-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
641
FXUS61 KAKQ 031620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1220 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated afternoon showers are possible over southern portions of
the area today, but otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected
through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north, with
lower humidity expected. Low pressure along the southeast coast
drifts north Sunday, potentially bringing showers and a few storms
to the southern half of the area. Typical summertime conditions
are expected next week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers
and storms and seasonable heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1220 PM EDT Thursday...

- A few showers or isolated storms are possible this afternoon,
  mainly across the southern half of the area.

The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper low (~550 dm),
centered across NW Quebec, with the axis of the upper trough
extending SW into the Great Lakes/OH Valley (with yesterday`s
portion offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast). At the sfc, a weak
sfc trough/stalled remnant frontal boundary is in place from the
southern New England coast SSW into the VA/NC piedmont.

For today, the upper low drops SE across Quebec, and moves into
northern New England tonight. The weak boundary in place over
the local area is expected to drift east and weaken offshore of
the local area later this morning. Meanwhile, a stronger cold
front out ahead of the upper trough drops SE through the
eastern Great Lakes and pushes into the northern mid-Atlantic
region late this aftn and evening. Will note that PWAT values
have dropped considerably compared to the past several days,
currently being analyzed at ~1.20" over NW sections of the FA,
and ~1.50" in the far SE (compared to >2.00"). Therefore,
expect mainly dry conditions this afternoon. Recent hi-res
guidance continues to show the potential for isolated
showers/storms this afternoon, mainly S of I-64. Have increased
PoPs slightly to account for this possibility. Highs today will
mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dew pts dropping
into the mid- upper 60s N, while remaining in the lower 70s SE.
Any showers/tstms this aftn should rapidly dissipate towards
sunset, with a mostly clear sky tonight as sfc high pressure
builds SSE from the Great Lakes into the local area. Lows
tonight avg in the mid to upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along
the SE coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, warm, and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July
  holiday into the first part of the weekend.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper low moves off the northern New England
coast, allowing high pressure to settle in from the N. Highs
temperatures range from the mid/upper 80s to around 90 F, with
sunny to mostly sunny skies and light onshore flow. Dew points
range through the 60s (potentially down into the upper 50s at
peak heating across the northern 1/2 of the CWA), so it should
feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear and comfortable Friday
night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s SE
coast to lower 60s NW).

On Saturday, sfc high pressure will be centered across the NE
and mid-Atlantic region, with a broad upper low in place from
the eastern Gulf, across Florida and off the SE US coast. While
this system has a medium (50%) probability of taking on some
tropical/subtropical characteristics, it will be rather
difficult given weak flow aloft for this system to make its way
N into the local area. Remaining dry Saturday with with highs
again in the mid 80s coast to near 90F well inland with d

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A chance of showers across southeast VA and northeast NC
  Sunday. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and warm.

- Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with
  afternoon/evening storm chances.


The models do slowly lift the SE low pressure system north on
Sunday, the 03/00Z ECMWF lifting it farther north compared to
the GFS later Sunday, but all guidance keeps the system weak
(and the ECMWF brings it inland). The main effects will be for a
gradual increase in humidity on Sunday, with chc PoPs into the
southern portion of the FA. Higher humidity and seasonable WX is
expected Monday- Tuesday, along with chances of diurnal
showers/tstms well in advance of another cold front moving into
the Great Lakes. The aforementioned low or trough axis lingers
offshore into early next week before moving off to our NE
midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm back into the lower
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Local IFR-LIFR in low stratus and fog, through ~13Z, then
mainly VFR today. Winds are generally light and variable, and
will become WNW at 5-10kt inland, while being light enough for
onshore flow near the coast this aftn. Slight chance of an
afternoon shower or storm across southern VA and NE NC, but
chances/areal coverage are much too low to account for in the
terminal forecasts at this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions tonight through Sunday AM as drier air
builds into the region behind the cold front. A few showers/tstms
possible by Sunday, mainly south, and all areas Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions today and through the weekend.

Benign conditions continue today as high pressure slides in behind a
cold front. Latest obs reflect westerly winds at 5-10kt. Seas are 2-
3ft and waves are around 1ft. Once high pressure slides overhead
later this morning, winds become lighter and variable. A sea breeze
looks to develop this afternoon. By the evening, light winds become
southwesterly. Another cold front crosses the waters early Friday
morning. Winds turn to the NNW behind it and increase to 10-15kt.
Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20kt Fri morning, especially in the
lower Ches Bay. Winds then turn onshore Fri evening and remain
onshore through the weekend. Wind speeds will typically be 5-10kt,
but will likely see slight increases in the evenings. Next chance
for SCAs would be Sunday evening with SE winds, but looks rather
marginal so far (~15kt with gusts ~20kt). Seas will remain at 2-3ft
today through the weekend. Waves will be 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AC