Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 111958 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area. Expect markedly colder temperatures across the region for Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest surface analysis reveals a broad area of high pressure (~1030 mb) centered from the western Gulf coast across the deep south. To the north, Low pressure continues to slide across the Adirondack Mtns, with the associated surface front extending back into the Ohio Valley. To the northwest, a shortwave diving south from southern Saskatchewan across the Dakotas, dragging a strong cold south across the upper midwest/Western Great Lakes today and through the Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of the front, lingering mid to high clouds, associated with another vort lobe pivoting across the Delmarva at sunrise, exiting with the departing upper trough. Sky again turns mainly sunny behind this feature today. Temperatures do moderate slightly, with milder highs today into the mid-upper 40s most areas to lower 50s SE coast. After a clear start, sky will become partly to mostly cloudy late tonight ahead of the approaching front to the west. Veering low-level flow to the S-SW should bring a slightly milder night with early morning lows in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Day begins with potent upper shortwave pinwheeling across the interior northeast, with the strong cold front pushing across the area from late morning through early evening Tuesday. Should be enough pre-frontal SW flow Tue to bring one last relatively mild day Tuesday, with highs into the mid- upper 50s SE to the upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW to SE. Wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon...gusting to 30 to 40 mph Tuesday night. Temperatures quickly tumble into the 20s/30s early Tuesday night, with early morning lows in the teens NW to 20s elsewhere Wednesday morning under a clearing sky. Brisk NW winds will quickly knock wind chills down into the 10-20 F range Wed morning. Even with mainly sunny skies Wed, highs will struggle to get above the lower 30s N and mid 30s S...with wind chills remaining in the 20s or colder. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clipper system approaches from the WNW Thu night...then crosses the local area Fri as weak sfc lo pres passes just S and E. 12Z/11 GFS and ECMWF both suggest there is a potential for wintry pcpn on Fri (esp N and NW sections)...maintaining cold air across the region. By the weekend...upper level flow relaxes allowing for moderation into next weekend. Lows Thu night from the m20s NW to the m30s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri from the m30s NW to around 50F in far SE VA-NE NC. Lows Fri night from the m-u20s inland to 30-35F at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the l-m40s. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s. Lows Sun night in the 30s to l40s. Highs Mon in the l-m50s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18z TAF period and beyond. SKC for today with light S/SW winds. Some increasing clouds tonight into Tue ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and associated strong sfc cold front. Mainly just some SCT-BKN mid clouds with this. SW winds shift to W then NW as the front slides through the area Tue, with gusts up to 20-30 kt at times Tue aftn. Expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the week ahead. && .MARINE... High pressure will slide over the area and to the coast during today. Sub-SCA conditions expected everywhere fm this morning into Tue morning, as high pressure slides acrs the area and to the coast while a cold front starts to approach fm the west. That cold front will push thru the waters Tue aftn into early Tue evening, with strong CAA expected behind the front on NW or W winds thru Wed aftn or Wed evening. SCA conditions expected over much of the marine area fm Tue thru Wed aftn/evening. Low- end gales will be possible Tue night and Wed, esply over the coastal wtrs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAS/MAM MARINE...TMG

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