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000
AGPN40 KWNM 230335
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
735 PM PST Thu Feb 22 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

It appears the network issues have been resolved and the ECMWF is
now available in GFE. Other models such as UKMET, CMC, GFS and
NAM appear to be coming in on time and completely. Also, we are
receiving observations and ASCAT winds.

The morning ASCAT-A pass indicated an area of northerly gale
force winds had shift S onto the Oregon and northern PZ6 inner
waters, and these are marginal, but led to greater confidence in
the gale warnings as of 00Z for the offshores early this evening.
However low pressure that was on the southern Oregon coast at 18Z
has moved Se and inland as of 00Z and the trend is to end the
gales for the offshore waters this evening and the evening update
will not start with gale warnings.

Models appear to be in decent agreement through most of the
forecast period, with some differences emerging 00Z Tue with the
12Z ECMWF. With solid reasoning, will continue the existing
forecast with no significant changes.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

18Z ASCAT pass continues to show gales off of the Oregon coast.
Will continue this over night as an area of weak low pressure
moves SE along the coast and dissipates.

Model data has been much more accessible with this 12Z run. The
ECMWF is now available in GFE and the UKMET is now available in
NAWIPS. After struggling a bit through the network outages over
the last few days, it is nice to see the current models.

Fortunately, the pattern has been and will remain fairly
consistent with a high pressure ridge to the east of the waters
and a series of short waves moving across the northern and
central waters. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET are all in very good
agreement through 00Z Mon. Will continue the use of the 10m GFS
for the majority of this time period. However, will use the 30m
GFS for time periods of instability with the shortwave passages.
This will help keep gales over the waters with the associated
fronts. Beyond 18z Mon, the GFS and ECMWF are in very good
agreement with a few intensity differences. the wind directions
appear to be quite close so will use a 50/50 blend of the GFS and
ECMWF.

.SEAS...Will continue to use the WW3 with some edits during the
time periods of gale force winds in the wind grids.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday night into Saturday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday night into Saturday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Saturday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Saturday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Bancroft/Sommerville. Ocean Prediction Center.



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