Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 210717
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 8C ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND 3-4C ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH RESPECT TO
YESTERDAY...AND DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S.

NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CANOPY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY
LOW DEW POINTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF RADIATIVE COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS FALL
BACK ONLY INTO THE 40S.

LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
ENCROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN IMPACT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS
SOLUTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE BEST COVERAGE
JUMPS TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
WITH A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF DRYING IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE OF 12 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT TO AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BE SETTLED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL
HELP PROMPT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...GUSTS WILL BE MORE
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FROST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON STILL HAS NOT
STARTED IN THIS PARTS...SO NO FROST ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PREDOMINATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S
PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER
PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC
WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED
AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER
AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE
SITES IN SE WEST VA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY...
LIGHT AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY POSE SOME TRANSPORT ISSUES FOR
SCHEDULED PRESCRIBED BURNS DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY CALM THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...BECOMING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VARIABLE THIS MORNING...
BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN EVEN MORE OPTIMAL
CONDITION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...WERT



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