Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012006 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY... MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A 20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR 90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JEF MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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