Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 240247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
MINOR MODIFICATION WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE ONGOING SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIST AND TISX THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM AST
WEDNESDAY...FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM AST TUE SEP 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT OR SAT.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY DEEP WITH PWS AROUND 2.2
INCHES. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 42W. CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS WAVE BUT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES THE TUTT AXIS
WEST OF 50W BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA IS LIKED BY GFS AND SEVERL GEFS MEMBERS. BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OP GFS AND GEFS SHOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ABOUT 10 OF 20 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH MSLP`S 1005 MB OR WEAKER. AS
THE CURRENT TUTT PATTERN WEAKENS...THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JBQ...JMZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN AT JMZ ONLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 KT AND WINDS 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  78  88 /  30  30  10  10
STT  78  88  79  88 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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