Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020812 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ECHO FREE LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND LIFT INTO THE NE STATES AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE. WAA IN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AROUND 20C (~+1 STD DEV). COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO MIX BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES...AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END CHANCE) HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PUSHES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDS AS WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS AND THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR 90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB/MAS CLIMATE...

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