Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260153 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 953 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tracks north of the area through Sunday, then slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Quiet wx eve acrs FA as drying NE flo brings in sloly lwrg dewpts. Remaining mnly SKC (other than psbl sct-bkn sc invof cstl SE VA-NE NC). Lows mnly fm the u50s to m60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating. E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again. The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast. Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east. Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States during the 00Z TAF period with mainly SKC. Still some MVFR ceilings at ECG intermittently but satellite and models show improving trend and should end by 01z. Have IFR fog at SBY 09-12z where extensive IFR occurred this morning and winds will be the calmest. Elsewhere there is presently little confidence in IFR mainly due to winds. OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area...there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms begin late Monday and continuing through the rest of the week. The best chances for precipitation will be through Tuesday night with lower chances following a cold frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Northeast winds prevailed over the marine area late Saturday. Winds and some seas were approaching SCA conditions in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters but models indicate that winds will slowly diminish during the course of the evening. Generally quiet marine conditions can be expected for the next several days. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with diminishing through Sunday. A Lee side trough develops late Monday with winds turning to the south and southwest. These winds continue through Tuesday ahead of a cold front which approaches from the northwest. && .HYDROLOGY... The James River at Bremo Bluff has fallen below flood stage and will lower to below action stage overnight. A flood warning is in effect for the James River at Richmond Westham. It is forecast to reach around 12.5 feet overnight and to fall back to below flood stage late Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details. && .CLIMATE... June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...ALB/JAO AVIATION...JEF MARINE...LSA/JAO HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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