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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THOSE AREAS THAT WERE IN A FREEZE WATCH HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED ARE NOW IN A FREEZE WARNING EXCEPT FOR MATHEWS COUNTY.
YORK COUNTY...NEWPORT NEWS AND HAMPTON HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
WARNING. NOTE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES AT LOCATIONS WITHIN A COUPLE
OF MILES OF THE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT WAS
BETWEEN ROA AND LYH AT 15Z AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE
TIMING OF THE NAM12. THIS TAKES IT THROUGH RIC AROUND 18Z...ORF
BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AND OFF THE NE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHORTLY AFT
00Z. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WITH SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN
ABOUT AN HOUR BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN DIMINISHES BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL END FROM W TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE PORTION OF EASTERN VIRGINIA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND THE
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PARAMETERS PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARD
THE COAST. AN UPDATE TO THE SEVERE DISCUSSION WILL ISSUED AROUND 1 PM.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED BUT
GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 70 AND 75. A DOWNWARD TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN
SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY. NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA IS
INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG CAA (1000-850MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AT RIC
DROP ~100MB IN 18 HRS!) WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR. LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SE VA/NE NC WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.
AS A RESULT...FREEZE WARNINGS/WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE
REFER TO HEADLINE FOR MORE INFORMATION. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NWLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 (NEAR 40 MPH NEAR THE COAST) ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING 10-15 MPH. AS A RESULT...FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COLD WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME STREAMERS
OVER THE BAY INTO SE VA/NE NC WEDS MORNING. H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO
~-5C (-2 STD DEV)...TRANSLATING TO DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 50S...EVEN UNDER THE STRONG APRIL SUN. TEMPS AGAIN MAY FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER INLAND COUNTIES WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NC COAST BY THURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND TO
BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE
FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY...ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL...WITH TEMPS MODERATING A BIT SATURDAY. ALOFT, NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT NGT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS DO TAKE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
WITH RESULTANT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS PROMPTING
SOME LOW POPS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z/14 EURO SOLUTION
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. HAVE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET FOR THIS PACKAGE. RIGHT NOW,
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHC WOULD BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY, WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST SHUNTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE. QUICK
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD
(EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY).

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MAINLY AT KSBY...EVENTUALLY KRIC.
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY (GUSTS OF 25-30 KT) AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH PERIODIC IFR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT ARE LIKELY AS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE (A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS).

OUTLOOK...BEHIND THE FRONT, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO THE NNW AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
THROUGH 06Z INLAND AND THROUGH 15Z AT KORF/KPHF/KECG. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...REMOVED RAMP-UP SCA`S AS
WE ARE WITHIN ~ 12 HRS OF THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...AS PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT (AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION). THIS
EVENING...IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 MB IN A
6 HR PERIOD SHOULD BRING GUSTS OF 35-40 KT FOR ALL ZONES. THIS WILL
ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL ENHANCE MIXING OVER THE
WATERS. WAVES WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL
BLD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD JUST
TO THE N BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 12Z FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT
HOLDING INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THE COAST AND CURRITUCK SOUND. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JEF
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB