Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290220 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1020 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW 15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5- 10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10- 15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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