Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 070753
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
253 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. medium-High confidence.

A cold front extending from south Florida to the southwestern
Gulf will drift northward today, reaching the central Gulf by
Thursday morning while weakening. A strong cold front will emerge
off the coast of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday morning. Northerly
winds will rapidly increase behind the front, with frequent gusts
to gale force just behind or shortly after the frontal passage.
This front will gradually merge with the old front. Then, the
strong cold front will cross the Gulf region Thursday and Thursday
night. Strong high pressure will build southeast toward the northern
Gulf behind the front. This will support strong to gale force
winds across the western Gulf waters. Gale conditions are expected
across forecast zone GMZ017 starting Thursday evening. Then, these
conditions will spread southward across forecast zone GMZ023
Thursday night. The gale force winds will persist north of 22N
near the Tampico area through Friday morning, and into Friday
night south of 22N near the Veracruz area. Strong to near gale
northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of
the Gulf behind the front through Friday night, tapering off into
the day Saturday, as the high weakens slightly and moves eastward
towards the Carolinas. Marine guidance continues to suggest gale
force winds in the 35-45 kt range and building seas of 16-17 ft
with this event.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The most recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean with seas to 8 ft based
on an altimeter pass. Mainly fresh winds are noted across the
remainder of the east and central Caribbean with gentle to
moderate E-SE winds over the western Caribbean. High pressure
over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to
strong trades over the waters of the central Caribbean, especially
north of the coast of Colombia through Thursday night. Late
Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean
with fresh to strong northeast winds in the wake of the front. As
high pressure builds east over the western Atlantic this upcoming
weekend, 20 to 25 kt northeast to east winds will spread across
the majority of the Caribbean Sea, with 25 to 30 kt winds just
north of the coast of Colombia. As a result, seas will build to 8
to 12 ft over a large portion of the central Caribbean Saturday
night. These strong winds and large seas will likely persist
through Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure of 1021 mb located just east of area extends a ridge
across much of the forecast region. Strong return flow and seas
of 8 to 9 ft are noted across the north waters, mainly N of 29N W
of 70W ahead of a cold front extending across the NW waters. These
marine conditions will shift east with this front along the northern
zones. The front will reach from 31N73W to south Florida this morning,
and from 28N65W to SE Florida Thursday morning, then stall along
26N/27N. A strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones
late Thursday, merging with the stationary front on Friday. Fresh
to strong northwest winds are expected in the wake of this second
cold front starting early on Friday. The merging front will reach
from 27N65W to central Cuba by Saturday morning, and from 24N65W
to near the Windward Passage by Sunday morning. Strong high pressure
N of this front will support a broad area of strong winds and
building seas E of the Bahamas this weekend. Seas are forecast to
build to 9-10 ft south of 27N E of the Bahamas late on Saturday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Thu night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Thu night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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