Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290630 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 230 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly moves across the region through early this morning. Weak high pressure builds in from the north this afternoon as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Area of shras/tstms mnly confined to just N of the FA border...fm far nrn VA to the cntrl Delmarva. Hi res-nr term guid keep most of the shras/tstms fm the Nrn Neck VA to the lwr MD ern shore through 06-09z/29. POPs 30-60% in those areas...while mostly aob 20% elsw. Kept mention of patchy fog lt away fm the rivers/bay/ocn. Most lows 65-70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in the low to mid 60`s. Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid- Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s. The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday. Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area. For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front now approaching the area and will push through RIC and SBY over the next few hrs, and will then stall near the ne NC coast later this morning. Area of showers now out of RIC, but could see some fog development there in a few hrs, with low clouds and fog possible at the other sites as well, mainly from 08-12Z. Improving conditions after 12Z and all sites should be VFR by 14Z at the latest. Winds will turn to the NNW inland and NNE closer to the coast with speeds only 5-10 KT. Due to the stalled front, isolated showers/tstms possible later this aftn across far southern VA/ne NC but chance is far too low to include in TAFS. The stalled front will remain the focus for at least isolated showers/tstms across mainly southern portions of the forecast region tonight through Fri, and guidance has trended a little wetter even as early as tonight, though confidence in this is low. Generally, expect a chance for showers/tstms mainly during the aftn/evening hrs through Sunday. && .MARINE... Winds generally 10 KT or less early this morning as the (weak) cold front approaches. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes toward the OH Valley later today, with low level surface wind flow likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate nearshore into the evening hrs. A general WNW flow takes over by later tonight, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area late in the weekend into early next week. && .CLIMATE... RIC now up to 7.81" for the month of June through 2am this morning (including the showers that brought additional rain early this morning). This makes 2016 the 7th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). Also, the May-June total at RIC now stands at 17.60" and is the 2nd wettest (1972 is wettest with 17.69"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB/MAM CLIMATE...AKQ

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