Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 041829
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1229 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
Yesterday afternoon through early this morning the area of
precipitation that spread across Iowa up to Minnesota and into
western Wisconsin and northern Illinois produced around 1 to 3
inches of snow for most areas. Precipitation totals averaged
around a quarter inch in Iowa, and around a tenth inch in
Lighter snowfall across North Dakota to northern Minnesota and
across upper to northern lower Michigan had less than a tenth inch
of water content. To the south mostly light rain averaged around a
tenth inch in Missouri and less than a tenth inch in central to
In the forecast...today around a quarter inch of precipitation is
expected in eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri to the northern
half of Illinois and southern Wisconsin and northern Indiana, and
in eastern upper Michigan to northern lower Michigan. Areas with
around a tenth inch of precipitation in the forecast include
northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and central Iowa down to central
Missouri and southern Illinois.
For day two scattered showers will produced a half to one inch in
the southern part of Missouri to southern Illinois. And snow over
the northern portion of our region over North Dakota to northern
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will have around a quarter inch
or less of water content.
The lower soil profile in much of the region is still wet from
the wet summer. Although the upper portions of the soil had
dried out from multiple weeks of dry weather in November, much of
the region is wet again in the upper profile from recent snow,
melt, and rain.
Many rivers across the region had small rises in the past week.
In general, the affected rivers are in recession from recent
bankfull crests. Slow responding rivers in Minnesota continue to
climb toward bankfull stages, including the Crow River and the
Mississippi mainstem, which is causing bankfull conditions on the
St. Croix at Stillwater.
The upper Mississippi will see rises over the next week or so
along its entire length to St. Louis. While no flooding is
expected on the major rivers, the flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
The USGS lists streamflows in the 90th and above percentiles for
nearly all tributaries north Des Moines to Quad Cities to
Milwaukee. The Mississippi is above the 75th percentile all the
way to the confluence with the Ohio.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
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