416
FXAK69 PAFG 122332
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 PM AKDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will continue through the weekend resulting in a
continuation of dry and warm conditions. Fire weather concerns
will increase over the weekend while areas of smoke and haze
return to many locations as well. Sunday marks the warmest day of
the weekend but we will also see our next system begin to push
onto the west coast with increasing rain chances by Sunday
afternoon. While wet weather will continue across the west, a few
showers and even some thunderstorms can be expected early next
week over the interior as this system continues to move across the
region.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Areas of smoke and haze move back into the interior today and
  tonight as the flow pattern shifts out of the northwest.

- Interior high temps well into the 70`s today and tomorrow with
  some locations reaching 80 by Sunday.

- Winds remain generally light before shifting to the southwest
  and increasing a bit Sunday night into Monday. Increasing gap
  winds will occur through the Alaska Range Monday as well.

- Slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the
  Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country today and tomorrow.

- Better rain chances for much of the interior Monday and Tuesday
  with a potential lull in the action by midweek.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warming and dry today with highs away from the coast in the
  upper 70`s to near 80 by Sunday.

- Increasing southwest flow beginning Sunday with stronger winds
  expected to develop through the Bering Strait.

- Chances for precipitation increasing Sunday afternoon and
  evening with the potential for additional wet weather through
  much of the week ahead.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend and into
  early next week. Highs will be in the 60s on the coast with 70s
  across the Arctic Plain through at least the middle of next
  week.

- Lighter winds through the weekend. Southwest winds increasing
  along the Northwest Arctic Coast Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler and wetter conditions return to the Brooks Range and
  Arctic Slope Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Ridging aloft over northern Alaska continues to push southwards
across the region this afternoon and evening and should be
centered over the interior by Sunday afternoon. While some
convective activity will again develop near the Alaska Rang this
afternoon, that activity may be temporarily suppressed Sunday. As
a result the region will continue to experience warm and mainly
dry conditions through the weekend. However as the ridge descends
on the area, smoke from the ongoing fires across the northwest
interior will continue to infiltrate the rest of the interior
resulting in poor air quality to wrap up the weekend (and
depending on smoke thickness, high temps may be a little lower
than predicted as well).

Beyond the weekend we will likely see a short period of unsettled
weather as a trough that develops over the Bering Sunday manages
to push east into the interior. Precipitation and convection
should actually kick off Sunday afternoon and evening over the KY
delta and parts of the southwest interior as the flow becomes
southwesterly ahead of the trough. Then Monday as the trough
pushes into western Alaska, a piece of shortwave energy is
expected to track into the central Interior which will not only
increase coverage of showers and storms, it will also result in a
gap wind situation through the Alaska Range passes.

Temps will come back down a few degrees Monday and Tuesday as the
main trough aloft passes through. Afterwards things become a
little less clear as models handle the rebuilding upper ridge
differently. (See extended discussion for more on what may happen
later next week).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure continues to evolve across the interior and into
the north which will bring warming and drying to much of the
region. We fully anticipate temperatures to reach the upper
70s/low 80s and RH diminishing to below 30 percent for most areas;
with Sunday being the hottest and driest day for much of the
interior. By-and- large light winds should be largely prevalent
after the westerly winds diminish Saturday across the Kobuk
Valley, with much wetter southwest flow in place across the west
into the week starting late Sunday. The boundary layer will favor
instability over the next few days, with thunderstorm development
anticipated across the southwest Saturday into Sunday, with
thunderstorms development likely across the White Mountains and
Yukon Sunday into Monday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No impactful hydrologic concerns are expected over the next
several days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Models continue to agree on the early portions of the extended
period as some showery and unsettled weather is expected through
at least Tuesday with a weak trough undercutting the dominant
ridge. However differences continue to be magnified for the later
stages of the period, primarily with respect to the location and
strength of the upper ridge. At this time we will still favor a
general model blend with a forecast for mild conditions with a
week upper ridge over the area and a weakening low over the Gulf
helping pull some moisture in under the ridge. This should allow
for at least some isolated shower and thunderstorm potential,
especially near and over areas of higher terrain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856-858.
&&

$$

Laney/Park(Fire Weather)