Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 291625
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

                     VALID MAY 29 THROUGH JUNE 3

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Drier air moved into Texas from the west Saturday morning, but the
dry conditions did not last long.  Yet another storm system has
developed which brought more rain to WGRFC`s area last evening
into early this morning.  The next low pressure system has formed
northwest of Los Angeles CA.  Moisture well out ahead of this low
moved up the Rio Grande and into the Hill Country, and this moisture
combined with an upper air disturbance to produce rain over south
Texas northward into western and northern Texas.  Localized flooding
rainfall occurred over the Texas Hill Country before it weakened this
morning.  These areas received in excess of 4.00 inches of rain the
past 24 hours, with amounts of 9 to 10 inches from Bandera to Center
Point TX. This disturbance is spreading over north and central Texas
now, and the precipitation is decreasing for now.

A second upper level disturbance is forecast to move into southwest
Texas this evening, thus the dryline is forecast to be active this
afternoon and evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will produce rain
over primarily the western third of Texas.  This rain will move over
central and north Texas overnight.

By Monday morning the upper low will move over western Arizona. This
will result in the dryline becoming active once again across western
Texas late Monday. This low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
Tuesday so portions of northern and western Texas areas will continue
to see areas of rainfall, especially along and ahead of the dryline
where the strongest thunderstorms are expected.  This rain will
likely spread across the remainder of Texas on Wednesday.

The upper air low pressure system is forecast to move over west Texas
by Thursday morning.  In addition, a cold front is forecast to move
into the state from the northwest.  These systems are forecast to
move slowly across Texas Thursday and Friday. As a result of these
systems, more showers and thunderstorms are expected over Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday, with locally heavy rainfall
possible.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for western and central Texas into
the western parts of north Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts
of 1.50 inches, are forecast from near Abilene to southwest of
Wichita Falls.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of Colorado, extreme northern and eastern New Mexico, and the
northwest two thirds of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for much of the western half of Texas.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of Colorado, eastern New Mexico,
a good part of Texas, and northern Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for the northwest half of Texas and southeast Colorado.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast
between Childress and Wichita Falls, and near Stephenville TX.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of Colorado,
northern and eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for most of Texas, eastern New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, and much of Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast just west of College Station TX.
Widespread 2.00 inch amounts are forecast from San Antonio to south
of Tyler TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most
of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority of Texas. Only 3% of
Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater
drought noted.  Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry,
and 37% remains in the moderate drought category.  With soils being
so wet in Texas, significant runoff is expected from the forecast
rainfall this week over northern and central Texas. Minor runoff may
occur over east Texas as well. Over the remainder of the WGRFC area
little runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues across the San Jacinto river basin.  Most
locations are near or have crested.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Pockets of heavy rainfall produced rises and river flooding
downstream of the Austin area.  Moderate flooding is occurring at La
Grange and Columbus.  Major flooding is forecast at Wharton.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread moderate to major flooding continues in the lower Trinity
river basin with many locations continuing to rise as water moves
downstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Moderate to major flood conditions are occurring in the Brazos River
basin.  The Brazos mainstem from Washington through Hempstead (HPDT2)
and Richmond (RMOT2) to Rosharon (ROST2) is or will experience moderate
and major flood levels through the weekend into early next week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding at Bloomington  (DUPT2) will fluctuate at moderate flood
levels.

There has been a significant flood on the Guadalupe River at Comfort
(COMT2) which is now falling. This will route downstream to Spring
Branch (SRGT2) tonight with impacts at Guadalupe State Park and
eventually will route into Canyon Lake.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The forecast points in the Neches basin are slow responding and will
crest in the next two to three days.   Three locations are expected to
rise into moderate flood levels over the next few days. These sites are
Rockland (ROKT2), Town Bluff (TBFT2) and Beaumont (BEAT2).

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
A significant flood occurred on the Medina River at Bandera (BDAT2)
early this morning. This water is moving into Medina Lake which is
rising, but the rate of rise of the lake has begun to decrease late
this morning.

Downstream of Medina Lake, including in San Antonio, there were
significant rainfall amounts as well. Minor to moderate flooding is
forecast at numerous locations. This includes moderate flooding on
the Medina River at San Antonio (SAAT2) and on the San Antonio River
near Elmendorf (ELMT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Sharp rises are being observed at numerous locations on the Nueces
River, Frio River, and on San Miguel Creek due to rainfall estimates
as high as 8 inches.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the WGRFC area remain relatively
wet, especially the eastern half of Texas, and additional rainfall
expected within the next 5 days will likely generate river responses
which could lead to more river action level and flood level flows.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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