Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 122008 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
608 AM CHST SUN JUL 13 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TS RAMMASUN IS CENTERED OVER 250 MILES WEST OF GUAM...AND ITS
EFFECTS ON THE MARIANAS HAVE ENDED APART FROM SOME MINOR WEST
SWELL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS
MOST OF THE MARIANAS WATERS...BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN.
SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FEET AT THE BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THAT RAMMASUN IS OUT OF THE PICTURE...THINGS LOOK MUCH QUIETER
FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE. INSERTED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE BOTH INDICATING SOME THUNDER NEAR AND NORTH OF
BOTH ISLANDS. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREATS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...LEAVING A FAIRLY WEAK MONSOON
TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE REVAMPED THE SWELL AND SEAS GRIDS...RESULTING IN SEAS ABOUT
2 FEET LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE BUOYS.
WITH RAMMASUN NOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT
ANY HAZARDOUS SWELL FROM THAT QUARTER...AND CURRENT 2-3 FT WEST
SWELL GRIDS LOOK ADEQUATE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS AROUND A MONSOON TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
OVER THE REGION FROM TS RAMMASUN THROUGH A CIRCULATION CENTERED
NORTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 9N159E TO ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED
NORTH OF MAJURO EASTWARD PAST THE DATE LINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER POHNPEI BUT
TODAY APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY FOR KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND MAJURO TODAY AND
MAY LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED AROUND 10N LATITUDE WITH SUBTLE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS LONG AS THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST POINTS. MODELS SHOW A QUIETER TRADE-WIND REGIME
RETURNING ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RETREATS WESTWARD. ADVERSE AFFECTS
OF THE DISTURBANCES NEAR POHNPEI AND MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER CHUUK WATERS THIS MORNING BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AT CHUUK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
DISTURBANCES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA PASS TO THE NORTH. TROPICAL
STORM RAMMASUN WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF YAP TODAY AND KOROR TONIGHT.
SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY RAMMASUN WILL AFFECT YAP AND KOROR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER NEAR YAP
THROUGH MIDWEEK CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE.
MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT NO MAJOR ORGANIZED WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS








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