Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period
(20-22 Nov).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 1,480 pfu at 19/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20-21 Nov. Moderate to high levels are expected on 22
Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected ambient conditions. Wind speed was
steady, ranging between 340 and 360 km/s. Total field (Bt) peaked at 4
nT while the Bz component did not drop lower than -2 nT. Phi angle was
negative until approximately 19/2330 UTC when it became variable,
switching between both positive and negative sectors until the end of
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one
(20 Nov) as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. CH HSS
influence is expected to persist on day two (21 Nov) and gradually wane
by day three (22 Nov).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under ambient solar wind conditions.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels until late
on day one (20 Nov) when an increase to active conditions is expected
due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active
conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, are expected on
day two (21 Nov) as CH HSS influence continues. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on day three (22 Nov) as CH HSS effects begin to
taper.


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