Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 242305
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
205 PM AKST FRIDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2017

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 01 MARCH 2017

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS...A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF RUSSIA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE BERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 56.0N 161.5W
TO 56.9N 159.3W TO 57.7N 159.0W TO 58.2N 162.5W TO 57.8N 164.1W TO
58.9N 171.3W TO 61.1N 175.5W AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE
ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA ICE PACK THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING. THE MAIN ICE EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTHWARD 20 TO
35 NM BY SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ICE EDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ130-WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
PKZ139-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 59.7N 153.1W TO 59.7N 152.6W TO
60.0N 152.0W TO 59.9N 151.7W. ALSO...NEAR KAMISHAK BAY FROM 59.4N
153.7W TO 59.2N 153.9W TO 58.9N 153.1W. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN
WATER. THERE IS ALSO SOME NEW ICE IN THE SHALLOW AREAS OF KACHEMAK
BAY.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR COOK INLET...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEA ICE WILL
LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST. SEA ICE
WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

$$



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