Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 182022 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 422 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the region through mid week. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday, then track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 2 pm EDT...Hurricane Jose was 265 miles ESE of Cape Hatteras and moving to the north. This motion will continue through tonight with Jose remaining well offshore. This will result in minimal impacts over land, except for an increase in wind speeds along the immediate coast early Tues morning. We do have ongoing shower activity across the Piedmont and another batch of showers moving across the Tidewater. Elsewhere, sunshine is mixing with clouds this afternoon. Except daytime heating to keep this shower activity going through sunset, then should see shower coverage diminish after dark and then become mostly limited to far eastern areas overnight. Will keep 30-40% PoPs going inland through the evening, then will increase PoPs to 40-60% along the coast after 06z. QPF will be less than a quarter inch. A NNE wind will increase late tonight with speeds of 20-30 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph. Lows from the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jose`s closest approach to the local area is expected to be Tuesday morning. Given this timing/track, highest PoPs (40-60%) will be confined to the eastern third of the fa during Tuesday, then drying out Tue night. Will not carry any PoPs as far west as the I-95 corridor. In fact, western areas will see decreasing clouds in the afternoon as drier air moves in from the west. Additional QPF amounts will be no higher than 0.25-0.50" across far eastern areas. Remaining breezy over the Ern Shore through at least midday Tuesday with a 20-25 mph NNW wind gusting up to 30-40 mph. OXB will likely have the highest winds with gusts up to 45 mph where a wind advisory has been issued. Highs in the mid/upr 70s at the coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Slight chance of showers over the Eastern Shore Tues night. Otherwise, dry. Lows in the 60s to near 70. High pressure re-establishes itself over the region Wednesday. Subsidence in the wake of Jose allows for ample sunshine and unseasonably warm temps. Given H85 temps of 15-16C and the dry ground across the Piedmont (i.e. lack of any significant rainfall lately), highs should reach the mid-upr 80s. A rogue 90 degree reading is even possible at one of the AWOS sites, but no records are in jeopardy as all the records are above 90 deg. Looking for Thursday to be dry as well as we remain under the influence of high pressure to the north. Highs in the low to mid 80s (70s immediate coast). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Thu night through the weekend as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly re-circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the weekend) - esp at the coast...expecting dry/near-slightly above seasonable conditions. By Mon...a few of the models track the remnant low back wwd toward the mid- Atlantic coast...which would increase clouds and raise PoPs. Finally...tropical cyclone Maria will need to be watched by early next week as it potentially moves to off the SE CONUS coast. Monitor forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun in the l-m80s...Mon in the m70s-l80s. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Spotty showers may impact the TAF sites through 00Z but conditions will remain VFR to marginal MVFR. Any showers overnight will be mainly confined to areas nearest the coast with KSBY and KECG having the best chances. Confidence in showers not high enough to include in TAFs attm. CIGS become MFVR all areas overnight. Outlook: Jose`s closest approach to the coast will be Tuesday morning with periodic shwrs nearest the coast, gusty winds and lwr CIGS. Jose departs to the NE off the srn New England coast Tue night into Thu, as weak high pressure builds in fm the WNW. && .MARINE...
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Tropical storm warnings now in effect for all coastal waters as winds/seas continue to ramp up tonight into Tuesday with Hurricane Jose pushing northward offshore. The warning is for 25-35 kt sustained winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas this aftn avg 8-10 ft south, but have been slow to increase farther north (genly 5-6 ft). Still expect seas to increase to up to 10-15 ft by Tue morning. Waves over the Bay will also increase as Jose pushes northward, from 3-4 ft this aftn, and 4-5 ft by Tue morning and 5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Some of the high res guidance suggests that there will be the potential for frequent Gale force gusts over the Bay and Currituck sound after 06Z tonight through Tue morning. Decided to raise Gale Warnings for the mouth of the Bay and the sound where frequent gusts to 35 kt are expected, and keep it SCA for the rest of the Bay and continue the mention for occasional gusts to 35 kt in the MWW. SCA headlines over the rivers continue as well. Marine conditions then improve Tue night/early Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Continuing to monitor the track of Jose, with NNE winds increasing this evening through Tuesday as long period swells gradually increase as well. Would expect this to result in water piling up in the Bay and tidal rivers, though the currents data at the Cape Henry channel marker has not shown any dominance of the incoming/flood tide thus far. Minor flooding looks likely, with some locally moderate tidal flooding possible later Tue as water levels will already be a bit higher than normal given the upcoming new moon. Will be issuing coastal flood products shortly. Have issued a high surf advsry for all coastal areas due to nearshore waves increasing to 8-11 ft tonight. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 13- 14 sec periods and 5-8 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high into the middle of the week as seas and swell associated with Jose increase.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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