Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252107
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with a brief warming trend through
Monday. Thereafter, a storm system will pass through the region
later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Scattered valley rain and mountain
snow showers, along with cooler temperatures will accompany this
system. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across the area this afternoon with
temperatures running about 4 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday at
the same time. Expect clear skies to continue tonight into Monday
before increasing as the next storm system drops south along the
California coastline. Models remained consistent in tracking this
system into southern California Tuesday morning then ejecting it
eastward through Arizona Tuesday evening into midday Wednesday.
Strong and gusty winds will develop in advance of this storm as
early as Monday afternoon but more so on Tuesday. The wind will be
strongest Tuesday afternoon through the early evening, especially in
Cochise county where areas of blowing dust will be possible.
Scattered showers will develop Tuesday and spread from west to east
across the area as the storm moves closer. Showers will become more
numerous Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as the system tracks
through the state. The snow level will be above 6000 feet Tuesday
then lower to around 3500 to 4000 feet Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. Storm total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will be
possible above 5500 feet, with locally higher amounts above 8000
feet. Lower elevations down to 3500 to 4000 feet could see an inch
or two briefly late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,
especially in eastern Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Models were
in agreement with this storm exiting the area on Wednesday with a
dry and warmer weather pattern evolving Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 27/00Z.
SKC conditions through the forecast period. SFC winds mainly less
than 12 kts through the forecast period, though a NWLY component
will develop this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through Monday night.
Scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers will over spread the
region from west to east Tuesday. The best chances of precipitation
will occur Tuesday night, with precipitation exiting to the north
and east Wednesday. Dry conditions will then occur into next
weekend. Expect west to southwest 20-ft winds Monday and especially
Tuesday around 15 to 25 mph. The strongest winds will be in Cochise
county Tuesday afternoon and evening. Elevated northwest winds will
then occur on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph through next Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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