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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HI PRES OVR THE REGION WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AFTN
UNDR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEWPTS RANGED THRU THE 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. THE HI WILL
SLIDE OFFSHR TNGT INTO THU MORNG...RESULTING IN A DRY FCST UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NGT
WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ