Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 500 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY...PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1001 MB LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST WITH A WEAKER SECOND AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/NC CST. ALOFT...A VERY POTENT UPR-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SE STATES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO AREAS OF NOTE IN TERMS OF PRECIP...ONE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA CST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE VA PIEDMONT. BOTH AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA AS SUBSIDENCE REMAINS WITH SOMEWHAT DRY LO LEVELS AS WELL. THEREFORE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS MORNG...INCREASING THRU THE DAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE. WITH THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF REMAINING S OF THE AREA TDA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS BEING MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25IN. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.25-0.50IN) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE DURATION OF RAIN SHOULD BE LONGEST. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A PERIOD OF STRONG N WIND (25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ~45 MPH) IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND STRONG CAA COMMENCES. AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT FOR A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING (ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SC COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER SST`S ~62-64F). THE SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 N/NE...TO THE MID 50S S. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON SHOULD OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO 29-32 OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH SSW FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTANT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAXIMA TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED AND THU MORNING. ALOFT, UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SLIP OFFSHORE LATE WED/THU. NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THE FROPA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. WILL KEEP POP NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR WED/THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURE POST FRONTAL LATE IN THE INTO THE 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS NEAR CLIMO VALUES FRIDAY AND SAT MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHR WHILE LIFTING NE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG. NNE FLO/WINDS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE AREA...ESPLY LATER THIS MORNG INTO THIS EVENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR CIGS AND ISLTD IFR CIGS ALONG WITH -RA. THE LO WILL PULL AWAY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST AND TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TNGT INTO SUN AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES SUN MORNG...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON SUN. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN INTO TUE. && .MARINE...
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LO PRES WAS OFF JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND WILL INTENSIFY TODAY INTO TNGT...AS UA LO PRES ENERGY DIVES ESE OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS THEN LIFTS NE. HAVE ADJUSTED SCA/GALE WRNG HEADLINES WHILE ALSO EXTENDING THEM THRU MOST OF SUN. FOR GALE WRNGS...WILL HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 40 KT OR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...ESPLY FOR TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. WAVES/SEAS WILL BLD QUICKLY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS N WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO STRENGTHENING LO PRES OFF THE CST. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN EVENG INTO MON MORNG...AS THE LO MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NNW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS THE SURGE APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634- 650-652-654-656-658. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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