Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 030307 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 PM AST TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED OVER LAND EVEN AS A CREST OF
MINOR FLOODING MOVED DOWN THE CULEBRINAS TOWARD MARGARITA DAM.
THE RIVER GAGE IS REPORTING ONLY HOURLY AT PRESENT...AND LAST
HOUR SHOWED 13.74 FEET AT THE MARGARITA DAM. AT MOCA THE
CULEBRINAS HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS MOVING BELOW 18 FEET. THIS
GAGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OR JUST EXCEED 15 FEET BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE GENERATED ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CABO
SAN JUAN AND NOW APPEAR TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE COAST FROM RIO
GRANDE TO CATANO. ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING...NOW
EXPECT SHOWERS FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES WITHIN A FEW MILES INLAND OF
THE BEACH. ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP TO ONE TENTH INCH. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE HEADED TOWARD SAINT JOHN ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS.

A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED AROUND THE 700 MB
LOW AND DRAPES SOUTH TOWARD PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOLD
GOOD MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR FLOW AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY FROM TODAY. HENCE HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO WEDNESDAY. SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE CULEBRINAS MAY ALSO LEAVE
ITS BANKS AROUND MOCA AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR
CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. E TO ESE SFC WIND AT
10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...AND SEA BREEZE ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY...REACHING A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. THEN SEAS INCREASE
AGAIN SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN SO SEAS WILL ONLY REACH 6 FEET
IN THE FAR CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM AST TUE JUN 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF PR TODAY. IT
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PR...ST THOMAS AND ST
CROIX. FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND EASTERN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...CIALES...FLORIDA...LARES...CIALES
MOCA...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...NAGUABO AMONG OTHER
MUNICIPALITIES. THEREFORE...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE REQUIRED ACROSS THESE SECTIONS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT BUILD A DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AT LEAST UNTIL EVENING HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS DUE TO
+SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE TJBQ/JMZ...ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL TIL 02/23Z. THEN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. E TO ESE SFC WIND AT 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR
SHRA/TSRA... LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 4 FEET AND TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  92 /  20  60  30  30
STT  78  86  78  87 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12



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