Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 060555
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT
IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING.  AFTER SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND
NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM.  THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO
STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND
THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST
BEFORE 900 PM.  THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL
DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE
GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.  OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED.

WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE
HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH.  GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO
FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE.  THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW
HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM
MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS
WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND
RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD
TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU
DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF
THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES
TO ALIGN.

CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT


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