Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240157 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 857 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains well offshore tonight as low pressure slides off the Florida Peninsula. On Friday, the region will remain in between a cold front approaching from the west and low pressure off the southeast coast. The front crosses the local area late Saturday, with high pressure returning for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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...845 pm update...earlier forecast in good shape overall. 01Z temps within a few degrees of overnight lows across the SE quarter of the CWA, as skies are clear, and winds have become calm. Have thus lowered mins a couple degrees most of the area away from the water, as temps should stabilize or perhaps rise a little overnight, as a weak southerly flow develops. Tweaked hourly temps as well due to the above. Also bumped up POPs about 10 percent across NE NC, where some hi-res guidance suggests spotty showers possible after 06Z. However, POPs remain below slight chance levels, as even hi-res guidance has been somewhat inconsistent. Rest of forecast looks good, including location and timing of patchy fog. ...Previous Discussion...Latest sfc analysis indicating sfc low pressure off the east coast of Florida, with a weak/inverted sfc trough extending NNE up to the NC coast. Split flow aloft making for relatively light winds/weak steering flow aloft. Very warm today with readings near record highs in the 70s (see climate section below). Fairly high dew pts in the 50s and a light southerly flow have allowed for some developing cumulus inland with skies averaging partly to mostly sunny. Expect dry weather and a mild night tngt (lows in the 50s) with high pres staying offshore and low pres passing well south of the local area. With decent low-level moisture and light winds, could see some patchy fog develop, especially across interior southeast VA and northeast NC, though will mention patchy fog into south central and central VA as well. Conditions Fri will be similar to those of today, with southerly flow and temps climbing into the mid-upper 70s inland and in the mid 60s to lower 70s at the coast (cooler here with winds shifting a bit more to SE rather than SSW). There may be a little more in the way of cloud cover but do not anticipate any rain with minimal forcing. Again see climate section below for the day`s records (which will be more difficult to break as they are warmer than today).
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm and partly cloudy Fri night with lows in the 50s to possibly around 60 F in the warmest locales. Latest 12z/23 models remain in good agreement handling a cold front moving east from the OH Valley Fri night, reaching the Appalachians Sat morning, and pushing through the CWA Sat aftn to early evening. Mid/upper level trough progged to be located over the western Great lakes at 12Z/Sat...and moving NE to Ontario through the day. Potent mid level shortwave looks to become somewhat sheared out as it crosses the Mtns and moves through the local area Sat aftn/evening, with some dry slotting moving in rather quickly late Sat aftn/Sat evening from the SW. SPC day 3 outlook highlights northern 1/2 of the CWA in a marginal risk for for severe thunderstorms in association with a low CAPE/high shear environment. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts, but attm there is uncertainty over coverage of convection due to the potential dry slot. High temps Sat will range from the upper 70s southeast to the lower 70s N and NW where precip will arrive earlier and be of higher coverage. Lingered a chc for showers into the early evening near the cost, otherwise turning sharply colder Sat night with lows in the 30s inland to lower 40s southeast zones. Dry/mostly sunny and much cooler Sunday with breezy WNW winds diminishing by mid aftn from SW to NE as high pressure builds in from the WSW. Highs will actually be close to normal for a change, ranging from the upper 50s south to the lower 50s across the NE. Very dry aftn with dew pts into the teens and RH values mainly 20-25%, though winds may diminish enough to keep Fire Wx threat from being too bad. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc hi pres drifts over the FA Sun night...resulting in mainly SKC and chilly conditions. Quick moving low pressure tracks from the OH Valley Mon across the FA Mon night w/ increasing cloudiness and PoPs (30-50%). Another warm up begins Tue and continues through Wed as sfc hi pres sets up off the coast...and return S flow develops. Mild Tue w/ a frontal boundary lingering over (srn) portions of the FA (keeping VRB clouds/Mostly cloudy conditions w/ PoPs 25-45%. A warm front lifting through the FA Tue night/early Wed may clip the region w/ clouds and low PoPs (10-20%). Warm/possibly breezy Wed ahead of approaching cold front from the W. Models push that front through the region late Wed/Wed night w/ another potential for at least SCT RASH. Drying/cooler by Thu. Lows Sun night from the l30s inland to the u30s-around 40F SE. Highs Mon in the 55-60F on the eastern shore to the l-m60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs Tue in the u50s-l60s on the eastern shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Low Tue night mainly in the l-m50s. Highs Wed in the 60s on the eastern shore to the 70s elsewhere. Highs Thu mainly from 55-60F. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions across the region with only a few lingering cumulus at 00Z. Winds are generally S at 5-10 kt and are expected to go light and variable during the overnight. Still expecting fog development overnight, mainly late towards sunrise due to mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s. A brief period of 1-2 miles fog is likely for TAF sites except for ECG. Would not be surprised to see some locally dense fog, especially away from the coast. Fog is expected to dissipate generally after 12Z and we will return to VFR conditions. Winds will remain light out of the SE to S tonight through Friday afternoon. Outlook: Besides early morning fog and stratus, expect mainly VFR conditions through early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with a cold front Saturday afternoon and into early evening. Dry/VFR conditions return for Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be gusty out of the WNW at times on Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions will once again be possible late Monday and into Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres will remain centered well off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Fri as lo pres meanders off the FL coast...and nrn stream energy remains well N of the region from the Great Lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Sfc hi pres will slide farther offshore Fri night into Sat as a cold front pushes from the Ohio Valley Fri night then ewd across the mountains Sat. Meanwhile, the srn stream low will gradually lift newd well off the SE coast. A SSE wind will remain aob 15kt through Fri night/Sat morning...may increase a few kt Saturday due to a tightening pressure gradient...but likely to remain sub-SCA. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft through Fri...before increasing to 3-5 ft Fri night into Sat as long period swell arrives from the low offshore. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft. The cold front will cross the coast Sat evening followed by modest CAA and strong sfc pres rises. SCAs are likely Sat night into Sunday morning with a NW wind reaching 15-25 kt with gusts to 30kt and 4-6 ft seas/3-4 ft waves. The wind diminishes Sun afternoon as sfc hi pres builds into the mid-Atlantic region. Sfc hi pres quickly pushes offshore Sun night into Mon w/ the wind becoming S. && .CLIMATE... Record high of 75 set today for Richmond which tied the record of 75 set in 1985. Also record high for Salisbury set today at 74 which tied the old record of 74 in 1943. Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for today- Sat, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be the 2ns warmest, ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Today 2/23, Friday 2/24 and Saturday 2/25: 2/23 2/24 2/25 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 83 in 1930 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 81 in 1930 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 80 in 1930 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 77 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) * 1) 49.9 (1890) * 2) 48.5 (1976) * 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) * 1) 52.4 (1890) * 2) 50.5 (1909) * 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) * 1) 46.1 (1976) * 2) 45.8 (1984) * 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) * 1) 52.1 (1990) * 2) 51.8 (1939) * 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/WRS SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...AJZ/ALB CLIMATE...

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