Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 271757
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL DECREASE...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...
PROMOTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH
THE RISK HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDY TIL THE EVENING
HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFT 27/23Z. SOME
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...
TISX. HOWEVER...NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KT DROPPING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS. HOWEVER...WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT. A NW
SWELL GROUP IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN INCREASING THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  85  74  85 /  10  20  20  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23





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