Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
AGXX40 KNHC 311735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC FROM NEAR PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AS A STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA. THE MID-
LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP BY A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STARTING SAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OVER THE NE GULF...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW SW WINDS TO
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
CONSISTENT A FRESH BREEZE BEGINNING MON MORNING BEHIND A TROPICAL
WAVE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE N.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HAS SHRUNK
TO THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-78W AS CONFIRMED BY THE 1032 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS. THIS AREA WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER
THE SW N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPAND EASTWARD MON THROUGH TUE
IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET ASIDE FROM AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 77W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WILL CROSS
55W ON SAT...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN...REACH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WED. A
THIRD WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLUSTERED IN A SWATH FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NW WATERS AND UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N71W AND A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. SW WINDS HERE ARE 20-25
KT ACCORDING TO THE 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS...WITH BUOY 41002 JUST NE
OF THIS AREA REPORTING 19 KT SW WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS AT 1600 UTC.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT
BY MON MORNING AS THE TROUGHING SLACKENS HERE. AS THE TROUGHING
DIMINISHES...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 1023 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 29N62W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE SHOULD REACH FROM 30N65W TO PORT EVERGLADES
SUN AND FROM 31N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY TUE. IN ADDITION...FRESH
TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.