Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 280838
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
138 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from near Interstate 80
and southward, mainly along the Sierra this afternoon. Chances
for thunderstorms will remain possible over the weekend with more
isolated coverage expected early next week as high pressure
strengthens across the Great Basin. Temperatures will warm to well
above average this weekend and stay hot through much of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Main concerns through the next week will be chances for
thunderstorms and increasing temperatures. Expanded thunderstorm
chances a little bit further north today since we had a few
isolated thunderstorms as far north as Reno yesterday afternoon
and evening. Similar conditions will exist today with sufficient
moisture and heating to produce some storms.

For tonight, a weak low off the CA coast will make its way inland
which may allow for some nocturnal thunderstorms late tonight into
Saturday morning. An upper level wave associated with the low may
kick off thunderstorms just before sunrise on Saturday morning
across western Nevada. Some simulations are showing convection as
far west as Reno, but others show development further east across
Pershing and Churchill counties early Saturday morning.

By Saturday, any convection that occurred overnight may continue
through the afternoon and evening as the wave associated with the
upper low skirts eastward through the day. Latest model
simulations keep the best instability and divergence aloft further
east across northeastern Nevada (Lander, Eureka, and Elko
counties). That being said, we should still get some thunderstorm
development across far western Nevada on Saturday, but the storms
may not be as strong or long-lasting since they will lack that
upper level forcing.

On Sunday, as high pressure strengthens across the West, more
typical thunderstorm development is forecast due to diurnal
heating with chances limited to along the Sierra in Mono and Inyo
counties.

Outside of thunderstorm concerns, temperatures will begin to heat
up this weekend into next week with highs in the upper 90s and
nearing 100 degrees for lower valley locations. Generally, winds
will remain light with typical afternoon breezes forecast outside
of any gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds. Edan


.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

Medium range solutions have trended back to stronger with ridge
over the Sierra and Great Basin for the first half of next week
which would keep thunderstorm coverage isolated and mainly along
the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. Temperatures would also push over
100 degrees for western NV valleys with hotter spots getting to
105 degrees or a bit higher. Later in the week, there are
indications that moisture and instability will build as ridge
retreats and trough moves into the northeast Pacific. Increasing
southeast flow on western side of ridge will push storm chances to
the Oregon border Thursday and out into western NV as well by
Friday. Temperatures should cool a few degrees by the end of the
week but still be well above normal. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each afternoon
through the weekend with about a 10% chance of a storm at any of
the airports. Otherwise VFR conditions are going to prevail with
brief afternoon breezes along the lee of the Sierra with gusts
around 20 kts. Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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