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AGNT40 KWNM 210736

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
336 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Update...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a weak high pres
ridge over the offshore waters, with a stationary front just
inland of the New England coast. Latest available ascat and
ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 5 to 15 kt winds
over the offshore waters. Lightning density product data at
0650z shows isolated to scattered showers in the northern Georges
Bank and southern Gulf of Maine waters.

Models...The 00z medium range models are in very good overall
agreement across the offshore waters for today through Sat, so
the representative 00z gfs 10m solution will be used for the
wind grids over this timeframe. Since the 00z gfs 10m looks
overdone with the strength of the SW flow in the mid atlantic
waters for Sat Night, will use a 50/50 blend of the 00z ecmwf/gfs
10m for Sat Night. But otherwise, the 00z gfs 10m solution looks
like a very good comprimise between the more fragmented 00z ukmet
and the more consolidated 00z ecmwf for Sat Night through Tue
Night, and also the 00z gfs has very good support from the 00z
gem and the latest WPC Medium Range Forecaster guidance. So with
the exception of Sat Night, will be using the 00z gfs 10m
solution for the wind grids during the forecast period.

Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the offshore waters, and are in very good agreement in
the offshore waters through Sun so the wave height models are
interchangeable for this timeframe. For Sun Night through Tue
Night the 00z wna wavewatch is favored, in order to be consistent
with the preferred 00z gfs 10m solution. Believe the best way to
proceed is by just using the 00z wna wavewatch for the sea height
grids over the entire forecast period.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.


.NT1 New England Waters...

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...


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