Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 112031
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH ROSITA RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
231 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1420 CST ON FEBRUARY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT THE BURN SITE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN A SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE NEAR THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER SUNSET THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. A DRY
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE AROUND 6 A.M. CST
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL TO REACH AN
EAST DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (0-10
                    PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-2500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2 TO
                    5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............65  64  63  62
RH..............22  22  23  24
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   3   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.    5       10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  53  49  46  44  43  41  39  37  36  35  34
RH..............26  33  39  43  48  54  61  65  68  72  73  76
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............33  32  33  38  45  50  55  59  62  63  63  62
RH..............77  81  80  66  53  44  37  32  29  27  27  30
20 FT WIND DIR..W   NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...MORRIS
REQUESTED BY...TODD WOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160211.SOUTH.02/AMA



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