Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 250918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
720 PM ChST Tue Apr 25 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Tropical Depression 03W is located west of Guam and is moving
slowly westward. A mostly cloudy sky continued across the
Marianas, with scattered showers, mainly for Guam and Rota and
isolated showers further north.


Tropical Depression 03W is located near 12N136E, west of Guam. It
was moving slowly westward. Some moisture associated with the
system has been moving westward and northwestward and has been
bringing showers mainly to GUam and Rota. Expect the scattered
showers to continue through the night before becoming more
isolated in nature as the Depression moves slowly away. As has
been the case for the past few days, the GFS continues to be the
wetter model than the ECMWF. Don`t expect to see any major
clearing and drying before the weekend. Even in the drier ECMWF
solution, there will be plenty of clouds through most of the week.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough moving westward from Pohnpei to Chuuk will keep
some showers near Pohnpei tonight and Chuuk on Wednesday. To the
east, the leading edge of a fresh trade-wind surge in the form of a
disturbance is moving across the western Marshall Islands this
evening. Convection associated with this feature should pull west of
Majuro this evening and then reach Kosrae on Wednesday. This same
feature will also affect Pohnpei on Wednesday night and Chuuk on
Thursday. Much drier northeasterly trades in the wake of the
disturbance should usher in a fair trade pattern for Majuro by
Wednesday morning, Pohnpei and Chuuk after midweek. For Kosrae, the
convergent trade winds could still be close enough to maintain
periodic showers for most the week.


.Western Micronesia...
Forecast discussion for Chuuk can be found under Eastern Micronesia

Tropical Depression 03W is becoming better organized and moving
slowly westward from north-northwest of Yap near 13N136E. Gentle
southwest to south winds to the south of 03W and drier air aloft
will sustain pleasant conditions near Koror thru Friday. Modest
converging south to southeast winds flowing toward 03W will keep off
and on showers and a thunderstorm or two near Yap until Thursday
evening. Once 03W has tracked farther northwest on Thursday night,
surface ridging should finally introduce drier weather for Yap.
Gentle trade winds should return to both locations during this
weekend. At the same time, mid-level moisture being advected from
the south could induce more frequent trade-wind showers.


Marianas Waters...None.


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