Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210222 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1022 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S. NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF... WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT. NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ/MPR HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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