Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 300738
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVR THE WRN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
E AND CROSS THE OFF WTRS LTR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE E FROM THE MIDWEST AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLC
COAST LTR TUE...MOVG E OVR NRN NT2 WTRS TUE NGT INTO WED AS IT
STRENGTHENS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WTRS THU
NGT AND FRI...MOVG OFFSHORE FRI NGT. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
EACH OF THESE WX FEATURES AS THEY IMPACT THE OFF WTRS THRU THE
WORK WEEK. CONFDC LVLS IN GALES OCCURRING FRI NGT ARE TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME. OTW...CONFDC IN THE GALES OCCURRING
AT TIMES DURING THE WK...THIS AFTN INTO FRI...IS NR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. BETWEEN THESE WX SYSTEMS AREAS OF HIGH PRES WILL CROSS
THE WTRS ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS.

MODELS...FOR TODAY THRU EARLY FRI THE 00Z GLBL MDLS ARE IN GNRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE OFF WTRS. WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS AS A RESULT THRU EARLY FRI...AND USE THE GFS 30M WINDS OVR
THE WARMER SSTS NR...S AND E OF THE GULF STREAM...OR ROUGHLY OVR
SRN AND CENTRAL INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE NRN NT2 OFF WTRS. TO THE
N OVR NT1 AND NW NT2 OFF WTRS...N AND W OF THE GULF STREAM...WE
WILL USE THE SOMEWHAT LOWER 10M GFS WINDS FOR TODAY THRU EARLY
FRI. DURING FRI WE WILL TRANSITION TO USING THE 00Z ECMWF MDL
GUID...AND USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR FRI
OVR THE OFF WTRS. BY FRI NGT INTO SAT WE WILL RELY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MDL GUID FOR THE EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE AS IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET MDL...WHICH APPEARS TO FIT A LITTLE
BETTER WITH THE FCST UPR LVL PATTERN EXPECTED OVR THE ERN U.S. AT
THAT TIME.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WW3 WV WATCH III MDL OUTPUT AND ECMWF WAM
WV MDL OUTPUT APPEAR TO BE UNDER FCSTNG SEA HTS OVR THE GULF OF
MAINE PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA FROM THAT AREA. WE
WILL ADJUST THE OPC FCSTS AND GRIDS UPWARD FROM THE MDL GUID BY
3-4 FT AS A RESULT AT LEAST INITIALLY FOR THE EARLY AM OPC FCST.
OTW...WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE WW3 AND ECMWF WAM WV GUID
FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE FOR TODAY INTO EARLY FRI...AND THEN
TRANSITION TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WAM THEREAFTER TO FIT THE WIND
FCSTS AS NOTED ABV.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NO SIG DEVIATION FROM THE
ESSG INDICATED BY THE LATEST ESTOFS AND ETSS MDL GUID APPEARS
NEEDED THRU AT LEAST FRI AS WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LATEST
GFS MDL WINDS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ESSG MAY BE NEEDED BY FRI
NGT OR SAT AS WE TREND THE FCST TOWARD THE STRONGER 00Z ECMWF MDL
WINDS.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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