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FXXX12 KWNP 260031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels again this period.  Region 2192
(S12W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration X1/3b flare (R3
radio blackout) at 25/1708 UTC, and a handful of C-class events.  No
corresponding Type II or IV signatures were observed with the X flare,
nor has any CME emerged in coronagraph imagery.  New flux emergence was
noted in the northwest and southeast portion of the region as it grew
slightly since yesterday.

The remaining regions on the disk were generally stable.

The new flux emergence and growth means Region 2192 is expected to keep
activity at moderate (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) levels with a continued
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three
days (26-28 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
reaching a maximum value of 1970 pfu at 25/1325 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels over the next two days (26-27 Oct), declining to normal to
moderate levels on day three (28 Oct).  There is a chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm level over the next three days (26-28 Oct) as Region 2192
continues to rotate toward the west limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at ACE was nominal.  Wind speed remained in
the low 400 to upper 300 km/s range.  Phi was mostly positive, but
occasionally variable.  Bt remained below 7 nT while Bz, although mostly
negative, remained at or above -6 nT.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal for the next three days
(26-28 Oct), punctuated by an anticipated solar sector boundary change
on 27 Oct from positive to negative.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Prolonged
modest southward Bz drove the field to active to minor storm levels at
high latitudes.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected on days one
and three (26, 28 Oct) interrupted by unsettled to active levels on day
two (27 Oct) in response to the anticipated solar sector boundary
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