Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 251752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
152 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slow clearing continues from the NE as the front settles farther
south into the Carolinas this afternoon. Little if any activity
seen on radar attm, but kept isltd pops in this afternoon from the
VA/NC border on south per latest high res models and available
instability. Should see increasing amounts of sunshine north to
south as the afternoon wears on. N-NE flow keeps in cool with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.
Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.
Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.
River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.
The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").