Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301428 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ISLTD SHOWERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNG HAVE DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WAS ACRS MOST OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNG. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROF WILL REMAIN OVR THE ERN CONUS...CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY/COMFORTABLE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH DEWPTS REMAINING FM THE 50S TO THE LWR 60S...AND HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST...TO THE LWR TO MID 80S INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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