Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222150 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 550 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES). && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS/DAP MARINE...BMD

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