Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 022318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 205 NM W OF THE COAST OF GUINEA EXTENDING
FROM 12N18W TO 05N17W...APPROXIMATELY MOVING AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IS THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-12N
BETWEEN 14W-20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
11N49W TO 00N50W AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AND WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE
AREA...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N23W AND CONTINUES TO 02N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 20W-40W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE EXTENDS A TROUGH SW
REACHING THE NE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ENTERS THE NE GULF
NEAR 30N87W TO 28N89W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF 87W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E GULF MAINLY E OF
87W. TO THE W...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE E GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N82W TO 17N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY S OF 20N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 74W. THERE ARE ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 69W-80W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
AFFECTING CUBA JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL
ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLANTIC...MAINLY W OF 76W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N62W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 22N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A SURFACE RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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