Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311816 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INCRS CLDNS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF FA. PREV DISCUSSION... MID-MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST...AND A PROGRESSIVE BAROCLINIC WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BNDRY. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES. TDA BEGINS COOL AND MCLDY (W/ EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW PIEDMONT)...WITH A CLEARING LINE TRACKING FROM SSW-NNE AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER NE. INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25 IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO CLOSE TO THE CST. FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY- WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE REGION IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT...SEEING LOTS OF CU...3K - 5K FT...ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AREAS. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE DAY TIME HEATING KICKS IN. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR LEVELS TOWARD SUNRISE SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH 18Z TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS FOR COASTAL SITES...EXPECT RIC...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN REACHING IFR LEVELS. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER 6Z AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 12Z...BUT THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORM IS GONE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
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&& .MARINE... QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST SHORT DURATION SCA OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO LOW END/MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE NNW TONIGHT, BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR KHAT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THIS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY POTENT MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. SCA OVR NRN CSTL WTRS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY BEFORE THE GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WATERS, WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB- GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ESS MARINE...MAS/MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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