Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161812 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 112 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon, with high pressure building over the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc high pressure (~1033mb) remains centered over the Delmarva late this morning, and will remain in place over the region through this evening. Still some spotty areas of light rain/drizzle across the area, with a trend towards dissipating of that -RA over the next few hrs. Temperatures avg in the upper 30s to lower-mid 40s, with readings only expected to rise a few degrees for highs that will avg in the lower-mid 40s (upper 40s in NE NC). Additional QPF will be a trace or less for the most part so will have only a 20% POP (or less) through the aftn, but did mention areas of drizzle over the interior through 18Z where lower Cigs reside. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak CAD lingers tonight...keeping mainly cloudy conditions. Little/no forcing for pcpn. Lows in the u30s to around 40F. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Winds becoming S scour out the CAD during the morning. Models continue to trend toward another wet/dreary day though...w/ hi chance-likely PoPS over the northern 1/2 of the FA...less rain and lower PoPS but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain l60s far S for now). Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday. A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this system should stay to the west through Sunday. Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 17z...High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will slip off to the east. As low pressure moves northeast from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes...a warm front will approach from the southwest. Low level moisture will keep ceilings generally MVFR and lower to IFR mainly at RIC early Tuesday morning. Periods of light drizzle over southeast Virginia will diminish this afternoon. Showers develop mainly northern portions during the day Tuesday. Winds will be light through the 18Z TAF period. OUTLOOK...The warm front moves north of the region Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation moves out of the area and conditions improve. a cold front moves through Wednesday morning and may be associated with a few showers. The weather improves once again Thu. An upper level system may bring showers to the area Friday. Dry weather returns for Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high pres centers over the Mid Atlantic...eventually sliding offshore this aftn. Sub-sca conditions for today with winds below 10 kt, 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the waters early Wed. Hi pres returns Thu. Sub-sca conditions expected through this period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS

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