Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 010838
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA
CONTINUES FROM THE BIG BEND REGION SW TO NEAR 25N87W. LLVL VORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE HAS BECOME CAPTURED ACROSS THE NE GULF
BY MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF OLD ELONGATED MID-UPPER TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NE ACROSS N FL AND INTO THE SW N ATLC
WATERS THROUGH THU. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVERGENCE
S OF 25N WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WNW TO NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKNESS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WEAK HIGH
PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF ATTM AND IS PROMOTING
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE
BASIN THIS MORNING. PEAK SEAS ARE 3-4 FT ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS WHERE FETCH HAS LONGEST LENGTH ACROSS THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE
OBS AND MODELS SUGGESTS SEAS 2-3 FT ATTM.

AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND LLVL REMNANTS SHIFT NE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE WEAK HIGH ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF WILL SETTLE S TO
SSE INTO N PORTIONS AND BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
TO THE SE. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SW HALF OF THE BASIN AND ALLOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON YUCATAN THERMAL
TROUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW 15-20 KT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND WED
EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING. ELSEWHERE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MILD MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL ZONES THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ESE ACROSS NW PORTIONS NEXT 48 HOURS AND PROMOTE ACTIVE WX
ON E SIDE OF TROUGH...AFFECTING SE TX AND LA NEAR AND OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS

1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W THIS MORNING MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN TO PRODUCE FRESH E TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS...AND STRONG NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA...WHERE PEAK
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. 02Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED
AREAS OF SOLID 25 KT WITHIN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA CENTERED ON 12.5N73W. ELSEWHERE FRESH ELY TRADES CONTINUE
ACROSS W PORTIONS FROM GULF OF HONDURAS N TO 20N...AND BUOY 42056
UP TO 5 FT ATTM...AND SEAS LIKELY TO 6 FT SSW OF THERE. TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING INTO W CARIB THIS MORNING...WITH N PORTION MOVING
ACROSS NW PART AND INTERACTING WITH WEAKENING TUTT LOW FOR ACTIVE
CNVTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD AND INTO
YUCATAN NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE SRN PORTION OF WAVE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR EPAC. NEXT WAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB ATTM HAS BEEN HIGH AMPLITUDE CAUSING WEAKENED WIND FLOW E
PORTIONS.

HIGH PRES ACROSS SW N ATLC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND EXTEND A RIDGE TO THE SE...REDUCING THE PRES
GRADIENT AND TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WED AND THU. FRESH
FLOW TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREA S OF 14N DURING THAT TIME. SLIGHT
EXPANSION OF GULFMEX HIGH TO THE SE WED WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
GULF OF HONDURAS DURING EVENING/NOCTURNAL MAX...REACHING 20-25 KT
AND 6-7 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NW PORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HAVE SINCE SHIFTED NE AND ACROSS COASTAL
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LEAVES 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRES GRADIENT TO THE S PRODUCING
FRESH ELY TRADES THROUGH THE SE WATERS AND ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS
AND FAR SE BAHAMAS...WITH RECENT 02Z ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTING 20
KT WINDS OFF NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE.
LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS ERN CARIB
WILL MOVE ACROSS NE CARIB TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN NW ACROSS
BAHAMAS WED AND THU. SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPING SE INTO THE
NW AND THEN N CENTRAL ATLC WILL NUDGE THE SFC HIGH SE AND CREATE A
NW TO SE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND MILD SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY 10-15 KT TRADES SE PORTIONS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN MODELS HANDLING OF UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO NE PORTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT...AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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