Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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406 FXUS61 KAKQ 270028 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 828 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight, and will slowly sink south through the region late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will dissipate on Sunday, with another cold front moving in from the west on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Current analysis indicating sfc low pressure situated off the New England coast, with a weak trough extending SW into the mid-Atlantic states. NW flow aloft and an elongated shortwave still leading to BKN cloud cover across the NE zones, while skies have become mainly clear elsewhere with loss of daytime heating. Expect even the NE sections to become mostly clear over the next few hrs. Winds that had been breezy from the WNW are now diminishing rather rapidly and avg 5-10 mph or less except near the coast. Lows overnight will avg in the mid/upper 50s to around 60F inland to the lower 60s near the coast in VA/NE NC. A few mid/high clouds may return and affect far northern zones towards daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through Sat morning. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA (by after 20Z/27). SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a SLGT risk...w/ remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, w/ 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized damaging winds. Partly-mostly sunny Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs from the m-u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m-u80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. A weak sfc boundary settles just S of the area (by Sun morning). Another S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in (at least) SCT convective development. Not as warm Sun due to VRB clouds-becoming mostly cloudy conditions. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the 60s. Highs Sun in the u60s-m70s at the coast to the m-u70s inland. Will continue to highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend. A break in the chances for SHRAs/tstms after Sun evening...into Mon morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then continue to the E Mon afternoon. Expecting additional SHRAs/tstms to accompany that frontal passage...mainly Mon afternoon/evening. Otherwise...partly- mostly cloudy Sun night-Mon. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Highs Mon mainly in the l-m80s (except 70s at the beaches). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru Wed. More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected Wed night thru Fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the region or acrs the Carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the upper 50s to the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through tonight and into early Sat aftn. Scattered showers and tstms return to the region Saturday aftn, becoming most probable from about 18-20Z/Sat through 00-03Z/Sun. Potential for some strong storms with strong/gusty winds being the main concern (and brief heavy downpours/reduced VSBYS). Otherwise, winds shift to the N/NE Sat night and become E/SE during the day Sunday. Some lower cigs/MVFR-IFR conditions possible Sun morning. Remaining unsettled with daily chances for primarily late aftn/evening showers/tstms Sun through Tue. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Sun. Low pressure just off the New England coast late this aftn, will move east into the nrn Atlc tonight. Then, weak low pressure will move east acrs the OH valley late tonight, then slides ESE thru the CWA and off the coast Sat aftn into Sat night. Weak high pressure will build by to the north and off the coast late Sat night into Sun aftn. Then, a warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area Sun night into Tue morning. Wind speeds will be 15 kt or less tonight into Tue, with waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. But, sctd aftn/evening tstms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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