Tropical Weather Discussion
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184
AXPZ20 KNHC 190231
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2306 UTC Fri Aug 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 15.0N
119.1W at 19/0300 UTC, moving west, or 280 degrees, at 13 kt.
Minimum central pressure is estimated at 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered strong
convection is noted within 150 nm SW, and 60 nm NE semicircles of
the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 115W and 124W. The system
is forecast to reach minimal hurricane intensity by Mon morning.
Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for
additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 07N, moving W
at 15- 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 06N to 09N between 92W and 101W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 08N to 22N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
10N between 110W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 08N100W TO
10N110W where it loses identity. The monsoon trough resumes at
13N121W and extends to 12N124W to 13N130W to 12N136W to 13N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of
the monsoon trough west of 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will prevail across the
Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through Mon
night. A ridge prevails west of the Baja California peninsula.
This synoptic setup will produce a moderate NW breeze through
the weekend to the W of the Baja California Peninsula, except the
pressure gradient will tighten each evening with fresh NW flow
within 90 nm of the Baja coast with 3 to 6 ft seas.

Gulf of California...light to gentle southerly flow will persist
across the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend,
except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will prevail over the
waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh to locally brief and strong N
drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours with seas
building to 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected
through the weekend.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridge extends across the northern waters. Outside
the influence of TS Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of
120W.

$$
AL



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