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000
FXXX12 KWNP 161230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained low (below R1-minor). C-class activity was
observed in three of the nine spotted regions. Region 1998 (S07W72,
Axx/alpha) produced a pair of C1 events at 15/1437 UTC and 16/0604 UTC.
Region 2003 (N05W84, Dao/beta) produced a C6/Sf at 15/1715 UTC followed
by a C7/Sf at 16/0645 UTC. Some decay was observed in the southern
portion of the region. Region 2005 (N13E24, Cho/beta) produced a C2/Sf
at 16/0813 UTC. Overall growth in area was observed with new spots
forming in the northern portion of the region. New Region 2009 (N14E05,
Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk. The largest region on the disk, Region
2002 (S18W37, Ekc/beta-gamma) was quiet with some spot decay noted. All
other regions were quiet and stable. A 30 degree long filament eruption
was observed in the SE quadrant of the disk between 16/0235 - 0323 UTC
centered near S22E50. An associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery lifting off the E-SE limb beginning at 16/0348 UTC. Plane-of-sky
speed was estimated at 554 km/s. Analysis is ongoing on the potential
geoeffectiveness of this CME.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is still likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) during the forecast period (16-18 Mar), with a slight
chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong). The most significant regions
are either decaying (2002) or rotating around the west limb (2003),
consequently the flare probabilities were decreased slightly. This
decrease was tempered by new flux emergence in the NE quadrant, thus
keeping the (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) threat above 50% for now.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels during the forecast period (16-18 Mar). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(16-18 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak of 423 km/s at
15/1232 UTC and slowly declined to end-of-period speeds approaching 350
km/s. Total IMF remained below 5 nT. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1832 UTC. Phi angle was in a predominately
positive (away) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase during the period (16-18 Mar)
as northern and southern hemisphere coronal hole high speed streams (CH
HSS) move into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Model output from WSA and WSA-Enlil suggest a negative polarity CH HSS
will begin to interact with Earth on day one (16 Mar). Interactions with
it and a northern, positive polarity CH HSS later in the period will
bring quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions through day three (18 Mar).