Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 081709
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
VALID MARCH 8 THROUGH MARCH 13
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE WGRFC
The weak ridge of high pressure which covered much of Texas the past
two days is well east of the region this morning. The changes which
are occurring for this weekend will lead to a chance for
precipitation. A fairly strong upper level disturbance is located
over Colorado and northern New Mexico this morning. This low
brought snow to the higher elevations of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado the past 24 hours, with snow water equivalent
amounts in excess of one inch observed in spots. This upper low
will split later today, with one disturbance moving eastward across
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, with the other closing off
over the Arizona/Mexico border. The Oklahoma disturbance will assist
in generating shower activity over roughly the southeastern half of
Texas this afternoon, with the rainfall becoming more limited to
southeast Texas by noon Sunday as the disturbances passes.
The second upper low will dig southward into northern Mexico Sunday,
then move eastward toward south Texas by late Monday. Well out ahead
of this low, moisture will increase over south Texas which will
cause the rainfall to increase starting tonight. This slow
moving system is expected to produce the most widespread
precipitation initially from San Antonio to north of Brownsville,
but as this system approaches the focus of heavier rainfall will
drift up the middle Texas Gulf coast Sunday and Monday. Then as the
low moves along the southeast Texas coast on Tuesday morning it
should push the remaining precipitation eastward from extreme
southeast Texas into Louisiana. The low will finally exit the
region by Tuesday afternoon and the rain will end.
There will be a return to zonal flow and drier conditions as the
system exits the area to the east Tuesday evening into Wednesday and
Thursday morning. Forecast models indicate the potential for
additional precipitation over Colorado and northern New Mexico
during the middle of next week as another upper air disturbance
forms over this region. But most of the WGRFC area will have dry
conditions from Wednesday into Thursday.
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast from northeast Texas
southward through central Texas into deep south Texas. The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over south Texas
just south of San Antonio, and from near Hebronville to south of
Corpus Christi TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over most of the remaining WGRFC area of responsibility.
For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for much of south Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over the middle and lower Texas
Gulf coast from near Cuero to Corpus Christi TX and along Padre
Island. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
the southern two thirds of Texas and most of Louisiana.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for the southeast third of Texas and southern Louisiana.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over
the middle Texas Gulf coast from near Palacios to Galveston TX.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the
southeastern half of Texas and most of Louisiana.
For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over northern New Mexico, Colorado, extreme east
Texas and Louisiana.
Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of
drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico
are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas,
reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median
average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full.
There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the
reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short
term for the WGRFC area, but some minor improvement is possible over
south Texas. Forecast precipitation totals are favorable for minor
runoff from central Texas to the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast
the next five days, but because of the dry soil moisture conditions
the rainfall will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff
or river flooding.
Rainfall is forecast this weekend mainly in deep South Texas,
spreading northeastward along the Texas Gulf Coast into early next
week. This area is currently experiencing a severe drought and
would welcome a decent rainfall. Although minor rises may occur in
area rivers, no significant flooding is forecast for the next 5
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: