Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 191542
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

                   VALID APRIL 19 THROUGH APRIL 24

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm over the Desert Southwest will help increase the
chances of precipitation over the WGRFC area over the next several
days.  Precipitable Water (PW) values over Far West Texas and New
Mexico are running 200% of normal.  The southwesterly flow aloft,
east of the previously mentioned storm system, is providing a
favorable environment for widespread light to moderate precipitation
across the area.  Over the next 24 hours, this storm system will
slide east and weaken.  The focus for precipitation should also
slide east.  Abundant low level moisture should help in the
precipitation chances.  Widespread thunderstorms and/or severe
weather is not expected as upper level dynamics are not favorable
for the typical, powerful spring thunderstorm setup.

An upper level ridge will form over the WGRFC area by Monday, as a
strong Pacific storm system moves into the Pacific Northwest.  This
storm should cross the Northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday,
shifting the upper level ridge over Texas.  Precipitation chances
will decrease in response to the ridge exerting its influence on the
region.

Rain chances will return later next week as the Pacific storm and the
associated long wave trough sweep through the WGRFC area.  We will
update the rain chances and amounts with this latter system as
details become more focused next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for West Texas.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for New Mexico, Southern
Colorado, and for Texas west of a Wichita Falls to Eagle Pass line.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for the Wichita Falls area.  Lighter MAP amounts are
forecast for Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico, and the central
third of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for the Arklatex and extreme Northeast Texas.  MAP amounts
of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for New Mexico, Southern Colorado,
and for the central third of Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several
weeks over most of the region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of
Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of
Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in
Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full.  This is
below average for this time of year, with average being about 80%
full.  There is considerable variability across the state, with many
of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.  Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the
mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant
impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2)
is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the
area.  The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
ToledoToledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power
generation until further notice.  Deweyville (DWYT2) is above action
stage and continues to fall slowly.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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