Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. Region 2192 (S15E01, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an X1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 22/1428 UTC with an associated
200 sfu Tenflare. Careful analysis of SDO and SOHO/LASCO imagery
suggested that there was not a CME associated with this event.

An M1/1f (R1-minor) flare was later observed from Region 2192 at 23/0950
UTC.  The region continued to grow and SDO magnetogram imagery indicated
pulsating positive flux within the large trailer spot cluster.

An M1 flare was also observed at 22/1557 UTC off the southeast limb
associated with a Bright Surge on the Limb (BSL) and a Type II radio
sweep (1469 km/s). The CME, visible at 22/1612 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery is well off the Sun-Earth line and is not expected to be
geoeffective.  A second CME from this location was observed at 22/2136
UTC in C2 imagery.

A third CME was observed in C2 imagery at 22/1736 UTC erupting from the
south.  This event appeared to be correlated with a narrow plume of
material ejected from the southern portion of Region 2192 beginning
around 22/1600 UTC as seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.  This event is also
not expected to be geoeffective.

New Region 2195 (N07E66, Dso/beta) was numbered as it rotated onto
the northeast limb.  Consolidation of the leader spots was observed
within Region 2193 (N06W38, Dao), which also developed a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.  The remaining regions were stable or decaying.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are expected with R3 (Strong) activity
likely over the next three days (23-25 Oct) due to an increase in
magnetic complexity within Region 2192.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high, reaching 11,815
pfu at 22/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (23-25 Oct). There is a chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) for
the next three days (23-25 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into an
increasingly threatening position on the solar disk.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflected relatively nominal
conditions over the past 24 hours.  Wind speed remained mostly in the
450-500 km/s range.  Phi remained positive, while Bt remained at or
below 6 nT and Bz remained above -5 nT.

.Forecast...
A second equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to be reflected at ACE over the next three days (23-25 Oct) if
it is well connected.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels, with a slight chance for a minor storm period, for days one
and two (23-24 Oct) with the onset of the equatorial stream.  Conditions
are expected to diminish to quiet to unsettled levels by day 3 (25 Oct).



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