Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 211911

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 25 2018 - 12Z Thu Mar 01 2018

*** Limited model data available ***

Upper pattern near Alaska next week will feature punctuated
ridging south of the Gulf of Alaska with a westward moving upper
low through the Arctic. This should take a lead storm through the
Bering and then into/through the Gulf with another system entering
the western Bering Sea next Wed/Thu. The models have bounced
around a bit with the track of the first system but opted to lean
on the better clustering of the 00Z GFS/Canadian (and ECMWF)
rather than the much quicker 12Z GFS. After that, ECMWF and GEFS
means diverge in how to handle the next Bering system. Stayed
closer to the ECMWF ensemble mean given continuity, but with
limited confidence.


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