Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301948 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front then approaches from the west...crossing the area Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant lo of Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie centered over extreme ern SC...with a trof of lo pres over the Mid Atlc. Moisture continues to stream nwrd this aftn/eveng as the area sits in the right-entrance-region of an upr-level jet streak. Moderate to heavy rain is psbl at times...so maintained mention in the HWO. Altho many areas will just receive light amounts...some areas may receive an additional inch of rain. Forcing for ascent weakens tngt as the best moisture pulls offshore...so pops decrease to slight chance-chance everywhere ovrngt. Otws...cloudy skies will prevail with some breaks in the clouds psbl over the Piedmont. Temps will bottom out to near normal readings...lows in the the mid 60s most spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short term period will remain unsettled with frequent chances for rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo of Post- Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding ne up the Carolina cst each day in the period...with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass despite meager lift. For now...best chances of rain will primarily be over srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu will be in the slight chance-chance range. Temps will be near normal...with highs avgg in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging thru the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/ approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon. Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers persist across the region with every TAF site recording rain at the onset of the 18z TAFs. Conditions generally MVFR, with obs bouncing between scattered and broken around 700 to 1200 ft AGL. This has made for quite a challenging TAF forecast. Based on persistence and the air mass over the region, have continued with the trend of MVFR/IFR conditions through the afternoon, with some increased confidence for widespread IFR conditions overnight at all TAF sites. The exception may be ORF where MVFR conditions are favored. Regardless, expect poor aviation conditions overnight. Showers begin to push toward the coast early this evening, becoming more scattered across the southeast half of the forecast area through the overnight period. While conditions favor stratus, expect fog to develop mainly along the coast reducing visibilities to less than 3 miles at times. Weak pressure gradient results in light and variable winds overnight. Expect conditions to improve by mid morning Tuesday with MVFR and VFR conditions returning to the TAF sites. Post tropical storm Bonnie lingers over the Carolinas through Wednesday, resulting in ongoing unsettled weather conditions. Periods of rain and MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. A brief reprieve from the rain is forecast Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. A cold front then approaches the area of Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and ceilings. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt. Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC. Additional rainfall is expected through tomorrow, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 6. 8.59" 2003 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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