946
FXUS65 KVEF 140912
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
212 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures will continue through the first part of
  the week, with the warmest readings expected today.

* Monsoonal moisture will return to the region during the second
  half of the week, bringing increased chances for afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Temperatures will peak across the region today with afternoon highs
averaging 5 to 8 degrees above normal.  Widespread Moderate (Level 2
of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk will be seen across the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert this afternoon. The Extreme
Heat Warning remains in effect for Death Valley National Park, Clark
County, and the Lake Mead National Recreation Area through this
evening, along with the Heat Advisory for the southern Great Basin.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, with HeatRisk
values falling into the Minor to Moderate levels in most areas. In
addition to above normal temperatures early in the week, much of the
region will continue to experience hazy skies as smoke from area
wildfires remains trapped under the ridge of high pressure
responsible for the heat.


By mid-week, the ridge of high pressure will weaken as a shortwave
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, a weak
cut-off area of low pressure will develop off Baja California, which
will help to transport increased moisture into the region by the
second half of the week.  There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
about how much moisture will make it into the area. Still isolated
thunderstorms will be possible starting on Wednesday across Mohave
County, and then possibly moving into the Las Vegas area Thursday
and Friday.  This increased moisture, along with lower 500mb
heights, will also allow temperatures to fall to near or even
slightly below normal levels by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds favoring southwest directions will prevail through the
remainder of the night. The diurnal trend continues through
tomorrow, including breezy southwesterly winds tomorrow evening with
moderate gusts to around 15 knots. Isolated virga showers cannot be
ruled out in the Peach Springs corridor this evening. Smoke from
area wildfires will remain aloft through the TAF period.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18Z and 06Z, peaking
around 112 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds continue to follow
diurnal directional trends with sustained speeds of 12 knots or
less. Breezy westerly winds will continue across the western Mojave
Desert into the overnight hours. Slantwise visibility will continue
to be impacted by wildfire smoke aloft, but visibility restrictions
at the surface are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A short wave moving through the Great Basin will
bring elevated winds to the southern Great Basin on Tuesday.  This,
along with afternoon relative humidity values of 7 to 14 percent,
will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions across
Nevada Fire Weather Zone 461, and a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Tuesday in that area.  While winds will still be breezy
on Wednesday, increasing moisture levels will result in RH values of
10 to 20 percent, which will help to mitigate fire risk.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Outler
FIRE WEATHER...Planz

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