Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FZAK80 PAFC 222137
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
138 PM AKDT MONDAY 22 AUGUST 2016

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM SIBERIA THROUGH THE
CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RUSSIA
THROUGH THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

ICE COVERED.

-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

IN THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR WAINWRIGHT
TO 72.2N 166.1W TO 71N 172.3W TO 71.5N 173.8W TO 69.8N 178W AND
CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD.

THE HIGH CONCENTRATION SEA ICE BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN RECENT DAYS...MOVING THE BRASH SEA ICE NEAR
THE COAST BACK TO 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN WAINWRIGHT AND
BARROW.THE NORTHEAST WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL BRASH SEA ICE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ONCE WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY...THE AREA OF HIGH CONCENTRATION SEA ICE TO THE WEST
OF WAINWRIGHT AND BARROW WILL LIKELY MOVE AND COMPACT TOWARD
THE NORTH...POSSIBLY UP TO 20 NM BY SATURDAY.

IN THE BEAUFORT SEA...THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ALASKA-
CANADA BORDER NEAR 70.4N 141.2W TO 72.4N 148.7W TO 71.9N 151.8W TO
70.7N 150.1W TO THE ALASKA COAST NEAR 69.9N 142.1W. THE ICE EDGE IS
MAINLY OPEN WATER. WATERS BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS ARE SEA ICE FREE AT
THIS TIME. THE ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED LOW
CONCENTRATION BELTS OF SEA ICE PAST POINT BARROW THAT MAY BE IN THE
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF
GROUNDED DETERIORATING SEA ICE FLOES ALONG THE OUTER BEACHES OF THE
BARRIER ISLANDS FROM NEAR OLIKTOK POINT OVER TO NEAR BARTER ISLAND.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEA ICE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE INCREASED ICE DECAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT LOW CONCENTRATION
BELTS OF BRASH SEA ICE THROUGH THE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS TO THE
NORTHEAST OFF POINT BARROW ONCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$



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