Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201102 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 702 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc hi pres continues to sit invof FA through today as ridge aloft amplifies over the ern CONUS. A very weak frontal boundary will settle S through the area this morning...turning winds to the N. Otherwise...starting out w/ patchy/areas of FG for the early morning hours (VSBYs restricted to 1/2SM or less in some places). That FG quickly dissipates by 13-14Z/20...leading to another sunny and seasonably warm day. Highs in the m-u70s...l70s right along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pres sfc-aloft remains anchored invof FA through Sat...then slowly shifts off the coast Sat night-Sun. Other than possible patchy/areas of FG (by late) tonight and again Sat night...dry- continued seasonably warm wx expected Sat-Sun. Lows tonight in the mainly 45-50F the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. A bit more cloudiness possible by Sun afternoon as the low level flow becomes more SE ahead of the next cold front (which will be entering the OH-TN valleys) - so may become partly sunny vs mostly sunny. Lows Sat night in the u40s-l50s inland to the m50s at the coast. Highs Sun ranging through the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain chances finally return to the forecast by Monday. A slow- moving longwave trough pushes E toward the mid Atlantic region early next week. Rain chances expected to hold off until late Mon/Mon night across the piedmont...then into Tuey along and east of I-95. Temps in the remain mild ahead of the front w/ lows Sun night in the 50s...highs Mon in the 70s. Sfc low pressure deepening over the Southeast States Mon night will get absorbed into a larger upper level trough digging over the Midwest and as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley on Tue. Rain will be ongoing as a cold front (extending from NY to NE GA) is pushed ewd by the incoming upper trough. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night with showers lingering into Wed. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond which is common. Upper trough swings through the region Wed/Wed night. Highs near normal Tue (70-75F) with widespread rain present. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed near normal to around 5 degrees below normal with readings in the mid-upper 60s. Much cooler Wed night/Thu with lows generally in the 40s (around 50F immediate coast) and highs of 60-65F. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc hi pres remains invof FA attm (and through Sat). Patchy FG and ST early this morning...otherwise VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF forecast period. Another potential for patchy/areas of FG by late tonight/early Sat morning. Sfc hi pres slides farther offshore Sun...w/ a cold front expected to push across the local area late Mon through Tue (resulting in at least periodic sub- VFR conditions in RA/lowering CIGs likely. && .MARINE... A large area of surface high pressure over the region will allow for generally benign conditions over the waters for the next several days. A weak cold front will push southeast and off the NJ coast by later this morning. This feature will allow for a modest increase in winds to 10-15 knots later this morning as winds shift to the north. Waves are only expected to build to around 2 feet for the Bay/lower James, and to remain around 3 feet for the coastal waters. Surface high pressure re-establishes its control over the region Friday night through Sunday with waves mainly 1 foot and seas of 2 to 3 feet. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front approaches from the west on Monday and slowly crosses the waters late on Tuesday. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front Monday into early Tuesday, and strong NNW winds behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most or all of the area during this period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB/LKB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.