Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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263
FNUS28 KWNS 182025
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

A vigorous mid-level trough, initially over the Desert Southwest on
D3/Sat, will migrate eastward and reach the central Plains late
D4/Sun.  As a result of the ejecting trough, surface cyclogenesis
will commence across the eastern Colorado Plains, with this low
migrating slowly northeastward into Kansas and the mid-Missouri
Valley area on D5/Mon.  Fire weather concerns will increase D3/Sat
and D4/Sun and will be confined to the dry sector of this surface
low in portions of the southern Plains.

...D3/Sat and D4/Sun - Southern Great Plains...
Breezy to windy conditions will develop on the southern periphery of
the aforementioned, slow-moving surface low throughout the period.
Downslope flow and insolation will result in a gradually warming and
drying airmass across the region, with at least near-critical RH
values occurring each day.  Stronger surface winds will occur D4/Sun
afternoon as stronger mid-level flow (attendant to the approaching
mid-level trough) overspreads the region, with widespread
near-critical conditions becoming likely.  40% delineations have
been made where these heightened fire weather conditions will exist.
Additionally, a 70%/critical area has been added on D4/Sun in
portions of west Texas where greater confidence exists in strong
surface flow and critically low RH.  Elevated fire weather
conditions will become less likely on D5/Mon as the surface low and
trough migrate away from the region.

..Cook.. 01/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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