Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220210 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 910 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM ERN NEW ENG TO THE MDATLC RGN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...WK SFC LO PRES TAKING SHAPE E OF GA/SC CST AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NGT. CLDNS BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SCNTRL VA FM NC. TEMPS HAVE INITIALLY DROPPED TO OR BLO FREEZING IN SOME PLACES (INLAND). W/ BKN-OVC CLDNS STARTING TO ARRIVE...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGS F FM FVX TO THE NC/VA BORDER. ALSO...PATCHY LGT RA STARTING TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SRN NC. PROBLEMS OF THE NGT ARE THE INCRSG CLDNS (AND HOW TEMPS RESPOND) AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE LO TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE ACRS THE NNE (WHERE CLDNS SLOWER TO ARRIVE)...READINGS LIKELY TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL DEGS F. WHILE TEMPS ACRS NW PIEDMONT HAVE SETTLED BLO FREEZING...LAMP TEMP GUID ONLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO ARND 32F AS CLDNS AND EVENTUALLY PCPN ARRIVES LT. ONLY VERY LGT AMTS OF PCPN XPCD...BUT PSBLY JUST ENOUGH FOR VERY LGT ICING (-ZR) ON UNTREATED/COLDER EXPOSED SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL RMN IN PLACE. ELSW...WHILE A BIT OF IP PSBL A BEGINNING OF PCPN..ESP ACRS INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN VA-NE NC...XPCG TEMPS (IF THEY HAVE FALLEN TO/JUST BLO FREEZING THIS EVE) WILL RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING BY LT TNGT...SO NO ICING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LO TEMPS IN THE M/U20S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...TO U20S TO U30S ELSW. WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID- UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE... 7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS UPDATE. AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU. SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048- 049-060-061. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...DAP/WRS MARINE...MAS/WRS

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