Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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409
FNUS74 KAMA 241302
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR RANKIN RANCH ROAD FIRE...Texas A&M Forest Service
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
802 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0800 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A High Wind Warning
is out for the fire site which will go into affect at 10 AM and
continue until 8 PM. The south winds of 20 mph with gusts of
35 mph are expected to quickly shift out of the southwest
within the first two hours of this forecast period. Winds will
be on a steady increase through the morning hours with wind
gusts reaching 40 just before noon. After the noon time hour
we will see another wind shift at the fire site out of the
northwest. Winds will increase further with gusts increasing
to near 60 mph. These strong northwesterly winds will continue
until 8 PM this evening. With cooler air filtering into the
fire site, we expect the minimum relative humidity to remain
above 30 percent. There is a very small chance for light showers
at the fire site with the wind shift which could cause erratic
wind gusts.

Winds drop off greatly after midnight and will remain light through
midday tomorrow.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (22000-52800 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent to excellent (83300-124800
                    knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 26 to 33 mph decreasing to around 23
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the northwest 24 to 30 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000-2000 ft AGL increasing to 4000-5000 ft
                    AGL.
20-foot winds.......Windy. Southwest winds 16 to 25 mph with gusts
                    to around 40 mph shifting to the northwest 26
                    to 33 mph with gusts to around 60 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 OR low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............49     54     59     60     62
RH..............49     42     36     35     33
20 Ft Wind......S 20   SW 22  SW 25  NW 30  N 33
20 Ft Wind Gust.30     35     40     45     60
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20
Haines Index....4      4      4      3      3
VentR KtFt/1000.53     120    108    104    113

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent to excellent (89000-155000 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to good to excellent (45200-72800
                    knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
LAL.................1.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Transport winds.....North 28 to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......3000-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 2000-2500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
20-foot winds.......Windy. North winds 25 to 33 mph with gusts to
                    around 60 mph becoming northwest 14 to 22 mph
                    with gusts to around 35 mph in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Haines Index........3 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....S CHC
Weather Type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............61     53     48     45     42     40
RH..............36     48     56     62     69     73
20 Ft Wind......N 33   N 29   N 22   NW 20  NW 17  NW 15
20 Ft Wind Gust.60     45     35     30     25     25
Chc of Pcpn (%).20     0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....3      2      2      2      2      2
VentR KtFt/1000.144    124    73     73     71     65

.SATURDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (25700-53200 knot-ft).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 25 mph decreasing to 7 to 15
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500-3000 ft AGL increasing to 3500-5000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............38     37     47     58     67     70
RH..............77     79     53     36     26     22
20 Ft Wind......NW 14  NW 14  NW 14  NW 13  NW 10  NW 8
20 Ft Wind Gust.20     20     20     20     15     10
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....2      4      4      4      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.48     32     36     49     53     45

$$
Forecaster...Morris
Requested by...MPETERS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1705071.1/AMA



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