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FXXX12 KWNP 271230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered Region 2222
(S22E59, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1f at 27/0047 UTC, and eight others.  This was one of two currently
numbered regions that exhibited any growth during the period.  The other
growing region was 2219 (N03W21, Dai/beta-gamma), which produced no
significant X-ray activity.  New region development was being monitored
in the southeast near S29E56 and in the north near N17W06.  The region
in the southeast appears to have been responsible for a C4 flare at
27/1020 UTC.  The remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or

An approximately 15 degree filament was observed via GONG
H-Alpha as it lifted from the NW quadrant of the solar visible disk
between 26/1600 and 26/1900 UTC. The eruption was first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 26/1936 UTC.  Initial
imagery suggest this eruption was narrow, and not Earth-directed.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (27-29
Nov), particularly from Region 2222 based on its development over the
past 12 hours.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (27-29 Nov). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the
forecast period (27-29 Nov).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The anticipated solar sector boundary change and subsequent onset of a
high speed stream reached the ACE spacecraft at 27/0241 UTC.  Phi became
negative while temperature and solar wind speed began to rise,
approaching 400 km/s at the time of this analysis.  Bt and Bz both began
to rise following the sector change, with Bt slightly over 10 nT and Bz
neutral to mostly positive.

High speed solar wind stream conditions are expected to persist at the
ACE spacecraft through the forecast period (27-29 Nov), with wind speed
perhaps reaching 500 km/s.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A single
unsettled period was observed between 27/03-06 UTC in response to the
solar sector boundary crossing and high speed stream onset.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first
two days of the forecast period, (27-28 Nov).  Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for day three (29 Nov) as the high speed stream
begins to abate. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.