Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 041430
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
929 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...PRECIPITATION...

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS... SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... WHERE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REPORTED WERE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

FURTHER SOUTH... SCATTERED SHOWERS SKIRTED SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS... WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OBSERVED IN THE NCRFC AREA.
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS FELL SOUTH OF CHESTER... MISSOURI.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON BAY
DRAINAGE... NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.  HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS... AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN... ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
PEMBINA... NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE STORMY IN THE RED
RIVER... MINNESOTA AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS EARLY IN THE WEEK... LEADING TO POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

AREA MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE ON RECESSION AFTER MODERATE TO MAJOR TO
RECORD FLOODING OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.  LEVELS ON THE
ILLINOIS RIVER REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FROM HAVANA TO
HARDIN.  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH
THE ILLINOIS RIVER REMAINS ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS.

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
OVER AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE NOT OVERLY SATURATED... SO SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER... MORE RAIN EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY TARGETING MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...
WHERE THE MONTH OF JUNE SAW WIDESPREAD TWO TO TEN INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL TOTALS... AND SEVERAL JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORDS
WERE BROKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: MMZ WES ALH RHR

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...ALH/JCH...





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