Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 141350
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
850 AM EST SUN 14 FEB 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SEVERAL BUOYS OVER NEW ENGLAND WATERS CONTINUE TO REPORT GALE
FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST AT 44017 31 G 41 KT LAST
HOUR. ALSO SHIP WHICH REPORTED 40 KT JUST SE OF NORTHERN NT2
WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM AT 12Z HAS A MEAN WIND SPEED ERROR
OF +5 KT. WITH THIS MORNINGS OFFSHORE FORECASTS WILL ALLOW GALE
WARNINGS TO EXPIRE OVER INNER ZONES ANZ820 AND ANZ810 AS WELL AS
ANZ925...AND NW GALES SHOULD SHIFT E OF ALL OFFSHORE WATERS BY
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.

THEN WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE DEVELOPING LOWS
ALONG THE FRONT...THE LATEST GEFS MEAN STILL SUGGESTS THAN
00Z/06Z GFS IS LIKELY 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO PROGRESSIVE. THEN AS A
COMPROMISE FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED USED A TIME SHIFTED GFS (SIX HOUR SLOWER) AND ECMWF
BLEND. AGAIN WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY UPGRADE A FEW ZONES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
FORECAST IF TREND CONTINUES WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. MODELS STILL
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING OF MAIN DEVELOPING FRONTAL
WAVE WHICH IS WHERE FOCUS OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT RUNS OF GFS TRENDED WEAKER WITH NEXT
DEVELOPING CLIPPER TYPE LOW WED...AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET COMPLETLY
DROPPED IT.

THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 06Z WAVEWATCH III AND
THE 00Z ECMWF WAM AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH ECMWF WAM
INDICATING A MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE NE NT2
WATERS OF 24 FT WHICH IS 8 TO 9 FT HIGHER THAN WW3. LATEST SHIP
AND BUOY OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND THIS GUIDANCE OVER THE NEAR
TERM.

---------------------------------------------------------------
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STG CAA CONTS ACRS MUCH OF THE OFFSHR WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG AND
SHUD BEGIN TO EASE LATER TDA INTO TNGT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
BUOY OBS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND CLOSER TO THE
EARLIER 12Z ECMWF WAM GUID WHICH IS EVIDENT OVR THE SRN AREAS OF
THE NEW ENGLAND WTRS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS FM 02Z OVR THE NEW
ENGLAND WTRS INTO THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL MID ATLC
WTRS. GALES WERE WIDESPREAD ACRS THIS REGION WITH WINDS TO 35
KT. A COMPARISON TO THE 00Z 30M GFS DOES SHOW THAT OBS ASCAT
WINDS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE OBSERVED BY ASCAT DATA. THE
AREA OF GALES SHIFT E OF THE OFFSHR WTRS LATER TDA INTO EARLY
TNGT AS STG HIGH PRES APPROACHES THE COASTLN. BY MON DVLPG LOW
PRES MOVS NE FM THE SE US TOWARDS THE MID ATLC REGION. MDL GUID
CONTS TO SHOW DIFFS ON THE TRACK OF THE DVLPG LOW PRES WHICH
MOVS NE OVR THE MID ATLC STATES FM MON NGT INTO TUE. THE GFS IS
NOW QUICKER AND FURTHER NW WITH ITS TRACK WHILE BOTH THE
GEM/UKMET ARE SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COASTLN. THE UKMET BY
LATER TUE NGT INTO WED IS DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS SVRL DVLPG LOW ALG THE CD FNT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
CONSOLIDATES THESE DVLPG LOWS BY TUE NGT. THE 12Z ECMWF GUID DID
SHOW SVRL LOW CNTRS ON THE FNT. WL FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE
GRIDS...BUT HAV WINDS NO STGR THAN 45 KT WITH CONFDC STILL NOT
TOO HIGH CONCERNING WHERE ANY STORM FORCE MAY BE. HIGH PRES DOES
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FM THE W WED NGT AND THU. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SMLR WITH AN UPR LVL MERIDIONAL TROF MOVG OFFSHR LATE WED
AND WED NGT. BOTH MDLS HINT AT A WK SFC LOW FORMING...ALTHO NOT
IN A SMLR LOCATION. THESE MDLS ARE SMLR WITH A NLY SURGE DVLPG
BY LATE WED NGT OR EARLY THU OVR THE OFFSHR WTRS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FM THE W. WL USE THE ECMWF FOR GRIDS SINCE IT WL BE
USED WITH THE DVLPG LOW LATE MON INTO WED.

.SEAS...NOT MANY OBS WERE AVLBL TO ASSESS HOW GOOD THE MULTIGRID
WWIII AND ECMWF WAM WERE DOING ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN NRN MID
ATLC AREAS EARLY THIS MRNG. WHERE BUOY OBS WERE AVLBL SEAS WERE
HIGHER THAN WWIII INDICATED. THE ECMWF CONTS TO BE MUCH HIGHER
WITH SEAS OVR THE ERN AREAS OF THE REGION. HAV NOT SEEN ANY
RECENT JASON DATA TO QUANTIFY THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN MID ATLC
WTRS. WL CONT TO HAV A HIGHER WGT TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAM OVR THE
WWIII SINCE IT LIKELY IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THE STG CAA
TDA.
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO LOWER
WITH NEGATIVE SURGE THIS MRNG COMPARED TO THE ESTSS WHICH DOES
NOT EASE UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN NGT ALG THE MID ATLC NWD INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY.
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY.
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS
CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE
HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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