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000
FXAK69 PAFG 221040
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is minimal in the the short range and has typical amounts
of spread in the mid range and long range.

At 500 hpa, a longwave trough extends from near demarcation point
southwest to the central Aleutians with a weak low centered over
the eastern north slope and northern interior, a 536 dm low
centered just east of Norton Sound and another low 200 nm south of
Adak. Weak ridging at 500 hpa remains in place over southeast
interior.

The upper level low 200 nm south of Adak moves rapidly north and
east to be located near Kodiak Island Saturday morning while the
upper level low near Norton Sound drifts slowly southwest to be
located near Nunivak Island Saturday morning. The resulting
ridging over the southeast interior becomes north south oriented
and drifts to the west to include the central interior and will
create drying downslope flow over the southern portions of the
central and eastern interior south of Fairbanks and along the
northern foothills of the Alaska Range. The more favorable wind
direction will also produce gusty gap winds along and near the
Alaska Range Passes as well as gusty chinook winds along the
northern foothills of the Alaska Range as a weak mountain wave
sets up Saturday. Advisory level winds are not expected as winds
aloft even if driven to near the surface will not be strong enough
to warrant Advisories.

Expect scattered rain showers to the north of Fairbanks as drying
downslope chinook wind flow is lifted over the terrain to the
north of Fairbanks as well as lifted with the proximity of upper
level trough over the northern interior. Snow levels are expected
to remain above 4000 feet over the southern interior summits as
well as the Alaska Range so precip type is expected to remain rain
over Denali NP road as well as southern interior highway summits.
Further north, especially north of the Yukon River snow levels
will remain at or below 2000 feet so expect scattered showers to
be mixed with or remain snow in these areas.

In the western interior and west coast expect the scattered rain
showers and snow showers at higher elevations today to transition
light rain and snow at higher elevations Saturday and Sunday as
the surface reflection of the upper level low in the Aleutians
south of Adak moves north and east into south central Alaska and
the southern interior.

On the north slope the surface high pressure system north of the
coast and stretching from near Barrow to Banks Island will keep
low level on shore flow from the east and northeast into the
weekend. Expect the low ceilings and fog to continue and a chance
of light snow moving into the area as the upper level low over the
northern interior drifts to the north.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 17