Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 21 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26

...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The large scale pattern is being driven by an upper level ridge over
Texas with a pair of potent upper level storm systems, one over the
Great Lakes and the other over Nevada.  The latter "Nevada" storm
should slowly lift northeast toward the Northern Rockies, with the
"Great Lakes" storm moving steadily east.  This combination should
push a cold front through Texas.  However, this front will not have
enough push to clear the WGRFC area, with a mostly easterly flow
expected Monday.  If anything, this will enhance the large scale lift
over New Mexico and West Texas, resulting in more rainfall.

Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of normal,
courtesy of remnant Pacific moisture from the last few E. Pacific
tropical systems and low level moisture riding up the Rio Grande from
the Gulf of Mexico.  With no large scale pattern changes in the short
term, more rainfall is expected for the western portions of the WGRFC
area through Monday.

The upper level ridge over the area build west as the week
progresses.  This should help inhibit some of the areal coverage of
the area of precipitation.  However, rain chances will remain in the
forecast for the WGRFC through mid week, with the exception of
Northeast and East Texas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for Southeast New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for the remainder of New
Mexico and for Northern Mexico across from Deep South Texas.  Lighter
MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the western half of
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for Southeast New Mexico.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and for West Texas.
Lighter MAP amounts are expected for South and Southeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for the western half of the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for West Texas and for Deep South Texas.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as well
as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days.  Runoff leading to
significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in
addition to flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  No
significant runoff is expected over the eastern portions of Texas for
the forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential
flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande
at Presidio.  Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido
downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) and at the weir
(PRDT2).  Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little
change.  No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for
the next five days.  WGRFC will continue to monitor  the Rio Grande
river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
...Bankfull and above...
The large flows in the tributaries above Brantley Reservoir continue to
recede.  Brantley reservoir has adequate storage available such that it
will not be making releases to contribute to existing downstream
flooding.  Downstream, the current level in Lake Avalon is near
conservation pool and continues to rise however no significant spillway
flows are expected. Red Bluff reservoir continues to rise.  There is
the possibility that discharges from Red Bluff reservoir could
contribute to the existing overbank flow conditions between Red Bluff
reservoir and Pecos. Stage/flow data for that section of the Pecos
River is limited.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states
nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas
basins.  These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see
precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast
displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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