Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 231110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM



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