Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180137 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 937 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND. THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT 00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...LSA/AJZ SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...DAP/JAB MARINE...BMD

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