Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 181450
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
950 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2017

                 VALID OCTOBER 18 THROUGH OCTOBER 23

...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
THE WGRFC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions will persist through early Friday, as a
result of upper ridging across the Southeast US. Rivers will
continue to fall across the WGRFC region the remainder of this
week, with no additional significant rainfall expected through
Friday.

The next chance of precipitation is expected tonight/tomorrow,
as an upper level disturbance moves across the Big Bend. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the middle Texas
coast late tonight and may continue through Friday morning. This
activity is not expected to cause any river issues. Another system
(much stronger) is expected to move across the region Saturday and
Sunday. Although the forecast models are showing this system as
being very progressive, rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches are
possible across East Texas on Sunday. No significant river flooding
is expected at this time, however some flash flooding is possible
across low lying areas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of middle Texas coast.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of the WGRFC...excluding West
Texas, Colorado and New Mexico.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 13%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions (mainly over extreme
northeast Texas). In New Mexico, 8% of the state is experiencing
abnormally dry conditions. Very limited rainfall is forecast over
the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Rio Grande above the Rio Conchos confluence (PIOT2) is now
falling within minor flood levels and is expected to drop into
action stage within the next 24 hours or so.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Corpus Christi continues to release but volume has decreased.
Downstream points at Bluntzer (CBVT2) and Calallen (CAAT2) are
above criteria but are falling. The lake is above its conservation
pool of 94 feet and inflows from upstream are slowly decreasing.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently
below criteria levels. No additional flooding is expected over
the next five days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


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