Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200013 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 813 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EAST WINDS WILL RULE FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OVER ERN PORTIONS...PARTLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING. MADE USE OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR THE CLOUD FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT RIC AND SBY BUT MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE FOG IN RECENT WEEKS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO IFR FOR SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS GETTING NEAR SATURATION AT RIC/SBY...INCLUDED MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT 10Z. ALSO HAVE SOME SCT STRATUS AT SOME OF THE SITES FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS TOWARD THE COAST AND LESS INLAND. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OVER SE VA/NE NC DUE TO MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE VFR AND DRY AT EACH OF THE SITES. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY AND KEEP ITS MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... 7 PM UPDATE...SEAS ARE BUILDING OVER FAR NRN PORTIONS AND STARTED SCA AT 7 PM FOR THE MD COASTAL WATERS. THE REST OF THE SCA STILL BEGINS AT 05Z/1 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR SEAS. SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR THE NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LSA/JAO HYDROLOGY...

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