Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181144 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 744 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING SO THE SFC RIDGE IS WEAKENING. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ASSOCIATED W/ THE GULF LOW. FOR TODAY...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY...MODELS SUGGEST SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE W/SW. NO REAL CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY DUE TO DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 500 MB...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MID AFTN ONWARD. CONTINUED ONSHORE E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A MODIFYING/WARMING AIRMASS BEING OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS THAN PAST 2 DAYS. HIGHS WILL GENLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVF CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PERSIS AT COASTAL TAF SITES FROM SBY TO ORF AND ECG THROUGH 15Z-17Z. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF THE SE COAST WILL WILL MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG THRU MIDDAY. THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO ECG BY SAT MORNG. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK.
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&& .MARINE... GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND (633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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