Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

                     VALID MAY 24 THROUGH MAY 29

...THE WGRFC AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE DRY DAYS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RAINFALL EVENT THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system remains over northern Missouri this
morning.  Upper air disturbances rotating around this low had
generated periods of showers and thunderstorms across Texas the past
few days.  One last reinforcing batch of energy passed from northeast
New Mexico across Texas the past 24 hours, which is now over
southwest Louisiana this morning.  This disturbance pushed a cold
front across Texas which generated one last batch of rainfall.  The
heaviest rainfall the past 24 hours was over southeast Texas where
the region around Friendswood received around 2.00 inches.  The area
around Aransas Pass TX got 1.80 inches.  The front exited the WGRFC
area late last night and the rain moved east.

The closed low over Missouri is forecast to drop southeast across
western Tennessee today and eventually will reform over Ohio
Thursday.  The WGRFC area will be on the dry side of this low, with a
ridge of high pressure dominating our region.  Dry weather will
result from today through Friday with warmer temperatures.

By Friday night the ridge of high pressure will be east of Texas.
Then by Saturday morning a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move into Colorado from the northwest.  This will allow for a return
of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Rain chances will return to
the WGRFC area as early as Saturday morning, but it will start out
being light.  By Saturday night and Sunday the upper air disturbance
will pass off to our north.  However, it will push another cold front
into Texas.  As this front encounters better moisture, heavier and
more widespread rain is expected toward the end of the holiday
weekend (mainly Sunday night and Monday). Due to the slow movement
of the front, locally heavy rainfall may result.  The WGRFC
forecasters will be monitoring this storm system through the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast from southwest into central and east Texas
and most of Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00
inches, are forecast northwest of Shreveport LA and east of Del Rio
TX.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are also forecast for south
central into central Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the southeastern two thirds of Texas,
northeast New Mexico, most of Colorado and the remainder of
Louisiana.

Soil moisture conditions had been fairly dry over the parts of
Texas that missed the rainfall events from early May.  However, the
rainfall the past few days has no doubt helped these dry soils.  The
last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered to be
abnormally dry is at 34%. However, only 6% of Texas was experiencing
moderate drought with 1% of the state in severe drought.  In New
Mexico, 18% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions
with 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  The rainfall
the next five days may be heavy enough to produce areas of runoff
over the central and east Texas river basins.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding on the Neches river system is expected to continue
through the weekend. Elsewhere, all other rivers will slowly fall over
the next day or so. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected
through the end of the week. However, more rainfall is expected to
return to the WGRFC region over the weekend.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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