Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250745 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC COLD FRONT NOW CLEAR OF THE CWA, AND EXTENDING FROM THE SE NC COASTAL PLAIN SW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE, LGT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS. ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N-NW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE (TD`S INTO THE 40S AND 50S) AS OF 07Z, AND WE WILL SEE THIS DRIER AIR BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN. A VARIABLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY TODAY, WITH POPS REMOVED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, WHERE A FEW SHRAS COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT NIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S. LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM, INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z. HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS. A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.