Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060801 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE (999 MB) IS SITUATED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE VA COAST. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...AND ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR FROM RICHMOND TO HAMPTON ROADS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVIEST/STEADIEST RAIN THIS MORNING REMAINS OVER LUNENBURG/MECKLENBURG COUNTIES WHERE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO PIVOT NE THRU 12Z AND CENTER OVER VA BEACH BY THAT TIME...SO RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS AND BASICALLY HAVE 100% POPS EVERYWHERE (EXCEPT COASTAL NE NC) THRU 12Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING SOUTHERN NJ/SE PA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR CWA THRU 18Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z. WILL CALL IT MODERATE RAIN THRU 18Z...THEN AS PCPN BEGINS TO WANE A BIT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THINKING PCPN MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY WON`T MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT LEVELS...ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG. THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW SHOULD LIMITED POPS. WILL HAVE BEST CHC (30-50%) ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 20-30% POPS NORTH EARLY SAT MORN...TO 10% POPS (DRY) SOUTH. LOWS FROM THE UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 50S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LOW GETS FORCED EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SAT AS IT FEELS THE AFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM TROUGH. MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL LINGER OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NGT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH IT...SO JUST HAVE SMALL CHC (30%) OR SLGT CHC (20%) POPS FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S MOST AREAS MON AS STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SLY FLOW T0 DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLC. DRY WX EXPECTED WITH LO PRES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PCPN MON NGT/TUE WELL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING WED (30-40% POPS) AS THE LO APPROACHES FM THE W. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S UNDER CONTINUED SLY FLOW...WITH MORNG LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THU (30% POPS) WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE/WED. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SIMILAR VARIABILITY PERSISTING TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 08-10Z WILL BRING MORE CONSISTENT, WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM AROUND NOON TO MID AFTN, ALTHOUGH SBY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL SLACKENING/WEAKENING OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DROP OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED SCA OVER THE CHES BAY. SFC LOW NUDGES N TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY/SRN NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO ~ 10 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND WILL TO THE NNW OVER THE BAY AND W-SW OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT OVER NRN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THE SCA HAS BEEN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS TURN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND W/SUB-SCA CONDS TO PREVAIL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SAT...THOUGH SEAS LIKELY STAY ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARD OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS TURN SSW AND AVG 15 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE NW ON SUNDAY. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL, THUS ADDITIONAL SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOUTH RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS REMAIN SLY AND SUB-SCA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT DURING THIS PERIOD, WAVES 1-2 FT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUNENBURG/MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THIS MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. WITH LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING NE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS MODERATE RAIN TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SAME AREAS (FROM AMELIA TO MECKLENBURG COUNTY) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ON TOP OF THE 2-3" OF RAIN THAT OCCURRED IN THE AREA SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RAPID RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF THE FLOOD ADVISORY IS NECESSARY (PERHAPS INTO NOTTOWAY COUNTY). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED...AND HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ~1.5 HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF SOME MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS AROUND THE LOWER BAY (VA BEACH/NORTHAMPTON VA). EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDES, AS DEPARTURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL. ONCE AGAIN, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS, MOST LIKELY WITH THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ084>086- 089-090-093-095>098-522>525. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099- 100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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