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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221248
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO BURN OFF NEXT 2-4 HRS. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
SCT-BKN CU BTWN 3-4K FT THIS AFTRN. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS
CHCS ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
PER CRNT OBS...DECIDED TO HOIST MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES (15-20KTS) FOR
CHES BAY TDY.

PVS DSCN:
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS /WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
AND GUSTY (LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOC LAGGING UPR TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM
THE NW FRI NGT THRU SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/TMG
MARINE...MPR/TMG