Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 062051
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF GALE WINDS OFF THE
CENTRAL JERSEY CST. THE LOW HAS SINCE MOVED JUST ONSHORE AND WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED BLO GALE. A CLOSED UPR LOW...WHICH IS PART OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUEING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A S/WV
DIGS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENLGAND WATERS...WHILE A WEAK UPR RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD FURTHER S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ONLY BEGINNING TO DIFFER ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS TUE THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE
UKMET BRINGS A LOW CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
THU. THE GFS ISNT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW CENTER AS THE
UKMET...ALTHOUGH MOVES A WEAK LOW CENTER OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE SOLN AND WILL BE MY
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE GRIDS GO...WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING THE 30M GFS
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO THE 10M GFS THROUGH 09Z
SUN... FROM 12Z SUN THROUGH 06Z MON WILL USE THE 30M GFS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAYS WILL POP WITH THE 10M GFS...WITH SMALL
EDITS AS NEEDED.

SEAS...BOTH THE WNA AND WAM INTIALIZED PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE TWO MODELS THROUGH 09Z SUN...THEN POP USING THE WNA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...DURING THE PERIOD SUN INTO
MON I FAVOR THE STRONGER NEG SURGE OF THE ETSS GIVEN THE POST-
FRONTAL NW GRADIENT...WHICH IS SIGHTLY MORE NEG THAN THE ESTOFS
FCST DURING THAT TIME.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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