Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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718
FXXX12 KWNP 291230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only B-class flares occurring during
the period. Region 2644 (N12W02, Esi/beta) exhibited separation between
the leader and trailer spots and grew slightly in length, but simplified
magnetically to a beta group. Region 2645 (S09E36, Dai/beta)
continued to grow slightly in area, as well as gaining a few more
intermediate spots, but remained fairly inactive during the period.
Region 2646 (N07W74, plage) decayed to an area of enhanced plage.

A narrow CME was observed in LASCO imagery off the west-southwest limb.
Analysis concluded that this CME should miss the Earth and not have an
impact. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely,
and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) the next
two days (29-30 Mar) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities
of Regions 2644 and 2645. Solar activity is expected to be very low,
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares
on day three (31 Mar).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at predominantly high levels
with a maximum flux of 14,903 pfu at 28/1605 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mostly
high levels all three days (29-31 Mar), with a chance for very high
levels by day three (31 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three
days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Total field
strength remained steady near 5 nT during the period. The Bz component
varied between +/- 5 nT, until the end of the period when it moved into
a positive orientation. Solar wind speed remained fairly consistent
between 650-700 km/s, and the phi angle was negative (towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (29-31 Mar) as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS
persist.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active,
with an isolated period of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming likely on day
one (29 Mar) due to continued CH HSS effects. Day two (30 Mar) is
expected to be unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1
(Minor) storming likely as CH HSS influences persist. The geomagnetic
field on day three (31 Mar) is expected to be predominantly unsettled to
active, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, as CH HSS effects
continue.



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