Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C3/Sf at
30/2132 UTC from Region 2173 (N11E31, Eai/beta-gamma). While several
complex regions remain on the solar disk, as well as multiple filaments,
no significant activity occurred during the period and there were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are expected with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) over the next three days (30 Sep
- 02 Oct). Regions 2172, 2173 and 2175 are the most likely sources for
significant flare production.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A slight but increasing chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) is forecast for the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct) with
Regions 2172, 2173, and 2175 the most likely sources. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate
to high levels for the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated a solar wind
speed near 360 km/s. The total IMF Bt remained around 6-7 nT while the
Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle remained oriented in a
positive (away) sector for the majority of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a continued agitated state
over the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct), due to coronal hole effects
and multiple solar sector changes.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to intermittent
periods of extended southward Bz.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active
periods all three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct) due to the influence from
coronal hole high speed streams as well as solar sector changes.



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