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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND.

THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A
NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS
MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD