Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 260153
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
High pressure tracks north of the area through Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet wx eve acrs FA as drying NE flo brings in sloly lwrg dewpts.
Remaining mnly SKC (other than psbl sct-bkn sc invof cstl SE VA-NE
NC). Lows mnly fm the u50s to m60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.
The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.
Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.
Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as
upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into
Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then
weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining
POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs
Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s
Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States during the 00Z
TAF period with mainly SKC. Still some MVFR ceilings at ECG
intermittently but satellite and models show improving trend and
should end by 01z. Have IFR fog at SBY 09-12z where extensive IFR
occurred this morning and winds will be the calmest. Elsewhere there
is presently little confidence in IFR mainly due to winds.
OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area...there will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms begin late Monday and
continuing through the rest of the week. The best chances for
precipitation will be through Tuesday night with lower chances
following a cold frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday.
Northeast winds prevailed over the marine area late Saturday. Winds
and some seas were approaching SCA conditions in the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters but models indicate that winds will slowly
diminish during the course of the evening.
Generally quiet marine conditions can be expected for the next
several days. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with
diminishing through Sunday. A Lee side trough develops late Monday
with winds turning to the south and southwest. These winds continue
through Tuesday ahead of a cold front which approaches from the
The James River at Bremo Bluff has fallen below flood stage and
will lower to below action stage overnight.
A flood warning is in effect for the James River at Richmond
Westham. It is forecast to reach around 12.5 feet overnight and
to fall back to below flood stage late Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").