Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 232102 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure lifts northeast just off the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts tonight through Tuesday. The low then moves away from the New England coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the area. A cold front crosses the region Thursday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers anomalous upper level low pressure over central North Carolina. Plume of moisture visible just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, spreading northward into the Northeast. At the surface, ~990mb low pressure has organized over eastern North Carolina, with the triple point offshore. Earlier clearing across the southeast forecast area has filled back in as low clouds have pivoted back over the area. Brunt of the precipitation has pushed north of the local area, with another area of convection observed across southeast North Carolina. For the local area, light precipitation persists from the Piedmont into central Virginia. Light precipitation will continue to pivot across central Virginia as the anomalous upper low lifts into the region and the surface low deepens just offshore. Convection to the south progged to push toward the North Carolina coast as the local area remains stable. Have removed any mention of thunder this evening, but due to the strength of the cold pool, cannot rule out a few rumbles across northeast North Carolina late afternoon into the evening. The surface low progged to locate just offshore of the Delmarva through late tonight as moisture pivots around the backside of the stacked low. Have retained likely POPs across the northeast half of the local area through late tonight. Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will generally be less than one quarter of an inch. Lows forecast in the upper 30`s to low 40`s inland to mid 40`s near the coast under a cloudy sky. Northwest wind generally 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level low pressure lifts northeastward away from the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. At the surface, low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, ridging northward into the Ohio Valley. Expect some lingering light precipitation Tuesday morning across the Eastern Shore due to energy in the northwest flow aloft and lingering moisture. Dry elsewhere, with clearing skies through the day. Breezy, with highs in the upper 40`s northeast to mid 50`s inland. Upper/surface ridge axis locates over the region Tuesday night, resulting in a clear sky and lows in the mid to upper 30`s to low 40`s. Ridge axis slides offshore Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west. An associated cold front progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wednesday. Return flow will push highs into the low to mid 60`s (approaching upper 60`s inland). Clouds increase late Wednesday and Wednesday evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and timing differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the front through the region early Thursday morning. A potent shortwave accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high precipitable waters. However, the NAM and SREF are holding out on the moisture return so have kept POPS in the chance range (30-40%). Front quickly pushes offshore Thursday afternoon, with dry conditions expected area wide during the afternoon. Mild Thursday morning with lows in the upper 40`s to low 50`s.. Highs Thursday generally in the mid to upper 50`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning. Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with this system.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions prevail over the region today as low pressure centers over North Carolina. The exception is across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina where a dry slot has brought some temporary VFR conditions. Winds are generally north to northeast, gusting to 35 to 40 knots over the Eastern Shore. Light precipitation has spread into northern Virginia, but light rain/drizzle will persist through the day over much of the area. Ceilings will remain IFR/MVFR inland through the rest of the day. Low pressure emerges off the North Carolina coast late today, slowly lifting along the Mid- Atlantic coast through tonight. Widespread IFR ceilings are expected this evening through the overnight period. Periods of LIFR also expected. Mixing and cloud cover will limit fog, but light rain/drizzle will persist along the coast. OUTLOOK...The low moves away to the northeast during Tue with showers gradually ending acrs ENE counties. High pressure builds into the area for Tue evening into Wed. There will be a chance for showers Wed night into Thu with dry conditions expected for Thu aftn through Fri. && .MARINE...
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A broad area of low pressure will move NE along the mid-Atlantic coast thru tonight. Gradient winds have starting to ease across the northern coastal waters and will be able to replace the Gale Warning with an SCA as of 4 pm. Will still have gusts to 30 kt across the northern coastal waters thru this evening and into the overnight hours as winds back from E to N then NW by early Tue morn. Seas of 7- 15 ft N of Parramore Island will remain elevated this evening before gradually subsiding to 5-9 ft by daybreak Tue. As alluded to above, the broad low moves slowly NE tonight, and will be very slow to lift to the NE along the NJ coast Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the NW. The wind becomes N- NW and increases to 15-25kt (gusts to ~30kt possible early Tuesday with the strongest pressure rises) for the Bay/ocean later tonight into Tuesday, with speeds averaging 15-20kt for the rivers/Sound, with 25kt gusts possible. SCAs are now in effect for all waters thru Tues aftn or Tue night. Seas will be slow to subside on Tue and may not drop below 5 ft until early Wed. High pressure gradually builds into the region Tuesday night and slides offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front crosses the coast later Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in from the W Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Maryland beaches and Accomack County today. Some minor beach erosion is expected. Low pressure pushes off the Delmarva coast late through midday today resulting in a brief but modestly strong onshore wind. This will push tidal anomalies to 1.5-3.0ft above normal today into tonight/Tue morn. Coastal locations from Wachapreague to Ocean City will reach minor flooding thresholds this afternoon, with areas from Chincoteague to Ocean City coming close to moderate flooding thresholds. Have added Accomack County to the coastal flood advisory for this afternoon. Portions of the middle and upper Bay will come within 0.5ft of minor flooding thresholds during the high tides through tonight. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ024- 025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...SAM/TMG MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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