Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311057 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 657 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INCRS CLDNS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF FA. PREV DISCUSSION... EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES. TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC) AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC). INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25 IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO CLOSE TO THE CST. FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY- WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN. && .MARINE... GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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