Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271601
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

                    VALID JUNE 27 THROUGH JULY 2

...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TODAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Even with the drier weather returning, there remains a chance
for an isolated shower over eastern New Mexico into the Texas
panhandle. High temperatures in this region will continue to
climb as the week progresses.

With the continued availability of deep gulf moisture and slow
moving storms, central south Texas will have increasing
chances for showers and storms today as well. The potential
exists for high rainfall accumulations and as a result,
localized flash flooding.

As the week progresses, dry and hotter conditions are expected
for WGRFC`s area as a sub-tropical ridge builds in from the west.
As a result, shower chances begin decreasing from west to east
across the WGRFC`s area into the early weekend.

Once again, forecast rainfall today may lead to heavy downpours
and localized flooding as a result of any slow moving storms.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of between 0.50 and 1.00 inch are forecast south Texas
along the Gulf Coast.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast extreme southeast Texas along the LA
border.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast extreme southeast Texas along the LA
border.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 27%, and roughly 5% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, 25% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with about 7%
of the state in the moderate drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
With the exception of out of bank flows on Village Creek near Kountz
(KOUT2) and sustained minor flooding on the Sabine river near
Deweyville (DWYT2) all WGRFC forecast locations are below criteria.
Rainfall continues and is forecast along the Texas coast for the next
few days however no significant flooding is forecast.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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