Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020146 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 946 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the region this evening into Saturday morning. The front will then remain nearly stationary across North Carolina from Saturday afternoon into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast updated to alter Pops based on latest radar trends. Best chance of rain will remain over Eastern areas tngt (chance-likely pops) with slight chance pops elsewhere. Risk of severe weather has greatly diminished with the loss of daytime heating but still could see some gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms. Previous Discussion... Latest surface analysis places the frontal boundary over the Piedmont. A warm, moist, and unstable air mass remains over the local area. KAKQ radar depicts a line of heavy rain with intense lightning along a line from Isle of Wight County northeastward to the Maryland Eastern Shore. In the wake of this line, outflows and cool pools have helped develop additional showers and thunderstorms along Interstate 85 in south central Virginia northward to Richmond. All this activity will continue to push eastward through the afternoon, with additional scattered activity expected to develop in the unstable air mass through late today. Thereafter, attention turns to the approaching cold front. Upper level flow kicks around to the west early evening as the cold front drops into the region. Westerly flow and limited forcing will begin to limit the overall coverage into the Piedmont and central Virginia, but still anticipate solid chance to likely POPs north and east of Richmond. Air mass remains unstable ahead of the front, with deep layer shear progged around 30 to 35 knots. Strong winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall are still possible. SPC maintains a slight risk for severe weather. POPs begin to taper off as the front pushes toward the coast and deepest moisture pushes offshore. High resolution guidance drops showers along the coast before dissipating as they move offshore. Sky begins to clear inland late tonight, remaining partly cloudy near the coast. Lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Potent upper wave lifts into southeast Canada with westerly flow over the Mid-Atlantic region. The front stalls in the vicinity of northern North Carolina in the zonal flow. Deepest moisture pushes south of the local area Saturday. Will keep chance POPs across northern North Carolina where models depict best forcing along the front and deepest moisture. Highs Saturday generally in the mid 80`s (cooler near the coast) under a mostly sunny sky north to partly cloudy south. Wavy front lifts northward slightly Saturday night as the southeast Canadian wave lifts northeast and another wave approaches from the west. POPs increase to solid chance to likely POPs across the far south. Clouds increase with a mostly cloudy sky expected. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s. The wavy front will linger in the vicinity of the North Carolina/Virginia border through Monday in westerly flow aloft. Several waves are expected to ride along the frontal boundary as high precipitable water air pools along the front. Expect period of showers Sunday and Monday, especially across southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. Timing each wave is difficult at this point, so will refrain from likely POPs at this time. However, do expect much of the southern area to receive rainfall. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms expected areawide Monday afternoon as a more potent wave approaches from the west, amplifying the flow and lifting the front northward. The potential still exists for periods of heavy rainfall, with minor flooding possible. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 80`s. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s to low 70`s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A frontal boundary shifts northward through the area during the evening of Independence Day as a trough drops into the Great Lakes and a ridge builds over the East Coast. The front then drops back into the region Tuesday, and then pushes south of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. By later in the week, a weak trough lingers well off the coast as a mid/upper ridge becomes centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and extends up into the Ohio Valley. PoPs will generally be diurnally driven Monday and Tuesday, averaging 30-50% across the area. PoPs drop to less than 15% by Wednesday as drier air builds in from the north. A shortwave trough dropping in from the NW could trigger some afternoon/evening showers/tstms by Thursday, but confidence with respect to details is low at this range (a week in advance). Forecast high temperatures are generally in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday-Wednesday, and then trend into the mid 80s to around 90 Thursday-Friday. Lows will average in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sct tstms contg to develop early this aftn...mnly in ern VA. Additional shras/tstms xpcd through the aftn/eve. Went w/ mnly VCTS given isold/sct coverage. Otrw...sct-bkn layered cldns...cigs mnly 5-10kft. Cdfnt crosses the region tonight shifting winds to more NNW by 12Z/02. Boundary stalls acrs far srn VA/nrn NC on Sat...may be a focus for at least isold aftn/eve tstms at PHF/ORF/ECG. Lo pres tracks acrs the rgn Sun into Mon with periods of IFR and/or MVFR conds in numerous shras/sct tstms. && .MARINE... A cold front drops into the area this evening, and pushes through later tonight, with high pressure building into the area Saturday. A brief NNW surge is expected in the wake of the front early Saturday morning. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, but a brief period of wind gusts up to 20kt is possible over the Bay. The wind becomes NE and gradually diminishes Saturday. The front drops south of the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then lifts through the area Sunday night into Monday. A weak front approaches from the NW Monday night and drops into the area Tuesday. Seas average 2-3ft through the period, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. A brief period of 2-3ft waves is possible in the Bay Saturday morning with the aforementioned surge. && .CLIMATE... June 2016 goes down as the 7th wettest June on record at 7.81 inches. The May-June total at RIC ended at 17.60 inches, making the two month period the 2nd wettest on record. The 1st was 1972 with 17.69 inches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...

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