Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1154 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING ON THE RADAR. WITH THE FRONT VERY WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR W AND FILLING IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO). A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE HARDER WHILE THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z WITH POPS 40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK- BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB (LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STMS BUT NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS- PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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