-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
209
FXUS61 KAKQ 152004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers continue into this evening. Mainly dry
conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but
showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area late this
  aftn/evening.

- Any thunderstorms will be isolated and are expected to stay
  confined to NE NC (with any stronger storms S of the local
  area).

- Warmer and mainly dry Thursday with partly sunny skies.



The latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure now pushing
farther off the MD/DE coast. A trough aloft is still to our
west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local
area. Mainly just isolated showers across the region this aftn,
though expect to see some uptick in coverage (mainly south) into
the evening as we will see cooling temps aloft as the upper
trough approaches. PoPs rise to 40-50% across the S/SW, with
20-30% elsewhere into the evening.

The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with
widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after
midnight (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast
through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day
weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence
behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the
coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern
shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the aftn.
Temps rise to the upper 60s/lower 70s on the eastern shore with
mid 70s to near 80F well W of the Bay. There may be just enough
lingering moisture fro an isolated shower along the eastern
shore during the aftn/early evening. Expect most of the aftn
heating and potential convection farther inland to remain W of
the CWA (though have included a 15% PoP in the far W).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms
  possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with
  widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday.


Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx
expected as weak sfc high pressure will be over the region.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the
area on Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The
low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not
get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-
upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand,
temps should top out near 80F inland. The next system approaches
late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible
in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95
will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.

Friday night through Saturday continues to look unsettled as the
models are in decent agreement with the next system moving in
from the W. The consensus places the upper level low across the
lower OH Valley Fri night, drifting to the E through Saturday.
At the sfc, high pressure will be off to our NE along/off the
New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure
tracking just S of the upper low. Models depict PWat  values
rising to 1.60-1.80" Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft
and deep lift expected over the region. WPC currently has a
Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the
past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead
to additional/continued hydro concerns. High Saturday in the
60s N to the 70s S, with aftn tstms mainly possible in southern
VA and NE NC. Severe tstms are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled with at least scattered showers on
  Sunday.

- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.

Lingering showers are expected on the back side of the system
on Sunday. The 12Z/15 GFS is generally the wettest model with
the upper level low progressing very slowly while the ECMWF is a
bit faster to push the deeper moisture to the coast by Sun aftn.
The GFS actually lingers the upper low through Monday. For now
will follow the consensus weighted to the NBM which supports
high chc PoPs (likely Sun aftn across the SE), with diminishing
PoPs Sun night /Mon (but still w/ ~20% chances along the coast
Monday). Highs will stay a bit below avg Sunday and Monday, then
warming to near to above avg Tue-Wed as high pressure finally
returns. There is a chc for some late day convection Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly MVFR flight restrictions prevail this aftn with CIGs of
1500-2500 ft. Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening
(though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm
at ECG. CIGs will mostly be MVFR at all sites this evening-
tonight with a period or two of IFR possible at SBY overnight.


Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday
(though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu).
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms,
and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with
at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds will continue into Thursday as low pressure
meanders offshore. SCAs remain in effect.

- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.

- Winds and seas may increase again this weekend as the next system
moves through.

The surface low pressure continues to slide across our northern
waters and offshore of the Maryland Eastern Shore. It created
periods of 34+ kt gusts across the north through mid-day, but winds
have now subsided back into SCA criteria. In the Bay and rest of the
coastal waters, winds are mostly northwesterly at 12-18kt with gusts
to 20-25kt. Guidance continues to indicate winds increasing tonight
into Thursday on the backside of the low as it lingers just
offshore. SCAs have been extended for the Bay and lower James until
Thursday at 21Z/6pm. Winds will be gusty across the coastal waters
too, but should remain below their SCA criteria; however, 5+ ft
waves will linger into Thursday, particularly across the north.
Right now, the SCAs for the coastal waters from Cape Charles to
Currituck expire at 4pm today due to seas subsiding to 3-4ft and
winds expected to remain below SCA thresholds. The SCA from
Parramore Island to Cape Charles will drop off at 1AM as seas lower,
with the northern tier holding onto their SCA until Thursday
afternoon as those 5+ ft seas linger a bit longer. Winds will
subside late Thursday as the low pressure finally drifts further
southeast, likely allowing all SCAs to end.

Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday
afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another
low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially
increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the
position of the low. The ECMWF brings the system and elevated winds
in earlier on Saturday, while the GFS waits until Sunday into Monday
for the elevated conditions to arrive. Currently leaning towards the
ECMWF, but will continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the
Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening
and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).

The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton has been
cancelled. The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville remains under a
Flood Warning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JKP/SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ