Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 260315
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
815 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED
TO THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE ABYSS OF RADAR COVERAGE TO SOME
EXTENT, A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ESMERALDA COUNTY. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS STILL COOLING IN SOME AREAS OF
ESMERALDA COUNTY AND QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING BEING PRODUCED SO POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA FROM HIGHWAY 95 ON EAST ACROSS
ESMERALDA, NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY GO
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY SO POPS WERE
RAISED THERE AS WELL FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD ALSO FILL IN THE SKY ACROSS NORTHEAST
CLARK COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL AS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
SO CLOUD COVER WAS RAISED THERE AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS
ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS INTO BETTER RADAR RANGE. GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH, SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS CAUSING MINOR FLOODING WILL ALL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS AREA WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 300 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH ARIZONA AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA. SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TO THE SIERRA...
ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
THURSDAY ITS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EACH DAY AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL ALSO DECREASE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
BRING A LONG AWAITED RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE MAY THAN OBSERVED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS ARE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE ITS PRETTY
CERTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
PRETTY LIGHT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES BUT WITH STRONGER WINDS FORECAST
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...ENHANCED
MIXING SHOULD MAKE SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION LOOK TO BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN DEPARTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY AND FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
A LIGHT SPRINKLE MCCARRAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TURN MORE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 8KTS
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...CENTRAL
NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
ZONES TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS...BUT COULD BE GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...OUTLER

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