Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 020249
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
750 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS. MOHAVE COUNTY MAY SEE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO SOME VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INSTABILITY IS
LIKELY A RESULT OF STRONG CONVECTION YESTERDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH INDUCED A WESTERLY PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD TONIGHT BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNDER A HIGH CIRRUS DECK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. IVE UPDATED SKY
COVER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
100 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CUMULUS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION
OF SHOWERS/TS THROUGH THE EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WILL
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INYO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW
RH`S. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW-GRADE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SNEAK BACK INTO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT I`VE OPTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE
ARE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WELL
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

INSTEAD...THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW FINALLY SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. BEYOND THIS THINGS BECOME UNCLEAR AS MODELS DIVERGE AND
CONFIDENCE FALLS RAPIDLY. IN ANY CASE IT SEEMS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
CHALLENGE IS NAILING DOWN WHEN THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR WITH
MODELS INDICATING A BROAD WINDOW BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS BETWEEN
22Z AND 00Z. WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. OCCASIONAL
AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR BISHOP.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR
MT TRUMBULL IN MOHAVE COUNTY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COLLOCATION OF DRY FUELS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH. COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS RESULTED IN THE UPGRADE OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR BOTH DAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE DURATION OF THE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE BRIEF AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
EXPANDING THE WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

WOLCOTT

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