Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 130 NM S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 NM
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W ALONG 9N87W 8N92W 11N98W
11N111W TO 10N120W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N130W
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 82W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 136W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THIS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.

$$
PAW



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