Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261552
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 26 THROUGH AUGUST 31

...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL OVER TEXAS UNTIL MIDWEEK WHILE
MONSOON ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak TUT low is currently located off the coast of Louisiana.
This system will continue to track westward today and bring a
surge of deep tropical moisture into southeast and far east Texas.
Unsettled weather will be prevalent with scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely each day into Saturday and possibly Sunday.

The primary rainmaker this forecast period will be from an upper
level trough currently over Nevada.  This feature will arrive in
the plains affecting north Texas Thursday night as it combines
with the low level cyclone in the Gulf.  The best chances of rain
will be Friday into Saturday.  This low level trough will exit the
forecast area Sunday.

In New Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
today and tonight west of the central mountain chain as an upper
level low pressure system over the Great Basin steers abundant
monsoonal moisture northeast over the state.  Some of these slow
moving storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.


At this time, no significant rainfall is expected through the
forecast period.  The rainfall anticipated Saturday should be
mostly beneficial to helping mitigate some of the long standing
drought conditions New Mexico and Texas has endured over the past
3 or more years.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 on an inch are forecast for the upper Rio
Grande valley  and the western half of New Mexico.  The heaviest
amounts are forecast north on Elephant Butte Reservoir into south
central Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for points around and north of El Paso.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch
are forecast for the northwestern portions of Texas with the heaviest
amounts in an area encompassing Midland north to Lubbock.  Another
area with MAP amounts from 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast
for an area in the Hill Country and along the Texas coast from Corpus
Christi to Houston.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are
forecast for the eastern two thirds of Texas with heavier amounts in
north and far east Texas. the heaviest MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are
forecast for the coastal Texas coastal area from Victoria though
Houston/Beaumont and into Louisiana.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area  remain near or below seasonal
flows.  No flooding is forecasted to occur at this time.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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