Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
935 PM MST Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot temperatures will continue on Sunday but the
end is near for this historic heat wave. Moisture increase tonight
into Sunday will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances Sunday and Monday. Some drying will limit thunderstorms the
second half of the new week, with temperatures closer to normal for
late June as we back away from the record heat.


.DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms across Greenlee county this
afternoon sent an outflow SW toward Safford and the Frye wildfire
with gusts up to 35 mph. The bigger thunderstorms late this
afternoon into this evening were occurring across SW New Mexico
which produced strong gusty winds and dust storms. Outflow from
these storms have been pushing west across Cochise county this
evening with gusts up to 45 mph with a few terrain driven gusts up
to 55 mph in the Chiricahua mountains. Surface dewpoints in the
upper 40s to lower 50s has pushed west into Western Graham and
Cochise counties as of 9 am. Additional outflow from Sonora will be
pushed NW overnight.

Satellite imagery this evening showed lots of cloud cover across the
area, even across SW AZ as clouds push north from the Gulf of
California and western Sonora. The cloud cover, increased low level
moisture along with E-SE winds of 8-18 mph, gusty at times, will
keep it really really warm during the overnight hours. Updated the
forecast for warmer overnight lows with the best chances of
measurable rain remaining south and east of Tucson overnight.

The increase in moisture will lead to an increase in afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Monday as the
historic heat wave loses its grip on the area.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 26/00Z.
Mostly SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-15k ft AGL thru the fcst pd. Isold -
SHRA/TS mainly E and S of KTUS thru 25/07z. SFC winds mostly E-SE 8-
18 kts with ocnl gusts to 30 kts. Winds gradually diminishing after
25/12z. Look for an increase in areal coverage of -SHRA/-TSRA Sunday
aftn, especially from KTUS E and S. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms generally from Tucson
eastward and southward through Tuesday. Expect decreasing coverage
of thunderstorms Wednesday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
mainly east to south of Tucson. Dry conditions are forecast to
prevail across much of the area next Thursday and Friday before a
slight increase in moisture Saturday with isolated thunderstorms
returning south and east of Tucson.

Morning southeasterly winds and afternoon northwesterly winds will
be periodically gusty through the Gila River Valley this weekend.
Additionally, any convection which develops will be capable of
producing gusty erratic wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Otherwise,
20-foot winds will then exhibit diurnal trends with speeds mainly
less than 15 mph, although some elevated afternoon gusts may occur
due to strong daytime heating.


 Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>507-509-515.

 Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ514.



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