Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
916 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERING A HUGE AREA...FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
103 DEGS...WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH INHERITED/EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH
BASES AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 12
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. ORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
HELPING SURGE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS FURTHER
PRIMING THE REGION IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF US AND KEEPING THINGS ON
TRACK FOR MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 15N IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NORBERT) AND PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO STRONGLY
REINFORCE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUSH. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REFLECT THIS VERY WELL BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT`S STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LITTLE FURTHER OUT...ECMWF HAS A VERY INTERESTING WEST COAST
TROUGH RESOLUTION THAT DRAWS THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH
THAT`S DAYS 8-9 BUT YEOW. CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR CALLING FOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE SATURDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING SOLID.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL





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