Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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835 FXUS61 KAKQ 290839 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 439 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid conditions into early next week, along with daily diurnal thunderstorms chances. A cold front arrives by Tuesday bringing an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, dew points will drop a few degrees and bring some relief from the humidity through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 327 AM EDT Sunday... - Hot and humid conditions continue today. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening, with a few possibly strong to severe. Surface analysis places a cold front stretched across the Ohio River Valley through western New York this morning. Aloft, an expansive ridge is planted across the western North Atlantic and generally zonal flow over our area. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is depicting mostly clear skies this morning. Some patchy fog is being reported at a few observation sites, though not nearly as thick as last night`s fog. Temperatures are currently in the 70s, aside from areas directly adjacent to the water which are seeing near 80 degrees. Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of any developing storms, with highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. Heat indices will range between 97-104F, and while some areas could briefly hit 105F+ heat indices especially in SE VA and NE NC, have decided not to issue a Heat Advisory. This afternoon the aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south towards our northern counties. This will help ignite showers and thunderstorms across our area. Daytime heating will help increase instability, with abundant MLCAPE available to developing storms and minimal inhibition expected. The limiting factor will continue to be low shear values, but isolated strong to severe storm are still possible. SPC has placed most of the area (excluding far SE VA and NE NC) in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with the main threat being damaging winds. PW values across our area will nearing 2+" and steering flow will be relatively weak, which will lead to slower moving storms. The combination of the slower storm motion and ample atmospheric moisture could result in localized flash flooding. WPC has a majority of the area in a Marginal ERO for today to account for the isolated flooding threat. Clouds will scatter some overnight, but partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger through early Monday morning as the front remains parked to our north, with the highest coverage expected in the NW portion of the local area. Temperatures will drop lower to mid 70s NW and the mid to upper 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 327 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Hot weather continues into early next week, with chances of afternoon thunderstorms Monday. - Frontal passage Tuesday/Tuesday night will bring numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. The weakened front will linger to our north on Monday, so another round of afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms that will favor the W/NW counties is expected. The environment on Monday will continue to feature good instability and strong daytime heating, and SPC has placed the NW portion of our forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather once again. While steering flow will still be on the weaker side, it is forecast to pick up some by Monday afternoon which will hopefully help lessen any threat of flash-flooding, though it cannot be fully ruled out. As convection wanes overnight, temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s. Another front will advance towards our area from the west Monday night. The passage of this front is not expected until later in the afternoon and partly cloudy skies and lower rain chances are forecast for Tuesday morning. This will allow temperatures to still reach the lower to mid 90s, making for one last oppressively hot day (for now). As the front approaches the area on Tuesday, it will help pull even higher PW values into the region which should provide for more organized and higher coverage of convection by the afternoon/evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning as the front pushes through. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Front may stall near VA/NC border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC Wednesday and Thursday. - Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area. Guidance is suggesting that the front will stall near the NC/ VA border, which would bring increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC Wednesday through potentially Thursday. The remainder of the area looks to remain mostly dry as drier air moves in behind the front. Though the front is on the weaker side in terms of airmass change, temperatures are still expected to drop a few degrees on Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s. Dew points are also expected to drop a few degrees, which will finally bring some relief to the area. A secondary front is forecast to move through Thursday or Friday, dropping dew points further into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Upper ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by late next week after the frontal passage, so temperatures will quickly rebound back into the 90s by Thursday/Friday. Luckily, the lower dew points look to linger through the weekend, and the heat index is forecast to only reach the 90s Thursday through Saturday. With ridging aloft and at the surface by late week, mostly dry conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. There is a chance for possible patchy fog at SBY early this morning, but that should quickly dissipate after sunrise if it does develop. Scattered convection is forecast for this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in the northern half of the local area. Confidence was high enough to include PROB30 at both RIC and SBY for -TSRA, but there was not enough confidence in the development timing near the southern terminals to include mention of storms at this time. Surface winds outside of any convection will generally be light out of the SW through this evening, with the exception of ORF where the wind direction this afternoon will become more SE due to the influence of the sea breeze. VFR conditions are primarily expected through the middle of next week. There is a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Monday, with higher confidence/more coverage of showers/tstms Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms gradually push S with the cold front Wednesday/Thursday. && .MARINE...
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As of 420 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions through Monday (outside of convection). - SCA conditions likely in the Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound Tuesday/early Wednesday, and possible elsewhere ahead of a stronger cold front. High pressure, centered offshore dominates the pattern, with SW winds averaging around 10 kt with gusts to ~15 kt early this morning. Seas are around 3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. A weakening front approaches from the north later today, but does not really make it into the local waters. The pressure gradient looks weak enough to allow seabreezes to develop this aftn, with winds backing around to the SE at 10-15 kt, before shifting back to the SSW late tonight. Winds then gradually increase Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the next cold front (which will be somewhat stronger). Remaining out of the SW, late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCA headlines are likely going to be needed for the Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound given local wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds at or above 50% from ~06Z til ~18Z Tuesday. Seas are expected to be 4-5 ft (3-4 ft nearshore) into Tuesday night, with waves in the Bay potentially peaking at 3-4 ft Tuesday morning. Behind the front, waves may remain slightly elevated, but sub- SCA conditions will return likely by Wednesday. A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place today over the northern waters, with Low Rip Risk over southern waters.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB NEAR TERM...NB SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...HET/NB MARINE...KMC/LKB