Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service TULSA OK
210 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Significant improvement in drought conditions across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...

Synopsis...

Drought conditions improved significantly since last month due to
very heavy rain at the end of April and the beginning of May.
However, moderate drought conditions continued over a small
portion of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ valid May 9, 2017,
Moderate /D1/ Drought conditions cover portions of southwest
Pittsburg, far eastern Haskell, far northeast Latimer, and
northwest Le Flore Counties in eastern Oklahoma and southern
Franklin County in northwest Arkansas.

Abnormally Dry /D0/ but not experiencing drought conditions exist
over portions of Pittsburg, Latimer, Pushmataha, Choctaw, and Le
Flore Counties in eastern Oklahoma and Sebastian, Crawford, and
Franklin Counties in northwest Arkansas.

The USDM is a collaborative effort between several government and
academic partners. It is a weekly national product issued on
Thursday morning using data collected through the previous Tuesday
morning, so it does not consider precipitation which has fallen
after the data cut-off time.

There are five levels of intensity depicted on the USDM. The USDM
levels are the following: D0 - Abnormally Dry (not in drought but
showing dryness) D1 - Moderate Drought D2 - Severe Drought D3 -
Extreme Drought D4 - Exceptional Drought

The local Drought Information Statement is issued by the NWS
office in Tulsa when needed to supplement the national USDM
product. Local statements may be issued by-weekly during times
when the USDM indicates severe drought conditions or as local
conditions warrant.


Summary of Impacts...

State and Local Actions:
The Oklahoma State Climate Office (Oklahoma Climatological
Survey, OCS) hosts recorded briefings focused on the current
conditions, impacts, and outlooks for drought conditions across
the Southern Plains. Updated drought briefings are available at
www.youtube.com/user/SCIPP01

Soil Moisture Impact:
The OCS daily averaged fractional water index for May 11, 2017
shows values of 0.6 to 0.8 (where 1.0 is saturated and 0.0 is
completely dry) at 2 and 4 inches below ground in portions of
southeast OK, with 0.8 to 1.0 values at 10 and 24 inches below
ground across all of eastern Oklahoma.

As of May 12, 2017, the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
(ABRFC) gridded soil moisture indicates that the upper zone, which
responds to short term rainfall, is 20 percent to greater than 40
percent full across the D0-D1 area of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. This represents slightly agriculturally dry to
neutral conditions and corresponds to 70 to 110 percent of
normal. The lower zone was primarily greater than 40 percent full
across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas except for
western Choctaw County, where the soil was 20 to 40 percent full.
This represents slight hydrologically dry to neutral conditions in
western Choctaw County. These lower zone anomalies were 30 to 110
percent of normal across much of southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas, with the 30 to 90 percent of normal values
primarily in the D0-D1 area.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calculated soil moisture
anomaly analysis as of May 11, 2017 showed soil moisture was
20-80 mm (0.79-3.1 inches) below normal across southeast Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas.

Fire Impacts:
No burn bans are in effect.


Climate Summary...

Over the past 7 days, 0.10 to near 1 inch of rain has fallen
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with higher
totals of 1 to 5 inches over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.

In the last 30 days, rainfall totals have ranged from 10 to 20
inches north of I-40 and 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 to 10
inches south of I-40. This corresponds to 50 to 100 percent of
normal for much of the area south of a McAlester to Fort Smith
line.

According to OCS, for the last 30 days ending May 11, 2017,
northeast Oklahoma ranks as the record wettest period since
records began in 1921. East central Oklahoma ranks as the 5th
wettest and southeast Oklahoma ranks as the 48th driest. Since
the beginning of the Water Year (October 1, 2016), northeast
Oklahoma ranks as the 11th wettest, east central Oklahoma ranks
as the 41st driest, and southeast Oklahoma ranks as the 18th
driest.


Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

For the upcoming week, rain chances will return Tuesday evening
and continue through the end of next week. Temperatures for the
next 7 days will be near to above normal for this time of year.

The CPC 8-14 Day Outlook calls for an increased chance for above
normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Beyond this period, the CPC outlook for May 2017 (issued April 30,
2017) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for below normal
temperatures across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and
equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures over
southeast Oklahoma. This outlook also calls for equal chances for
above, near, and below median rainfall across all of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.


Hydrologic Summary And Outlook...

According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), all of the
area reservoirs were within their flood pool as of May 12, 2017.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the 7-day average
streamflow was near to much above normal across most of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as of May 11, 2017. Below normal
conditions were occurring along the Fourche Maline near Red Oak
and the Red River near Arthur City.


Next Issuance Date...

This is the last issuance of the Drought Information Statement.
These statements will resume when D2 Severe Drought conditions
return to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.


Related Websites...

U.S. Drought Portal
http://www.drought.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

National Weather Service Tulsa
http://www.weather.gov/tulsa/drought_info
http://www.weather.gov/tulsa

Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
http://www.weather.gov/abrfc/DROUGHT

Oklahoma Climatological Survey Drought Tools
http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/climate/category/drought_wildfire

Arkansas Forestry Commission
http://www.forestry.state.ar.us

Oklahoma Forestry Commission
http://www.forestry.ok.gov

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Tulsa District
http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil

U.S. Geological Survey Realtime Data
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Acknowledgments...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a collaborative effort between
several government and academic partners including the NWS, the
National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, state and regional
climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, the USACE
and the USGS.

Questions or Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought
information statement, please contact,

National Weather Service Tulsa
10159 E. 11th St. Suite 300
Tulsa Oklahoma 74128
Phone:   918-838-7838
Email:   sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$


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