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000
FXUS65 KVEF 310503
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING DRY AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER LAS
VEGAS LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCLE
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP DEVELOPMENT
AT BAY IN MOST LOCATION. HAVE REDUCED WORDING TO PATCHY FOG WITH
THIS UPDATE. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO POP/QPF/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...RAIN CHANCES AND LOW CEILINGS (3-5K FEET)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON. CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT APPEAR
TO BE MINIMAL...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. WINDS COULD VARY IN DIRECTION
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO
AROUND 20KTS SATURDAY...CAUSING RUNWAY CONFIGURATION CHALLENGES.
MUCH BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RAIN CHANCES...LOWER CEILINGS...AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MUCH BETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAD BEGUN
TO BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE NOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE...SO WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT BUT LOWERED THE
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW WILL SUPPRESS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLOUDS DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN AREAS WHICH GOT SIGNIFICANT RAIN TODAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE
AN ISSUE SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DID
NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME BUT NIGHT CREW WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN WILL PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
LOWER LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND SUNDAY MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIER AIR WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT
LOOK TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH READINGS BY WEEKS END CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OR SNOW.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/GORELOW

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