Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 292058
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
158 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 18Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL CA WATERS BETWEEN A 1026 MB HIGH W OF THE FCST AREA
AND A 1012 MB LOW OVER NRN CA. UNFORTUNATELY THE ASCAT PASSES THIS
AFTN MISSED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE CA COAST. OTHERWISE
NO OTHER SFC FEATURES TO DISCUSS OVER THE OPC WATERS AS THE HIGH
PRES RIDGE W OF THE WATERS DOMINATES THE PATTERN.

THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE NE INTO THE PZ5 WATERS BY
EARLY MON...SHIFTING THE PINCHED GRADIENT AND 20-30 KT WINDS NWD
INTO THE SRN OR WATERS AS WELL. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WED BUT
REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN PZ5/NRN PZ6 WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT LOW
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PZ5 WATERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN
PZ5/NRN PZ6 WATERS. THIS SHOULD STEER THE LOW AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS NW OF THE PZ5 WATERS...WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NW WA WATERS ON FRI MORNING.

THE 12Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS
VERY SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE 30/10M
GFS WINDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT TO BETTER CAPTURE THE ENHANCED NLY
FLOW DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...FOLLOWED BY THE 10M GFS WINDS THROUGH
FRI AFTER COLLABORATING WITH A COUPLE OF THE COASTAL WFOS. THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO THE OUTER PZ5 WATERS LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. BUT THE ECMWF IS ALSO WEAKER WITH IT...SO THE NET
RESULT IS A VERY SIMILAR WIND FIELD TO THE PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION.

.SEAS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE NWW3/ECMWF WAM
THROUGH TUE MORNING TO BUMP UP SEAS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST SEA
STATE ANALYSES. AFTERWARDS...FAVORED THE NWW3 TO MATCH UP WITH
THE FCST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER REINHART. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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