Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 011030
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH MOST OF THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO
BE GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY PROLIFIC
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS SHOT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CREATING SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
EXITS THE AREA THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FEATURE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE THIS CONVECTION SHOWS UP IN
THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO
THAT SYNCHRONIZES WITH A VORT LOBE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW UP THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTEHRN SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
KEEP MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION BUT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDS RIGHT OVER NEVADA WITH SOME DRYING AND STABILIZATION
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...TERRAIN BASED PULSE CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH VERY LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ESMERALDA COUNTY WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK AND
PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OVER THOSE ZONES.

AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND FROM
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND
00Z OR 01Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. FOR WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR


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