Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WV SATELLITE SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC LOW TRACKING EAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE. WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT HAS SET OFF A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE LOWER ERN SHORE JUST TO THE NORTH OF DORCHESTER MD. FARTHER SOUTH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SE VA. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 F THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT EARLY AM CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND LEAVE MAINLY DRY WX FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS THE FA AS HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) SHIFTS TO FAR NW PORTION OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20% POPS ELSWHERE. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. BY SAT...CDFNT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY WNW AND MNLY SKC TWD THE CST. POPS GENLY ONLY 10%. CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE P/MSNY. WILL INCRS POPS TO 40-50% FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. THE BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN). HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND...70S TO L80S AT THE CST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z/28 GFS/ECMWF EACH INDICATE THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING W. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF DOES STILL PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS AVERAGE 30-50% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NNE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N...TO LOW 80S S. COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY WILL FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S N TO NEAR 80 S...BUT THESE VALUES COULD BE COOLER DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CALM-LIGHT S WIND AOB 5 KT WILL PERSIST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU 12Z. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF SE VA (AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL)...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG AT THE TAF SITES. SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 FT AGL POSSIBLE 10-12Z KRIC/KSBY. FOR TODAY...A SE WIND OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-5K FT AGL EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA...BUT TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI- SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER REFLECT SLY WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. A SELY WIND AVERAGES 10-15 KT TODAY. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SELY WINDS INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT...PUSHING SEAS TO 2-3 FT SAT AND 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT. FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT SUN...BEFORE THE FLOW WEAKENS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDS. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.