Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 230745
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
245 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A strong cold front is in the process of exiting the southeast
Gulf with a vigorous line of thunderstorms ahead of the front
moving across south Florida, the Florida Bay, and the Florida
Keys. Recent scatterometer data showed 30-40 kt winds north of
24N west of the front to about 93W, with 20-30 kt winds
sampled elsewhere north of 22N both ahead of and behind the
front. A buoy in the northeast Gulf recently reported 20 ft seas,
with seas of 10 ft or greater blanketing almost the entire basin.
The front will completely exit in the next few hours with gale
force winds gradually diminishing through the afternoon. The
large area of seas will continue to propagate eastward impacting
the western Florida Peninsula coastline through tonight.

High pressure will build into the western Gulf this afternoon in
the wake of the front, moving to the northern Yucatan Peninsula
Tuesday afternoon, then to south Florida and eastward Wednesday
as the next cold front approaches. Southerly return flow will
increase to fresh to strong west of 94W/95W by Tuesday afternoon
as the pressure gradient tightens. The front will move into the
northwest Gulf Wednesday morning, reaching from the Florida big
bend to 22N96W to the Chivela Pass by Thursday morning, then
stalling and weakening from the Straits of Florida to the
southern Gulf along 22N by Friday morning. Fresh to strong
northerly flow will arrive behind the front, with the strongest
winds near Gale force offshore of Mexico from Tampico
southward Wednesday night. Winds will weaken behind the front
throughout the basin by Thursday night as the front begins to
stall out.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A strong cold front has entered the northwest Caribbean from the
western tip of Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong
northwest flow and building seas in northwest swell will filter
through the Yucatan Channel this morning through the afternoon,
with fresh to strong southwest flow north of 20N south of Cuba.
The front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica
to near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, then will
stall from the northeast Caribbean to south of Jamaica to Costa
Rica by early Wednesday where it will gradually dissipate. Winds
will weaken behind the front by late tonight, however a surge of
20-25 kt is expected in the offshore waters near the Honduras/
Nicaragua border, with fresh to strong southwest winds also
expected ahead of the front through the Windward Passage as the
front nears there.

Light and variable winds will prevail across the basin by Tuesday
night as the front weakens and begins to stall. Northeast to east
trade wind flow will return by Wednesday night and winds will
increase to fresh to strong offshore of northwest Colombia
Wednesday night through the end of the week. Seas will build to
8-11 ft as the area of trades expands Thursday night and Friday
with low pressure over northern Colombia deepening slightly.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft to continue through the
forecast period. The only change will be the decaying southerly
portion of the cold front which will sink south across the waters
to the north of 15N Thursday, causing winds to briefly shift
near the boundary.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A strong cold front is moving offshore of the Florida panhandle
with a vigorous line of thunderstorms ahead of the front. Very
dangerous and frequent lightning will likely persist through the
day as the front continues eastward. A recent scatterometer pass
confirmed gale force southerly winds ahead of the front and gale
force winds will continue to shift eastward across the waters
north of 24N ahead of the front, with gale force west-northwest
winds behind the front. Seas will quickly build to 12-20 ft
across a large portion of the basin through the day, expanding
eastward tonight.

Winds and seas will be gradually diminishing by late Tuesday as
the front reaches from Bermuda to the Dominican Republic. A
broad area of lingering 8-13 ft seas and strong northwest winds
covering the area east of Bahamas will subside from west to east
through Wednesday night as high pressure builds eastward behind
the front.

The next cold front will move off the southeast coast of the
United States early Thursday, moving across the waters off
northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas through the end of
the week. Fresh to near gale force winds will accompany the front
both ahead of and behind it across the waters north of 27N, with
seas building back to 7-10 ft north of 27N through Friday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     Gale Warning early today.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     Gale Warning today.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     Gale Warning early today into tonight.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning early today into tonight.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Tue.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     Gale Warning today.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Tue.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.



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