Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 130558
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...

GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES...RESULTING FROM A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CREST WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
NRN TX IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER NERN TX SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN LA AND SRN
MS.

...SERN OK...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED CP AIR /MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS/ INTO ERN TX
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPANDS EWD THROUGH THE
REGION...RESULTING IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NERN TX...SRN ARKANSAS
AND NRN MS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE SWLY LLJ
INTERACTS WITH E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EVOLVING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME MAY
EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/13/2016

$$


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