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694
FXUS65 KVEF 280450
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
950 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively dry weather pattern is expected Friday and Saturday as
chances for showers and storms remain primarily across Mohave
County and Lincoln County. Storm chances increase early next week
as next round of moisture begins pushing across the region on
Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated thunderstorms were persisting over northern
Esmeralda and central Lincoln counties this evening. Individual
cells were generally short lived and radar rainfall estimates were
less than a quarter inch for most cells. The primary driver for the
late evening convection appears to be a short wave trough moving
from central California into Nevada and associated shear and
convergence across south central Nevada. The PoP/WX grids were
adjusted based on the latest radar and satellite trends. The rest of
the forecast area should remain free of convection through the night.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
244 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

For the remainder of the afternoon, showers and storms should
remain isolated across northern Mohave, Lincoln, central Nye, and
the higher elevations of Clark County. Lingering moisture could
support some heavy downpours with these storms along with gusty
winds as forecast soundings indicate significant dry air at the
midlevels. Afternoon activity should dwindle across Clark and
Mohave counties this evening with continued chances for showers
and storms across Lincoln, Esmeralda, and northern Inyo counties
through tonight as a weak circulation progresses northeastward
into central Nevada. The best chance for a couple severe,
discrete cells through tonight will be across Esmeralda County
with 30-35 knots of deep layer shear still present.

Drying pattern continues on Friday with isolated activity confined
to eastern Mohave and northern Lincoln counties. Temps continue to
warm on Friday under prevailing ridge and south to southwesterly
flow. Saturday will be the transition day, ending the drier stretch
as a weak propagating wave treks westward into central Arizona.
Noticable effects in our area will be increased coverage of showers
and storms across Lincoln and Mohave counties as moisture and
instability slowly creep up from the south and east. PWATs will
still be between 1.00-1.25 inches across Mohave County and the
Colorado River valley with meager instability so severe potential
appears to be low with Saturday`s activity. Confidence in
temperatures for Saturday is rather low for northwest Arizona and
Clark County as the edge of a high cloud shield will set up in
this general area and temps right along the the edge where there
will be more breaks in cloud cover will affect temperatures a few
degrees in either direction.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Minor changes and a bit less confidence with the progression of an
inverted trough and the amount of moisture it will be able to bring
back into the area. Latest models are keeping the inverted trough
further south. All in all expect some modest increase in moisture on
Sunday, particularly across eastern San Bernardino and southern
Mohave Counties. The inverted trough pushes off the southern
California coast on Monday afternoon and in its wake a deformation
zone sets up over western Arizona, which will enhance convective
activity on Monday and possibly Tuesday over eastern San Bernardino
and much of Mohave Counties. An area of high pressure will continue
to build over northern Nevada on Wednesday and Thursday. The
forecast challenge will be how much moisture will be trapped under
the ridge and will warming aloft cap thunderstorm activity. At this
point have kept slight chance of thunderstorms across the bulk of
the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures throughout the
period will be at or just below their seasonal norms

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Storms will be possible across Esmeralda and Lincoln counties into
late tonight, diminishing by early Friday morning. Drying pattern
continues through tomorrow with isolated showers and storms
limited to eastern Mohave and northern Lincoln counties. Critical
RH values will be present Friday and Saturday across the western
Mojave Desert, Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye counties but no
significant wind speeds are expected during the afternoon hours.
Moisture levels begin to increase going into Sunday with increasing
chances for showers and storms early next week across much of the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Creeks, streams and rivers in northern Inyo County
have shown decreasing flows over the last couple of days.
However, some road closures continue in the area. Bishop Creek
Bypass and Big Pine Creek Bypass continue to be utilized to
minimize flows through Bishop and Big Pine. Remember, never drive
through flooded roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland
or farmland adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience
areas of standing water.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southeasterly flow this afternoon will
become light and variable tonight before diurnal shift to the
southwest comes late tonight. Similar wind pattern expected on
Friday veering from easterly to southeasterly late morning to
afternoon. Winds should remain around 8 knots or less with the
exception being brief gusty winds associated with an outflow
boundary from higher elevation storms. Chances of this occurring
this afternoon are low.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Mostly diurnal wind pattern is expected at the
terminals through tomorrow. Increasing southwesterly flow is
expected across the western Mojave Desert with sustained winds of
15-20 knots late tonight into early Friday. Showers and storms
will remain isolated across the southern Great Basin and northwest
Arizona this afternoon with continued activity possible into the
overnight hours across Esmeralda and Lincoln counties. Friday
should be slightly drier than today with showers and storms
confined to northern Lincoln and eastern Mohave counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Guillet
LONG TERM....Czyzyk

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