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000
FXUS65 KTWC 172049
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 PM MST Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong
warming trend into next week. A weak passing weather system will
bring breezy conditions on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across southeastern Arizona with
temperatures 4-8 degrees above this time yesterday. This warming
trend will continue into the end of the work week as the main
storm track remains well to the north, which keeps Arizona under
positive height anomalies. Still a chance for Tucson to hit 95
degrees Thursday and Friday with the NBM giving a 16 and 22
percent chance respectively each day.

A weak shortwave will move through Friday into Saturday leading to
breezy winds Friday and lingering breezes east of Tucson Saturday.
It will also provide a few degrees of cooling Saturday, but high
temperatures will still be 4-6 degree above normal. This
"cooldown" will be short-lived as heights increase again into
early next week. This will lead to Tucson making another run at 95
by Monday. Then ensembles hint at Pacific low moving through the
region mid to late next week which could lead to a cool down and
increase in winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
SKC through the evening becoming SCT 25k ft AGL after 18/12Z.
Typical diurnal wind trends generally less than 10 kts, westerly
in the afternoon and variable other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with a strong warming trend across SE AZ into
next week. Minimum relative humidity values generally below 12%
in valleys, dropping to single digits at times. Typical diurnal
wind trends most of the week, with a breezy Friday afternoon as a
weak dry weather system pushes across.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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