Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030120 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 920 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING COLD FRONT APPRCHG MTS WITH SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF IT EAST OF THE MTS. CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS HAVING A TUFF TIME SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST AS IT HITS THE CAP OVR THE FA ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF HTNG. EVEN THE LONE PULSE TSTRM THAT MOVD ACROSS MECKLENBURG CNTY DSPTD FAIRLY QUICKLY. LATEST MODELS BRING MAIN CD FRNT ACROSS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY LIMITED MSTR GIVEN THE AVBL WARM AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN A LATE NIGHT FROPA. 30 POP NRN & WRN CNTYS....20 POP ELSEWHERE. WARM & MUGGY. LOWS 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WED/THU...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA. WILL SEE A LOWER RAIN CHANCE ON FRIDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER, WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT POP GIVEN PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS AND LWR TEMPS AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC. FOR FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...WITH THE FRONT STILL W OF THE AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LGT S/SW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS SAT AS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA. POPS RANGE FM 50% NW TO 20% FAR SE. LO TEMPS FRI NGT IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S WITH HI TEMPS SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. FOR SUN...INCREASED POPS TO 50-60% AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO SRN VA/NC. A (LWR) CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA CST AND WAVES OF LO PRES PASSING ALONG THE FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S SUN AND MON WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO IMMEDIATE THREAT FROM CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND REACHES SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RUN BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KFT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTN... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SRN PORTIONS. THIS MAY IMPACT ECG AND ORF IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS WILL BE PSBL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC...LEADING TO SLY WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT OVR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. A WEAKENING FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...VEERING WINDS FM SW TO N. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SHIFT FROM N MIDDAY WED TO THE E/SE WED NGT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NGT/SAT. NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVR THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 101 F) ORF: 97/1993 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 99 F) SBY: 97/1980 (TIED RECORD) TODAY MARKS THE FIRST TIME RIC HAS HIT 100 SINCE JULY 8. LAST TIME RIC HIT AT LEAST 101 WAS WHEN THEY HIT 102 ON 7/8/2012. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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