Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201949 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 249 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday. Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Hi prs moves off the NC coast this evening. Good radiational cooling expected despite a light SSW wind. SKC with low in the upr 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure pushes farther offshore Tuesday with a trof developing along the sern coast. Moisture increases along this feature but support for any rainfall stays south of the local area through 00Z Wed. Tues starts off sunny with clouds increasing S-N throughout the day. Milder with highs 60-65. A quick moving nrn stream wave lifts into the northeast Wed with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12Z Wed. Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift N-NE along the Mid- Atlantic coast Wed. Latest models are somewhat faster with the fropa which pushes the moisture off the coast btwn 12Z- 15Z. Where the models differ is just how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the coast with the NAM/SREF favoring some light pcpn as far west as the Piedmont. Best lift progged east of I95 between 06Z-12Z Wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east of I-95 after midnight...quickly shifting toward the coast around 12Z then offshore by 15Z Wed. Kept likely pops east of I95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows Tues night in the 40s to lwr 50s SE. Little QPF west of I95, .10 to .25 east. Given a quicker fropa, tsctns show drying west to east Wed aftrn as high pressure builds in from the west. Lagging CAA and sun should allow temps to rise into the mid 50s - lwr 60s. Mstly clr / pt cldy Wed night. Lows upr 20s - mid 30s except upr 30s sern coastal areas. Cool / dry Thurs. Highs 45-50.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore Fri. This keeps any moisture coming off of Fla south of the local area. Lows Thurs nite in the upr 20s- upr 30s. Highs Fri in the low-mid 50s. Lows Fri nite in the 30s. The next front pushes across the region Sat. It will be moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs Sat in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry / colder early next week as Canadian high prs returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon in the low-mid 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. West winds below 10 kts become SSW tonight and Tues. Outlook: A weak trough of low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Wed with sct shwrs possible mainly east of I95 Tues night into early Wed. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible over the terminals during this timeframe. && .MARINE...
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Update to be issued shortly. Previous discussion...Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated the rest of today through tonight as high pressure becomes centered over the Carolinas and slides offshore late tonight. W-NW winds becoming S-SW tonight with sub-SCA speeds. A Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley Tue...approaching the waters late Tue night. Pressure gradient tightens over nrn half of area during this time. SW winds should average 10-15kt north/5-10kt south Tue and diminish through Tue night as wind direction becomes more westerly late. Seas 2-4ft north/2-3ft south this aftn through Tue night. Waves generally 1-2ft. Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the Carolina coasts and tracks northeast...passing well east of Cape Hatteras by Wed aftn. Next chance for SCA conditions should be Wed/Wed night for all waters except York, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft. High pressure rooting itself over the Ohio Valley to TN/mid- Mississippi valleys Wed night through Thu night will allow another low pressure wave to track northeast from the Southeast Coast to an offshore location farther east of Cape Hatteras during this time. Best pressure gradient appears to stay well south of the local waters, therefore sub-SCA N-NW wind speeds are anticipated. Seas slowly subside from 3-5ft Thu to 2-4ft Thu night/Fri. Waves 2-3ft subsiding to 1-2ft during same timeframe. High pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic Region for Fri with light and variable winds expected.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Technicans are currently working on the Richmond ASOS (KRIC). KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive Wed.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...MPR

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