Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241904 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 304 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS). HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...
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WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE (DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/ CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW. SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED (WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...DAP MARINE...ALB FIRE WEATHER...MPR

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