Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 261412
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
612 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

PER 12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS A WARM FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE PZ5 WATERS
W/A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER PZ5/PZ6 WATERS ITSELF. 06Z GFS/NAM HAVENT CHANGED
MUCH FROM THEIR PRIOR 00Z RUNS SO FOR THIS INTERMEDIATE UPDATE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THAT SAID
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES IN THE NRN PZ5
WATERS SAT AS LOW PRES SLIDES E OF THE WATERS. 06Z GFS/00Z NOGAPS
PLACED GALES JUST N OF THE WATERS W/THE 00Z CMC/UKMET BRINGING
35-40 KT WINDS INTO THE WATERS AND THE 00Z ECMWF 30 KT WINDS. IF
THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
INTRODUCE GALES AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF THE 06Z OPC SURFACE ANALYSIS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED
OVER THE NRN WATERS AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE REST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM
FRONT WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS LATER WED INTO THU...AND SE THROUGH
THE NRN PZ6 WATERS THU AND FRI BEFORE STALLING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3. AT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS A HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL MOVE E AS A CUT-OFF LOW W OF THE WATERS OPENS OUT AND SLIDES
EWD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORM ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THE GFS SWINGS THE UPPER LOW TWD THE NRN CALIFORNIA
WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW ENTIRELY SW OF THE OFFSHORE
REGION. THE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE FALLS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.

HAVE USED THE 00Z GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TO SMOOTH OUT THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MENTIONED
ABOVE...USED A 50/50 MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR
WINDS AND SEAS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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