Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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487 FXUS61 KAKQ 281946 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 346 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain off the Southeast coast into the weekend with a weak frontal boundary lingering to the north of the area through Friday. This boundary slides south this weekend and washes out over the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A weak frontal boundary stretches from the Delmarva westward into southern PA and into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile...a lee trough is present just to the west of the area. It`s been another hot day with portions of interior NE NC flirting with excessive heat warning criteria (>110+ deg). These warm conditions continue into the evening (unless a thunderstorm develops) will maintain current heat advisory from the RIC metro area south. So far this afternoon tstm activity has been confined to the lower MD eastern shore where a couple of SVRs have already been issued. This activity will tend to weaken and/or move offshore through 5 pm with interest then turning to activity developing and moving in from the west. Areas generally along and north of RIC are still under a slight risk of svr wx this afternoon with the potential for a svr tstm watch being issued before 5 pm for much of the area. Instability is certainly there with ML capes of 3000 and effective shear around 30-40kt. However...still noticing a cap in place around 800-700 mb layer with only modest mid-level lapse rates which so far has put a lid on towering cumulus development. Nonetheless, will continue to carry high chc to likely pops (50-65%) across northern areas through the evening...and chc pops 25-40% south. Shower and tstm chances later this evening and overnight will primarily be limited to northern locales, nearest the weak frontal boundary. Have chc pops north of RIC and kept things dry across SE VA and NE NC. Lows tonight in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned weak boundary remains stationary near the Mason-Dixon line Friday and we`ll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. Shortwave energy exits the coast by late morning Friday and puts the local area in a void as far as convection goes Fri aftn. Therefore, have lowered pops all areas to slight chc (20%). Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud cover. In additional, we`ll see a small reduction in dew pts Friday afternoon given better mixing behind exiting S/W. This should preclude the need for a Heat Advisory (even in the SE). Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the low/mid 90s south. The next cold front sags southward into eastern VA Friday night it may touch off an isolated shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy with lows in the low/mid 70s. That next cold front washes out across the area Saturday/Sunday as a broad trough aloft takes over. Rain chances this weekend will generally be diurnally driven and pops were placed at 30-50% for the afternoon hours. Temps will not be as hot as recent days with highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front finally begins to advance on the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and is expected to cross the area during Monday...stalling near the Carolinas into mid week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of Ches Bay in Ern/Cntrl VA and NE NC Sun night through Tue night. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure settles over New England which will result in more seasonal temps in the upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively lowering heat indices into the lower 90s in the extended forecast periods. In addition, onshore winds develop by Tue morning and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus having a drying effect on the overall weather and reducing precip chances below any mention. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals this morning. Exception is with some short-lived MVFR at SBY with MIFG/Patchy ground fog, but expect this to diminish by 28/14z. Otherwise, main wx maker will be along stationary boundary situated west to east just to our north across nrn VA and ne MD early this morning. Dry conditions are expected through midday under sct high clouds, with scattered showers/tstms developing after 18z. The aforementioned boundary will remain in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region through Monday resulting in a 30-50% chc of afternoon/evening showers/tstms through Monday. Best chcs for convection remains across the northern tier of CWA, mainly along and N of a RIC-SBY line after 20z. Have held out of TAF for now, with timing still uncertain...but will likely have to account for areal coverage of convection with 18Z TAF. && .MARINE... Low pressure will track along a stationary boundary that is located just north of the area late this strong high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast Coast. Winds are generally 10-15kt Bay/coastal waters and 5-10kt rivers/Sound. Wind directions are variable at the moment due to localized seabreeze effects in the aftn heat but will become s-sw tonight due to the boundary to the north. Thunderstorms will become more widespread through this evening and may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. Local seabreeze boundaries may also create the potential for brief waterspout development during this time. A cold front will push through the region Fri and result in a a wind shift to w during the day and nw Fri night with speeds remaining 10-15kt. Gusts may reach up to 20kt at best early Fri morning through mid morning before diminishing to 5-10kt Fri evening as the front drops south of the area. The front lifts back to the north Sat into Sat night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the region Sun and stalls near the Carolina coast through mid week. Seas average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ060-065>069- 078>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...BMD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.