Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
000
AGXX40 KNHC 231719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
119 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND MOVE WEST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH
N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. A
WEAK DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WILL EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BRING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF THESE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND
PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE BASIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WEST OF 55W UNTIL
MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON TUESDAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30N63W WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATE SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...REPLACED BY A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK.

THE CURRENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT N OF 23N. SOUTH OF
23N...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO
FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS TO THE N OF
23N WILL BECOME MODERATE E TO SE...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES 113 AND 115 NEAR THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.