Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 311327
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
827 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

AS A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER JUST S OF SW NOVA SCOTIA CONTS SLOWLY
OFF TO THE E THE WNWLY GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE ACRS THE NT1 AND
CNTRL/NRN NT2 WTRS HAS GALE FORCE ASCD WINDS WITH SM STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACRS THE ERN NT1 AND NE MOST NT2 WTRS. MAX ASCD SEAS ARE IN
THE 12-18 FT RANGE...HIGHEST ACRS THE ERN NT1 AND NE MOST NT2
WTRS...WHICH ARE BEING HANDLED BETTER BY THE HIGHER 00Z ECMWF WAM
VS THE 06Z WAVEWATCH III AT THE MOMENT.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMT THAT THE
STRONG LOW WL CONT SLOWLY OFF TO THE NE INTO SUN WITH THE NWLY
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE GRADLY WKNG WITH ASCD GALES ENDING BY EARLY
SUN. PER THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THE ONLY CHNG TO THE PREV WRNGS FOR
THIS SYSTEM WL BE TO UPGRADE THE GULF OF MAINE TO A MARGINAL STORM
WRNG FOR EARLY TODAY. SO OTHERWISE NO SIG SHORT TERM CHNGS ARE
PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...AGAIN THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN GNRLY AGRMT THAT
ANOTHER DVLPG SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ACRS THE FAR NW NT2 AND FAR SRN
NT1 WTRS MON INTO MON NITE WHL PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE WTRS. THE 06Z GFS CONTS THE TREND OF ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS
IN BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z
UKMET/ECMWF. THE 00Z GEM SPRTS THE 06Z GFS TRACK AND THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN EVEN INDICATES THAT THE 06Z GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW. BUT
FOR NOW WULD USE A COMPROMISE WITH THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF. THEREFORE
FOR NOW WL CONT WITH THE PREV POPULATED 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR
THIS SYSTEM TIME SHIFTED SLOWER. IN DEFERENCE THO MAINLY TO THE
00Z ECMWF...WL BE MAKING SM MINOR EDITS TO THESE WINDS WHICH WL
RESULT IN SM MINOR TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE CHNGS TO THE PREVLY
ASCD WRNGS. WITH THE 06Z GFS CONTG TO FCST A 65-80 KT 925 MB LOW
LEVEL JET TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF THE ASCD COLD FRONT WL CONT TO
FCST STORM FORCE SLY WINDS TO DVLP ACRS THE WARMER OUTER NT2 AND
FAR SE NT1 WTRS. SO OVERALL NO MAJOR LONG RANGE CHNGS ARE PLANNED
FOR THE NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...DVLPG LOW PRES CNTRD ABOUT 220 NM E OF CAPE COD WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE TODAY AND TONITE...WHILE PASSING S OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PULLING A STG COLD FRONT E TOWARDS BERMUDA. A HI PRES
RIDGE WILL BUILD SE OVER THE SW NT2 WTRS TODAY AND TONITE...THEN
MOVE SE ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS SUN INTO SUN NITE AS ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS SE INTO THE NT1 AREA. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC COAST EARLY MON...MOVE NE ACRSS THE SRN NT1 WTRS
WHILE INTENSIFYING LATER MON...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE MON NITE
AND TUE WHILE CONTG TO INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL PULL ANOTHER STG
COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2 AREA MON INTO MON NITE. A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W MON NITE THROUGH TUE NITE...THEN PASS E
OVER THE OFSHR WTRS WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NEW
ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS WED NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE 00Z GFS IS A FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MDLS FOR MON THRU TUE...AND THE 00Z GEM IS TOO SLOW
FOR THE TUE NITE THRU WED NITE TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z GFS 30M LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE WITH THE RECURRING STG WX FEATURES AND WILL BE USED
TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT IT WILL BE
TIME SHIFTED 6 HRS SLOWER OVER THE MON THRU TUE TIMEFRAME.

.SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED
WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAM IS SIGNIF HIGHER THAN
THE 00Z MWW3 FOR TODAY THRU SUN. THE MDLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH PREFRONTAL GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS MON...BUT ECMWF WAM IS
HIGHER IN N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WTRS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL USE A 2:1
ECMWF WAM/MWW3 BLEND FOR TODAY THRU SUN...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE MON
INTO TUE. OTHW...WILL POPULATE THE SEA HT GRIDS WITH A 50/50
BLEND DURING THE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS SHOWING A SIGNIF
MORE NEG SURGE THAN ETSS ALG THE NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENG COASTS
FOR TODAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL STG OFSHR WIND EVENTS ESTOFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO NEG...SO THE SURGE VALUES SHOWN BY ETSS ARE
LIKELY MORE REASONABLE.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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