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FNUS28 KWNS 132135
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 151200Z - 211200Z

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST. THROUGH MID-WEEK...THIS RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD...AS A RELATIVELY SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...THE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...REACHING THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...RELATIVELY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.

...D3/MON -- SOUTHERN CA...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO START THE
WEEK...AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
NELY FLOW. SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT THE START OF
D3/MON WHEN THE GRADIENT MAXIMIZES...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20-30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES. WHILE
SOME OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL OCCUR...RH VALUES WILL BE QUICK TO FALL
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES...AND AT LEAST ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. IN TURN...NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE
ONGOING 40-PERCENT AREA. THEREAFTER...THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO D4/TUE AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

...D6/THU -- SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS IMPULSE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
DESERT SW TO THE MIDWEST. AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING WILL
FAVOR A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...STRONG/GUSTY SWLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON D6/THU. IN
CONCERT WITH THESE WINDS...A VERY DRY AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PW
VALUES AROUND 0.15-0.3 INCHES/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A BROAD CORRIDOR OF RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT...GENERALLY
FROM EASTERN NM TO SOUTHWESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...FUELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD...AS LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS
CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT FOR THE DESCRIBED SCENARIO...SUCH THAT A
70-PERCENT CRITICAL AREA IS INTRODUCED. THE PREVIOUS 40-PERCENT AREA
IS ALSO EXPANDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO REFLECT
THIS INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF D6/THU...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT/TIGHTER SFC GRADIENTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DISPLACED FROM
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. THEREFORE...NO OTHER AREAS ARE INTRODUCED.

..PICCA.. 02/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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