Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060624 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 124 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE W OVRNGT. WNDS HAVE WEAKENED OVR MOST PLACES AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST. SOME MNLY HI CLDNS SPREADING OVR MNLY NRN AREAS OTRW SKC. LO TEMPS 20-25F FAR INLAND TO L-M30S AT THE SE VA/NE NC CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE RGN SAT THEN SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC TROF REMAINS NRLY STNRY IVOF GULF STREAM WALL. UPSHOT WILL BE DRY CNDTNS WITH NR NRML TMPS. HIGHS SAT IN THE M-U40S. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE M20S-L30S. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE S AS A POTENT S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL SPAWN ANTHR STORM OFF THE FLA COAST SAT NITE WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE CSTL TROF SUN NITE THEN ACROSS THE VACAPES MON. THIS SYSTM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT FOR MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ERLY NEXT WEEK. WRT SENSIBLE WX INLAND...MODELS DIFFER WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST ANY SGNFCNT MSTR GETS WHICH WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON THE SYSTMS TRACK. SREF MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE GFS/NAM KEEPING PCPN CONFINED TO CSTL SCTNS. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/GFS SOLN AND CONFINED PCPN TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY FOR NOW. DRY SUN AND SUN NITE WEST OF THE BAY. GRIDS WILL INDICATE CHC POPS SPREADING NE ALONG THE NC AND SERN VA COAST THRU THE DAY SUN WITH CHC POPS SPRDG NORTH ALONG THE DELMARVA SUN NITE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN. HIGHS SUN 45-50...COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WARMER OVR THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SUN NITE 30-35...XCPT 35-40 ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION... STRNG / GUSTY N WINDS XPCTD ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS BTWN 40-50 MPH SUN AND SUN NITE OVR VA BCH / NRN OUTER BANKS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN THE HWO. THE OCEAN LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE MON WITH THE NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY DIVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES AND OHIO VLLY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE PRBLY WILL BE A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW...MSTR QUICKLY INCRS WEST TO EAST THRU THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS WRN HALF OF FA AS THE MSTR FROM THE UPR LVL LOW CROSSES THE MTS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS 45-50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE STARTING TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND THEN IS SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N/NW PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AS A POTENT VORT LOBE ROTATES THRU. THE WX THEN LOOKS DRY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPR 30S NW TO THE LOW/MID 40S SE. HIGHS WED/THU MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST. EXPECT INCREASING HI CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...ESPLY OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AS LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE FL/GA CST TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. STRONG OR VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED OVR SE VA AND NE NC FM LATE SUN MORNG INTO MON MORNG...AS THE LO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHC FOR RAIN SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT MAINLY AT ECG/ORF. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON THRU TUE ACRS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PCPN. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HAVE ENDED THE SCA FOR THE RIVERS (SAVE THE LOWER JAMES) AS OF 4 PM...AND THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES...CHES BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED (GENERALLY 5-9FT)... AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES ENDING AT 4 AM...AND SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES ENDING AT 7 AM. WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING 10 AM SUN FOR N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 KT. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...BUT WILL WAIT TO HOIST NEXT WAVE OF SCA`S UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE AND WE GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS. ANY N-NW SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW COULD EASILY PUSH WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA TO THE POINT WHERE STORM CONDITIONS WOULD BE ATTAINABLE AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 7-12 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) FOR NOW AND THAT COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL AND STONY CREEK...CASHIE AT WINDSOR...AND RICHMOND/WESTHAM. THIS ALL DUE TO THE COMBO OF RECENT SNOWMELT AND THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY...

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