Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
AGXX40 KNHC 301709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE FAR NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY 3-
5 NM REPORTS. WILL CARRY DENSE FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST 24
HOURS. STRONG SE RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT...CURRENTLY
OVER THE SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO FRESH WINDS WITH 4-7
FT SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH
EMBEDDED BRIEF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF ON MON WITH
STRONG N WINDS SETTING UP W OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N97W ON MON
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING S TO NEAR 19N96W ON TUE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT THEN MOVES E AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WED EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH
TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PULSE TO STRONG THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE PORTION WITH SEVERAL
N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF 29N. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS
THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 68W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
31N70W TO NE FL WILL CONTINUE E PASSING BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A
NE TO SW RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO
PORT CANAVERAL ON SUN NIGHT...THEN MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING SE ON WED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE
NE FL COAST. REINFORCING WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.