COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAJURO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REMAINS WITHIN DRY RIDGING IN THE LEE OF TROPICAL STORM
HALONG. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A DISTURBANCE EAST OF POHNPEI BRINGS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS. A GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE CIRCULATION EAST OF TAIWAN DOMINATES THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS.

ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS THAT SWELL HAVE SUBSIDED AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THESE LOCALES. AS A RESULT...SURF ON YAP AND KOROR
HAS FALLEN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST TONIGHT FOR GUZ001-002.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ001.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ002.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ151.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ152.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS/W. AYDLETT





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