Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311954 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 354 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4 PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT. COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM/JAO MARINE...SAM/DAP

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