Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 031610
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

                     VALID JULY 3 THROUGH JULY 8

...MONSOONAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER TEXAS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Weak ridge continues to sit out west of the WGRFC which will
maintaining the monsoonal activity over New Mexico and southern
Colorado areas of the WGRFC.  There is little chance of
precipitation elsewhere around the area for today, but isolated
showers are always possible with daytime heating.  The better chance
for these scattered isolated showers is tomorrow with increased
heating and stronger southerly flow streaming in moisture from the
Gulf.  All of these storms will be more prevalent closer to the
coast decreasing in chances moving inland.  This activity should
remain consistent through Sunday.

Next week a forecast for a frontal boundary could bring a line of
showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend area through the
panhandle into Oklahoma.   This boundary will interact with strong
low level moisture advection in the lower levels while moisture
remaining available aloft to limit the capability of the cap to
reduce storm initiation.  This forecast is still a few days into the
future and will be monitored as it looks to be the next good
widespread rain generator.


                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible over north and central
New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 should
be scattered around most of New Mexico with the monsoonal pattern.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 are
forecasted for scattered areas around New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to up to 1.5
inches for north central and western Texas.  The heaviest rainfall
should be concentrated to the north.  0.5 inches are also possible
over northern New Mexico and Colorado.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas
to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of moderate
flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad
(TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at crest
just above moderate flood stage. Crockett (CRKT2) will be rising
above action stage, and Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly
and may approach flood stage by the weekend.   Lake Livingston has
been holding at 28,400 cfs outflow for several days, but an increase
is possible next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels
continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff
(MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.  Still elevated
flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville
(DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will be running 12 hours of power
generation each day. This will create fluctuations in stage
downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages
at Deweyville by the weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood
levels. However, flows along the river system will remain
elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream
lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area.
Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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