Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 030856
SWOD48
SPC AC 030855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONSENSUS IS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. FOR DAY 4 /THURSDAY/ A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER
THE TN VALLEY AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF VORTICITY MAXIMA AND WHERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING STORMS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY REGION/ PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND DAY 4 THE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PROMOTE EPISODES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW WITH
THIS PATTERN DUE IN LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE WHERE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

..DIAL.. 08/03/2015


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