Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CO INTO TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HAIL...A COUPLE TORNADOES AND WIND POSSIBLE.
A SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WRN
STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH A MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS TROUGH...MULTIPLE AND PROLONGED BOUTS
OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
TX...OK...KS AND CO.

...ERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN OK...
A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED AND BRING 50S F
DEWPOINTS WWD INTO CO. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WILL BE PRESENT AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODEL VARIABILITY DOES EXIST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS INSTABILITY
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS OVER NERN CO.

...MUCH OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE REGION...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE
MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW THAT MAY
BE PRODUCED. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL APPEARS
TO BE OVER SWRN TX WHERE HEATING IS MORE LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2015




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