Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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887 FXUS61 KAKQ 090054 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 754 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING... THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED... IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT). HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS/DAP MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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