Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Only low level B-class activity was
observed during the period. Region 2541 (N04E14, Bxi/beta) lost all
penumbra surrounding its spots. All other regions remained stable or
were in minor decay. No Earth-directed CME signatures were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares for the next three days (07-09 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased sharply in conjunction
with the CIR but recovered quickly and reached high levels, with a
maximum flux of 4,010 pfu at 06/1405 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to redistribute due to
interaction with an anticipated CH HSS on day one (07 May), likely
decreasing flux levels to normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to the onset of a CIR and
subsequent positive polarity CH HSS. Total field continued to increase
from 9 nT at the beginning of the period to 12 nT at the end of the
period. The Bz component was variable, with a maximum deflection of
-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 400-425 km/s through most of the
period with a peak near 480 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in a
negative (towards) sector until 06/1805 UTC when it changed to a
positive (away) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under the
influence of the CIR followed by a positive polarity CH HSS on day one
(07 May). After a brief lull, a second CIR followed by a negative
polarity CH HSS is expected to move into geoeffective position late on
day two (08 May) and persist into day three (09 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the first half of the day.
Unsettled to G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels were observed following
the arrival of the CIR and subsequent positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast..
The geomagnetic field is expected continue at unsettled to G1-Minor
storm levels on day one (07 May) as effects of the positive polarity CH
HSS continue. After a brief decrease in activity, a second CIR followed
by a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into geoeffective
position late on day two (08 May). Active conditions are expected with
minor storms likely on day three (09 May) as CH HSS effects persist.


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