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000
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2292 (S08W70, Cai/beta)
was the most active region, producing a couple of low level C-class
flares during the period. Region 2293 (N05W38, Dao/beta) remained quiet
and mostly stable. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were
observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight chance
for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one and two
(05-06 Mar). Very low to low levels are forecast for day three (07 Mar)
after the departure of Region 2292.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today,
due to elevated solar wind velocities. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to moderate
levels for days one through three (05-07 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over the next
three days (05-07 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected a
return to ambient conditions following the waning effects of a negative
polarity CH. Phi transitioned multiple times between positive (away) and
negative (toward) orientations. Solar wind velocities averaged near 480
km/s for the period. IMF total field ranged from 2 nT to 5 nT, while Bz
fluctuated between +/-4
nT.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly disturbed,
with nominal velocities and Bt, for days one and two (05-06 Mar) from
continued influences of multiple solar sector transitions. Days three
should see a definitive Phi transition to a positive (away) orientation,
prior to the onset of an anticipated positive polarity high speed steam
expected to be realized just beyond the forecast period.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the
period (05-07 Mar), as the result of solar sector transitions.