Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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237 FXUS61 KAKQ 261309 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 909 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through Monday. A weak frontal boundary over the Delmarva this morning lifts back to the north late today into Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated forecast for current conditions, weak sfc boundary appears to be stalling from King William to the Middle Peninsula and on into the lower Bay. Onshore winds...and BKN-OVC low stratus settling along and N of the boundary. Temperatures avg 45-50 F N of the boundary...while mild/mainly partly cloudy conditions prevail elsewhere with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Have adjusted highs down a few degrees on the eastern shore with expectation that temperatures struggle through the low-mid 50s this aftn and in the upper 40s/around 50 F coastal eastern shore. Dense fog not expected there, but VSBYS of 1 to 2SM and perhaps some drizzle to prevail through early aftn. Winds have just shifted to the NE at Norfolk Airport and Newport News as well though the extent of low clouds there is more uncertain as will be highs this aftn (lowered hourly values through the next few hrs but will still keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s as the winds are expected to gradually shift back to the S/SE later in the aftn. Later today, weakening low pressure (sfc-aloft) will continue to track NE toward the Great Lakes today...pushing a weak low level boundary from the W closer to the FA. Only SLGT forcing aloft w/ this system...which will likely limit pcpn coverage as it draws closer late this aftn. The maritime low level air will be difficult/slow to dislodge invof NE portions of the FA into this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere...mild w/ VRB clouds. Upper level s/w brushes NW zones late and will have a 15-30% PoPs confined to the NW after 21Z. Highs likely stuck to upper 40s/lower 50s coastal eastern shore, and in the 50s in low clouds over the remainder of the eastern shore...60s across much of the north/northeast zones W of the Bay from louisa to Tappahannock, and in the low to mid 70s a little farther south in central/srn VA- NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lows Sun night in the u40s-around 50F on the ern shore to the l-m50s elsewhere...w/ mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy SE to mostly cloudy on the lower MD ern shore and along-W of I 95. Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. VRB clouds Mon w/ PoPs mainly aob 20%, though will have a small area of 30% PoPs across the far N through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to Sunday...into the m-u70s over much of VA and interior NE NC to the u60s-l70s near the coast and over the eastern shore. Upper level ridging to keep it mainly dry and continued warm Mon night with lows in the 50s. Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F if rain holds off. There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the region and off the coast Tue night...maintaining slgt chc or chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed thru most of Thu, as high pressure builds in fm the N. Chance for more showers and possible tstms then Thu night into at least the first part of Sat, as low pressure and another assoc cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s Thu and Fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s Sat. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc boundary has slid S through portions of the ern shore the past several hours...w/ onshore winds and development of ST invof SBY. The boundary currently making an attempt to make it SSW to RIC/PHF/ORF...though likely to stop there by mid/late morning. Continued IFR CIGS/VSBYS expected invof SBY through this afternoon before potentially lifting (slowly). Mainly VFR conditions expected otherwise through the 12Z TAF period. Front approaches slowly from the W late today/tonight and may result in ISOLD SHRAS at RIC/SBY. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across the region through mid-week. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible late overnight and into the early morning hours primarily due to low ceilings. Scattered showers becoming increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. && .MARINE... Updated to increase wave heights to 3-4 ft a little farther S for coastal waters as boundary has slipped S to around Cape Charles Light with E/NE winds of ~15 KT (still doesn`t appear that any headlines will be needed). Otherwise, relatively benign marine conditions expected the next several days with no headlines anticipated. A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the eastern shore and mid Bay today, before lifting back north of that area tonight. Low pressure and its associated cold front will track from the srn Plains ENE and across the local area Tue into early Wed morning. Other than winds turning to the E or SE for today into this evening, expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less tonight thru Tuesday. As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru Wed morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less. High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE winds 15 kt or less. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft thru midweek. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB/JDM

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