Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260809 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VLY CROSSING THE MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS THE TRAILING SFC FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. WELL MIXED AIRMASS AND A COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL AREAS...W/LIGHTER WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH WEST OF THE BAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). OTHERWISE, A VERY PLEASANT, MILD FALL DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THIS EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN THE U30S TO NEAR 40 INLAND...LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE YIELD HIGHS U60S-L70S MON. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AS H85 TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 15-17C. BREEZY WAA (SOUTHWEST FLOW) MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY, SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND...MID TO UPPER 70S EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PREFRONTAL WAA WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. EARLY MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CONTINUED TO LAG TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE WITH ONSET OF POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW, DEEPENING LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH- NORTHEAST ALL POINT IN THAT DIRECTION...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WITH RAIN CHCS WED MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHC 30-40% POP ON WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT...QPF WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE U60S-L70S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES (75-800 ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BREEZY BY MID MORNING. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOWERY AS THE FRONT GETS PULLED APART BY THE TIME IT TRAVERSES THE AREA.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND THIS AFTN.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-634-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630- 631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD FIRE WEATHER...

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