Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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385
AGNT40 KWNM 221918
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.


SFC LOW THAT WAS SE OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IS NOW E OF GEORGES
BANK AND ACCRLTNG NE AT 45 KT. SCATTEROMETER PASS FM 15Z MISSED
THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS ASSD WITH THIS LOW. BY THIS EVENING...
XPECT LOW TO BE NEAR SABLE ISLAND AND CONTG TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE.
FOLLOWING THIS LOW...COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SSE ACROSS THE
WATERS TNGT AND WEAKEN AS IT PLUNGES S INTO THE RIDGE. MODELS
AGREE ON THE WRN PRTN OF THE FRONT MVG PAST BALT CNYN BY 12Z...
THEN DSIPTG S OF HTTRS CNYN SAT. STRNGTHNG HIGH PRES WILL MUSCLE
IN ITS WAY FM THE W TNGT...INCRSNG THE NW GRADIENT BTN THE HIGH
AND SCNDRY LOW OVR THE GF OF ST LWRNC. GFS INCRS NW WINDS TO 35 KT
OVR THE GF OF MAINE BY 12Z...THEN EASES WINDS BACK TO W TO SW 15
TO 25 KT BY 00Z SUN AS THE LOW QUICKLY WEAKENS. THE GFS CONTS TO
FCST THIS BRF PERIOD OF GALES EARLY SAT AND CONTS TO BE THE MODEL
WITH THE SLGTLY STRNGR WINDS. SINCE DFFRNCS ARE SMALL AND THE
MODELS TEND TO UNDERDO NW FLOW EVENTS...WL LV GALES INTACT.

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SAT...THEN ESTBLSH A W
TO E RDG ALNG 35/38N. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THRU TUE NIGHT...
THEN DRIFT N AND WEAKEN WED AND WED NGT AS THE UPR RDG SLOUGHS OFF
TO THE E. MODELS AGREE ON THIS FTR...WITH MINOR DFFRNCS NOTED IN
THE DETAILS. EXPECT LGT E TO NE WINDS S OF HTTRS CNYN SUN THRU WED
NGT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE WRN WATERS MON...OTW THE THE
MAIN CHALLANGE WL BE THE TIMING AND EFFECT OF WEAK SFC TROFS
GLIDING ALONG THE NW SIDE OF THE RDG...PRODUCING SW WINDS OF
VARYING INTNSTY...15 TO 30 KT OVR THE NRN WATERS SUN THRU WED NGT.
WL CONT ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FCST WITH MAINLY LGT SW
WINDS...EXCEPT MOD SW WINDS N OF CAPE COD MON NGT THRU WED NGT.
THE GFS RMNS THE STRNGST WITH THESE WINDS...AT TIMES ABOUT 5 TO 10
KT HIGHER THEN UKMET/ECMWF. CNSDRNG THE INCRSNG LL INVERSION AND
STABLE FLOW...WL USE THE GFS 10M WINDS AND ;LIMIT THEM TO 25 KT
DURING THIS TIME.

.SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT IT IS ABOUT 2 FT UNDERDONE WITH THE SEAS
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GALE SE OF CAPE COD. THE WAVEWATCH GDNC
LOOKS GOOD...ONCE THE LOW QUICKLY MVS OFF TO THE NE. THE ECMWF WAM
GDNC LOOKS A LTTL TOO HIGH WITH THE SEA IN THE SW FLOW....SO WL
STAY WUITH THE WAVEWATCH GDNC.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N?A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE SAT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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