Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA. INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING. AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT. SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/ ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN). && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...AJZ

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