Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010958
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
S INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. N WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THE
HIGH WIND EVENT COMMENCES AROUND 0000 UTC...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK BETWEEN 35-40 KT WITHIN 6 HOURS. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED HIGH WIND EVENT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12-13 FT
TUE MORNING NEAR 15N95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 05N94W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W...AND W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 19N. ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 0600-0700 UTC SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W. TRADE WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER W WATERS THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N109W THROUGH 20N123W TO
09N127W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN MANZANILLO
AND MAZATLAN ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND MON.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON...WITH HIGHEST WINDS
IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH BEFORE NOON.
SEAS TO 8 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



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