Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231850 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO 2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA (CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC). THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST. BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RIC 76 1979 ORF 78 1983 SBY 78 1931 ECG 77 1983 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...ALB/TMG AVIATION...ESS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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