Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 070959
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
259 AM MST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERAL DRYING TREND WAS ON THE WAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTING IN
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. THIS INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. STILL
EXPECTING A ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
WORKING BACK INTO ARIZONA FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
CLOSE TO NORMALS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLR
TO SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT-BKN
5-9K FT AGL FROM KTUS EASTWARD AFTER 08/19Z. SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS APART FROM THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF TUCSON. SOME INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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