Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 251740
SWODY2
SPC AC 251739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...NRN AND CNTRL KS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
SWD INTO W CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CO AT 00Z AND A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
MAX MOVING INTO WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL BACK SFC
WINDS ACROSS NEB...WITH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD
INTO NERN CO. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSEWD FROM THE LOW
INTO WRN OK...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY AND RETREATING INTO WRN TX
LATE. THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 00Z PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL.

ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
OVER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...NERN CO...SRN NEB...NRN KS...
BACKING WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD
INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE VERY COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDS
ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THIS AREA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN AND CNTRL
KS. HERE...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION...AND A
MODERATE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.

...W CNTRL TX INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER SWRN INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...NRN WI INTO UPPER MI...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SLY 850 MB FLOW PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/25/2016

$$



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