Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level low near the Desert Southwest will
help maintain temperatures a few degrees below average into early
next week. Then high pressure will build over the region the second
half of next week, resulting in hotter temperatures with highs of 100
or more forecast across the lower deserts by Thursday or Friday.


.DISCUSSION...It will remain rather quiet across the region into
early next week with temperatures a bit below average through
Tuesday. This will allow southern Arizona to finish out the month
cooler than normal and the second May in a row to do so. For the
next 4 days this is primarily due to a weak low that will be moving
slowly across the area. Beside being weak, this system is moisture
starved so not much in the way of sensible weather with it other
than a slightly enhanced SW breeze the next few afternoons.

Wednesday onward an upper level ridge is expected to build along the
west coast and shift east over the interior western states which will
cause temperatures to climb the end of next week. Some variations in
the models on the structure of the ridge, but at this point it looks
like a pretty good bet for 100+ degree high temperatures the western
deserts Thursday onward with correspondingly hot temperatures east
of Tucson. At this point there is a small chance for 100 at TIA
Thursday and a better chance Friday.


Clear skies will prevail through the period except sct cumulus
clouds 10-12k ft agl in the afternoon over the mountains well NE of
KTUS. Normal diurnal wind trends mainly less than 10 kts this
morning and again overnight into Sunday, but increasing west and
southwest winds of around 12 to 18 knots this afternoon and early
evening with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with near normal conditions expected
this weekend and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal
20-ft winds, but still gusty during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day through late in the week. Above normal temperatures
expected late next week into the following weekend.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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