Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 020146
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
946 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
A cold front crosses the region this evening into Saturday morning.
The front will then remain nearly stationary across North Carolina
from Saturday afternoon into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast updated to alter Pops based on latest radar trends. Best
chance of rain will remain over Eastern areas tngt (chance-likely
pops) with slight chance pops elsewhere. Risk of severe weather
has greatly diminished with the loss of daytime heating but still
could see some gusty winds and small hail with the strongest
Latest surface analysis places the frontal boundary over the
Piedmont. A warm, moist, and unstable air mass remains over the
local area. KAKQ radar depicts a line of heavy rain with intense
lightning along a line from Isle of Wight County northeastward to
the Maryland Eastern Shore. In the wake of this line, outflows and
cool pools have helped develop additional showers and
thunderstorms along Interstate 85 in south central Virginia
northward to Richmond. All this activity will continue to push
eastward through the afternoon, with additional scattered activity
expected to develop in the unstable air mass through late today.
Thereafter, attention turns to the approaching cold front. Upper
level flow kicks around to the west early evening as the cold front
drops into the region. Westerly flow and limited forcing will begin
to limit the overall coverage into the Piedmont and central
Virginia, but still anticipate solid chance to likely POPs north and
east of Richmond. Air mass remains unstable ahead of the front, with
deep layer shear progged around 30 to 35 knots. Strong winds, hail,
and locally heavy rainfall are still possible. SPC maintains a
slight risk for severe weather. POPs begin to taper off as the front
pushes toward the coast and deepest moisture pushes offshore. High
resolution guidance drops showers along the coast before dissipating
as they move offshore. Sky begins to clear inland late tonight,
remaining partly cloudy near the coast. Lows in the upper 60`s to
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Potent upper wave lifts into southeast Canada with westerly flow
over the Mid-Atlantic region. The front stalls in the vicinity of
northern North Carolina in the zonal flow. Deepest moisture pushes
south of the local area Saturday. Will keep chance POPs across
northern North Carolina where models depict best forcing along the
front and deepest moisture. Highs Saturday generally in the mid 80`s
(cooler near the coast) under a mostly sunny sky north to partly
cloudy south. Wavy front lifts northward slightly Saturday night as
the southeast Canadian wave lifts northeast and another wave
approaches from the west. POPs increase to solid chance to likely
POPs across the far south. Clouds increase with a mostly cloudy sky
expected. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.
The wavy front will linger in the vicinity of the North
Carolina/Virginia border through Monday in westerly flow aloft.
Several waves are expected to ride along the frontal boundary as
high precipitable water air pools along the front. Expect period of
showers Sunday and Monday, especially across southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina. Timing each wave is difficult at this
point, so will refrain from likely POPs at this time. However, do
expect much of the southern area to receive rainfall. Better chances
for showers and thunderstorms expected areawide Monday afternoon as
a more potent wave approaches from the west, amplifying the flow and
lifting the front northward. The potential still exists for periods
of heavy rainfall, with minor flooding possible. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the low to mid 80`s. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s
to low 70`s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary shifts northward through the area during the
evening of Independence Day as a trough drops into the Great Lakes
and a ridge builds over the East Coast. The front then drops back
into the region Tuesday, and then pushes south of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. By later in the week, a weak trough lingers
well off the coast as a mid/upper ridge becomes centered over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and extends up into the
Ohio Valley. PoPs will generally be diurnally driven Monday and
Tuesday, averaging 30-50% across the area. PoPs drop to less than
15% by Wednesday as drier air builds in from the north. A shortwave
trough dropping in from the NW could trigger some afternoon/evening
showers/tstms by Thursday, but confidence with respect to details is
low at this range (a week in advance). Forecast high temperatures
are generally in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday-Wednesday, and then trend
into the mid 80s to around 90 Thursday-Friday. Lows will average in
the mid 60s to low 70s.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sct tstms contg to develop early this aftn...mnly in ern VA.
Additional shras/tstms xpcd through the aftn/eve. Went w/ mnly
VCTS given isold/sct coverage. Otrw...sct-bkn layered cldns...cigs
mnly 5-10kft. Cdfnt crosses the region tonight shifting winds to
more NNW by 12Z/02. Boundary stalls acrs far srn VA/nrn NC on
Sat...may be a focus for at least isold aftn/eve tstms at
PHF/ORF/ECG. Lo pres tracks acrs the rgn Sun into Mon with periods
of IFR and/or MVFR conds in numerous shras/sct tstms.
A cold front drops into the area this evening, and pushes
through later tonight, with high pressure building into the area
Saturday. A brief NNW surge is expected in the wake of the front
early Saturday morning. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected,
but a brief period of wind gusts up to 20kt is possible over the
Bay. The wind becomes NE and gradually diminishes Saturday. The
front drops south of the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then
lifts through the area Sunday night into Monday. A weak front
approaches from the NW Monday night and drops into the area Tuesday.
Seas average 2-3ft through the period, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.
A brief period of 2-3ft waves is possible in the Bay Saturday
morning with the aforementioned surge.
June 2016 goes down as the 7th wettest June on record at 7.81
inches. The May-June total at RIC ended at 17.60 inches, making
the two month period the 2nd wettest on record. The 1st was 1972
with 17.69 inches.