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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a
C4/Sf flare at 29/1633 UTC from Region 2130 (S08E63, Dkc/beta-gamma).
Regions 2125 (S14E23, Hax/alpha) and 2127 (S09E43, Dkc/beta-delta) also
produced low level C-class events during the period. Region 2127
continued to grow in spot count and areal coverage. Region 2126 (S09W33,
Dsc/beta-gamma) showed growth and consolidation in both its leader and
trailer spots but remained relatively quiet. A 31 degree filament
eruption centered near N08E32 was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning
around 30/0400 UTC. A CME was evident in STEREO imagery and further
analysis will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery comes in to determine
if it is expected to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (30 Jul-01 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were nominal. Solar wind speeds ranged between
near 270 km/s and 360 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT with
the Bz component between +4 and -5 nT. Phi angle was predominately
negative (towards) with only short periods in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for the rest
of forecast period (30 Jul-01 Aug).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period from
30/0000-0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet (Below G1-Minor)
for the forecast period (30 Jul-01 Aug).