Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A
CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 17N. A 1010 MB
LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N118W. CONVERGENT
NE TO E WINDS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W
1010 MB TO LOW NEAR 11N118W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
60 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRES ON
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N123W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
FROM 0500 UTC INDICATED HERNAN IS STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N120W TO 17N125W. THE LAST ACTIVE CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL
HOURS AGO AND WAS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK INTO
MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH WITH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

CONVECTION AROUND THE 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE
SOUTH...INITIATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N130W. CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THIS LOW IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A 0630 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST OF 140W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. AN
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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