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FNUS28 KWNS 242055
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 021200Z

UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD -- 12Z/MON --
WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND ITS BASE...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA. NRN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD/SEWD WHILE BECOMING MORE ELONGATED...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING
INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
SRN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD ON D4/TUE BEFORE DEVOLVING INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON D5/WED AND
CNTRL ROCKIES ON D6/THU. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXIST BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES FROM D3/MON THROUGH D5/WED BEFORE SHIFTING EWD OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH PACIFIC NW/NRN CA ON D7/FRI. PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA ON
D3/MON AND D4/TUE.

...D3/MON-D4/TUE: SOUTHERN CA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH GOOD MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EARLY D3/WED MORNING. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING
THE DAY BUT THE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS
BREEZY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN D3/MON NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT NOCTURNALLY INCREASES BUT HIGHER RH VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
SOMEWHAT. WEAKENING WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS D4/TUE MORNING.

..MOSIER.. 09/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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