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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM