Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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455
FXXX12 KWNP 170032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2625 (N01E18, Hsx/alpha)
briefly developed some small spots behind the leader spots but they
quickly decayed. Region 2626 (N08E29, Hax/alpha) was stable during
the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class activity, all three days (17-19 Jan).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 3,090 pfu observed at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels on day one (17 Jan), decreasing to normal to moderate
levels on days two and three (18-19 Jan) due to electron redistribution
as a result of CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
nominal environment. Total field strength ranged between 3-5 nT while
the Bz component ranged from +/- 2 nT. Solar wind speeds were slow,
averaging around 330 km/s decreasing to near 300 km/s by the end of the
period. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
majority of day one (17 Jan). Late on 17 Jan, an enhancement in wind
parameters is likely due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance
of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. By day two (18 Jan), a
further enhancement to near 650 km/s (speeds based on STEREO PLASTIC
data) is likely due to CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to remain
enhanced through day three (19 Jan).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet at the start of the
period, increasing to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one (17 Jan)
due to initial CIR effects in advance of a CH HSS. A further increase in
field conditions to active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) is likely on
day two (18 Jan) due to continued CIR effects and the onset of a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected to continue into day three (19 Jan), with
G1-Minor storms likely early in the day as CH HSS effects persist.



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