Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 200433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE AZ
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAD
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS...SOME THAT WERE HAILERS AND THOSE THAT
PRODUCED STRONG OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOPED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ESPECIALLY NW OF TUCSON UP TO CASA GRANDE. AT THIS TIME THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER WRN PIMA COUNTY AND ALONG/NEAR
THE AZ/NM BORDER. THE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NWRN SONORA MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT PART OF THE FORECAST AND ALSO FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
FEW-BKN CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA/TS. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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