Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 290547
SWODY2
SPC AC 290546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MID MO
VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY REACHING NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDING WSWWD INTO CNTRL WI AND FAR NRN IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN IA
AND SRN WI VALID AT 00Z/WED SHOW MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO
AROUND 700 MB. IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT...THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
PLAINS...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A BROAD AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY REGIONS COULD HAVE TROUBLE DESTABILIZING. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL CONFINE THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH
IN PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

..BROYLES.. 08/29/2016

$$



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