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FXXX12 KWNP 040031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period.  Region 2378
(S17E56, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC
which was the largest event of the period.  Region 2378 underwent minor
development this period.  Region 2376 (N12E16, Eao/beta) underwent minor
penumbral growth this period but appeared to simplify magnetically.  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (04-06 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 5,790 pfu observed at 03/1545 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux returned to background levels this period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on days one and two (04-05 Jul) due to the onset of a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  A return to
moderate to high flux levels are expected by day three (06 Jul) due to
CH HSS effects.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 350 km/s to
end-of-period values near 300 km/s.  IMF total field values were steady
near 2-4 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period.  The phi
angle transitioned from a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector
orientation to a negative (toward the Sun) sector orientation at around
03/1830 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one
(04 Jul) through day two (05 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR preceding
the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.  This coronal hole produced
solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s last rotation, but our proximity
to the summer solstice suggests that this feature will be less impactful
this rotation.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period under an
ambient solar wind environment.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR late in the day.  A recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective midday on
day two (05 Jul) prompting geomagnetic field activity to increase to
active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.  Field conditions are
likely to decrease to quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jul) as CH
HSS influence begins to subside. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.