Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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320
FXUS65 KTWC 112158
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE REMAINS
MAINLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MOVES EWD OUT OF OUR AREA
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD...MAINLY IMPACTING THE PLAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS ON THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
MONDAY...BRINGING A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH IT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL RUNS REGARDING PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK...THE 11/12Z GFS SUGGESTS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 11/12Z ECMWF HINTS
AT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT STILL LEAVES US PRECIP-FREE. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
FUTURE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE UPDATED TO NOTE ANY CHANGES.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY BUT THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
ARE GENERALLY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. INCREASING SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS



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