Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 221004
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
304 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

09Z SAT IMAGERY AND 06Z NCEP SFC ANAL SHOWS LOW PRES ON FNT HAS
PASSED NE OF WTRS WITH TRAILING CDFNT NOW ACRS OREGON WTRS. GALES
STILL APRNT FM 09Z DATA OREGON AND WA CSTL WTRS AT LEAST UP TO
DESW1...EVEN SOME STORM FRC GUSTS. AS FNT SETTLES SE BUT WKNS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO SHIFT DOWN CST TO CAPE MENDOCINO
LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING BEFORE DMSHG. FOR OFFSHORES INNER ZONE
OFF SRN OREGON MAY HAVE MRGL GALE TO START FIRST PRD BUT OTRW
DMSHG WNDS BHND FNT. OFF SRN CA EXPECT TO START WITH 25 KT ARND PT
CONCEPTION. 0422-0600Z ASCAT-A PASSES SUGGEST AT LEAST 20 KT BUT
MISSES MUCH OF SRN CA AREAS.

NO FCST ISSUES FOR NEAR TERM. EXPECT WK SECONDARY TROF OR CDFNT TO
ENTER NRN WTRS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE ASCD LOW PRES PASSES
NW OF WTRS. POPULATED NEAR TERM THRU FRI MRNG WITH 00Z GFS BUT
BOOSTED 10 PCT FOR WNDS AHD OF CDFNT AND CAA BEHIND IT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SHRTWV ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF SW AK OR SE BERING BHND
GLF OF AK CLOSED LOW MAKES THINGS INTERESTING LATER FRI INTO SAT
NIGHT WITH MDLS COMING INTO BETTER AGRMT ON A TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF AN ASCD DVLPG LOW PRES EXPECTED TO ENTER SW OREGON OR FAR NW CA
OFSHR AREAS FRI AFTERNOOON THEN WITH ASCD H5 SHRTWV BCMG MORE NEG
TILTED SPRTG DPNG OF LOW AS IT LIFTS NNE ACRS PZ5 AREA. UKMET IS
ERN OUTLIER MOVG IT INLAND TOO SOON. POPULATED WNDS WITH 00Z ECMWF
WHICH APPRS NR MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR IN INTENSITY TO TO
OTHER MDLS. MORE PESSIMISTIC ON WNDS AND WITH MDLS TRENDING
STRONGER...HAVE EXPANDED GALES TO NW CA ZONES FRI AFTN THEN SHFTG
AND SPRDG N WHILE INCREASING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY
HAVE TO PUT UP STORM WRNGS FOR PARTS OF AREA AND CSTL AREAS ESPCLY
PAC NW COULD SEE SLY WNDS AHD OF SYSTEM AT LEAST AS STRONG AS WITH
CURRENT FNT. AS LOW EXITS BY SUN MRNG EXPECT GALES TO END FM S TO
N BY THEN. RIDGING FOLLOWS BUT THINGS GET MURKY AGAIN SUN NIGHT AS
MDLS SHOW WIDE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT IS TO COME NEXT. STAYED WITH
00Z ECMWF FOR RMNDR OF FCST PRD. DID MOOST ITS 10M WNDS BY 10 PCT
ARND LOW PRES PULLING IN CAA BHND IT.
LON I00Z NCEP ANALYSIS HAS A

SEAS...00Z ENP WW3 INIT WELL WITH 06Z SEA STATE ANAL EXCP 1-2 FT
LOW NR WA/OR CST WHERE STG CSTL GALES PRESENT. USED 00Z ENP WW3
THRU FRI MRNG THEN SHFTD TO 50/50 BLEND WITH 00Z ECMWF WAM FOR
RMNDR OF FCST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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