Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 191437
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
737 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
AREA AND INTO ESMERALDA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN
SOME HAZE/SMOKE INTO THE AREA. AREA WEBCAMS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3-4 MILES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE
MOMENT...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

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