Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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833 FXUS61 KAKQ 252000 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front weakens offshore of the southeast coast through Monday...as high pressure builds over the region. A second...stronger cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and night...bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek. Surface high pressure will push offshore Wednesday and Thursday with warmer temperatures for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Latest wx analysis reveals weakening sfc front/sfc trough along/just offshore of the SE VA coast, extending south along the E NC coast. to the west, ~1012mb sfc low pressure continues to slowly cross the upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario, with a second, stronger surface cold front snaking back from the eastern Great Lakes into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Aloft, a longwave upper level trough was noted on WV/IR satellite dropping across the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Plains. Noting a few seabreeze-aided Isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms along the coastal trough/front, which should continue through early evening. Incrementally cooler and becoming a bit drier area-wide by evening. Highs upper 80s to around 90. Any evening convection wanes quickly after sunset, as drier air filters in from the west. becoming clear to partly cloudy tonight w/ lows in the m-u50s NW to m-u60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Northern plains upper trough will amplify as it drops across the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night...w/ a lead s/w dropping across into the mountains. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Monday...dropping across the local area late Mon/Mon night. As a result...conditions become partly cloudy. Could see a quick shower or two along the coastal plain. However, given dry antecedent airmass, expecting little more than some increasing clouds and will keep pops in silent range for now. Highs 80-85F (u70s at the beaches). Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool, pleasant night Monday night with lows in the 50s to m60s...then highs in the u70s-l80s Tue. A second...stronger s/w aloft will drop across the local area in NW flow aloft Tuesday. Despite dry airmass...this feature could prove strong enough to squeeze out a quick shower or thunderstorm...mainly over SE VA-NE NC where slightly better moisture may spread NE ahead of the trough axis. Given better model agreement with the 25/12z suite of models, we have increased into chance range for Tuesday afternoon. Sfc high pressure finally builds into/over the region Tue night- Wed providing dry weather and comfortable conditions under a mainly clear sky. Lows in the low to mid 50s inland to the low 60s at the coast. Highs Wed 80-85F...mid to upper 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Long term period will feature generally dry wx with near to slightly above normal temps through the period. Sfc high pres slides offshore Wed night into Thu allowing for S/SW flow to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid-upr 80s Thu. Similar conditions into Fri with a mostly sunny sky and high temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Next chance of rain arrives Sat/Sat night with an approaching cold front. With this several days out will cap PoPs at 30% for now, but may raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF. A cold front will continue to settle southeast through North Carolina this afternoon. A few widely scattered showers have popped up this afternoon across extreme SE VA and NE NC, am not anticipating any adverse conditions at the TAF sites. Any shower activity comes to an end after sunset with decreasing cloud cover overnight. Dry conditions are expected for Monday. Outlook: VFR conditions are likely for much of the work week as high pressure builds over the region. A few showers may be possible on Tuesday as a reinforcing cold front moves through the area. && .MARINE...
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No marine headlines necessary over the next several days. Winds remain under 10 kt Mon with a weak trough of low pres in the vicinity. A weak cold front pushes offshore Mon night into Tue morning, but with weak CAA expect N/NW winds behind the front only up to 10-15 kt. Sfc high pres returns for the middle of this week leading to aftn sea breezes and waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Next low pres system affects the area over the weekend.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAS

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