Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 250728
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
328 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Note: Warnings below are preliminary, and will be modified based
on the next NHC advisory for Hurricane Maria.

The current GOES-E infrared satellite imagery indicates
Hurricane Maria just S of the NT2 waters moving slowly N towards
the area, and a more compact system in Hurricane Lee well E of
the offshore waters near 50W. Ascat wind retrievals from 0220 UTC
last night indicated tropical storm force winds extending into
the srn NT2 offshore with up to 50 kt in zone ANZ935. Buoy 41002
in the far SE NT2 waters reported 35 kt sustained winds with
gusts up to 41 kt around 0600 UTC. This corresponds well with
the Ascat pass. Also, the 00Z GFS 10m winds and 00Z ECMWF
surface winds are initialized well when compared with the data,
and the models indicate that Maria will move slowly N into Wed
before turning E and passing E of the area Thu and Fri as an
upper level trough steers the system to the E. The 00Z GFS has
trended slightly slower with Maria, but remains faster than the
rest of the 00Z global models. However, the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM
have all trended faster, but remain slower than the GFS. The
timing and track hinge on the timing of the upper trough moving
in from the NW, and at this am preferring the timing of the 00Z
ECMWF as it trended faster from the previous forecast. For the
wind grids, planning on using previous grids into about 12Z Fri
and modify them with the next NHC advisory. Will then transition
to the 00Z GFS after that time, but will time shift it 12 hours
slower to match the timing of the ECMWF.

.Seas...A 0224 UTC Sentinel altimeter pass indicated seas up to
32 ft to the E of Maria and just S of the offshore waters. The
00Z Wavewatch and ECMWF WAM are initialized within a few ft of
the data, and seem reasonable with moving the seas into the
offshore with the highest winds. However, the 00Z Wavewatch takes
the higher seas off to the east faster than the 00Z ECMWF WAM as
a result of the faster track from the 00Z GFS. For the forecast,
planning on using previous wave height grids to 12Z Fri to remain
consistent with the wind grids, but will adjust based on the next
NHC advisory. Will then populate with the 00Z Wavewatch, but will
time shift it 12 hours slower to match the timing of the 00Z ECMWF
winds.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...For surge information
related to Maria please see the latest information provided by
NHC and local WFO coastal offices.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week. For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm Possible Wednesday into Thursday night.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday into Friday.
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light...
     Tropical Storm Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ828...Inner Waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light...
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Tropical Storm tonight.
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
     Hurricane Possible Wednesday into Thursday.
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday night.
.ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras...
     Tropical Storm tonight.
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ833...Inner Waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear...
     Tropical Storm tonight.
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Tropical Storm today.
     Hurricane tonight.
     Hurricane Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday.
.ANZ835...Inner Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Tropical Storm tonight.
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Tropical Storm today.
     Hurricane today into tonight.
     Hurricane Possible Tuesday.
     Tropical Storm Possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

$$

.Forecaster Kells. Ocean Prediction Center.



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