Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240000 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will continue into tonight. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the area on Monday and stall across the Carolinas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Convection is currently ongoing across the MD Eastern Shore and also portions of NE NC. As of 3 pm...not much else to be seen on the latest radar scans. Overall, severe potential has been trimmed back this afternoon as tstms just not materializing as expected. Having said that, severe potential is still not completely over, with one good cell moving through lower MD now, another headed off the northern OBX, and potential for additional widely scattered development across the FA into the evening. SPC has kept our eastern areas in a slight risk thru this evening, where will generally keep the highest PoPs (30-50%). Regarding heat...continue to see 105+ deg heat indices this afternoon across portions of the tidewater into NE NC and thus do not plan to make any changes to Heat Advisory there. May do some trimming to the remainder of the advisory before 4 pm, as temps have peaked elsewhere. For tonight, a cold front drops south through the OH valley but remains north of the local area. Convection wanes toward morning. Continued warm and muggy overnight, with lows ranging through the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front slated to push into northern portions of the FA on Monday while weakening. Deep moisture shifts toward and south of the VA/NC border and therefore will favor highest PoPs Mon similarly shifting south across SE VA & NE NC with 20% PoPs for the N. Slightly less humid Monday over the NW CWA. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 F over most of the area. This will preclude the need for additional heat headlines. Front stalls in NC Tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over the S (20-35%), and 10-15% N. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday still looks to be the nicest day we`ve seen in awhile temperature-wise. Sfc high pressure traverses New England with max temps only reaching the the mid/upr 80s with somewhat lower humidity levels. Stalled frontal boundary to our south will still keep a chance of mainly aft/eve shwrs/tstms in the forecast over our southern FA (PoPs 20-40%). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Mid-Atlantic region will generally be situated between a trough off the Carolina Coast and trough digging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. The Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough gradually drops into the region Thursday night and Friday as an associated cold front approaches from the NW. PoPs are mainly aob 20% Wednesday night/Thursday and then increase to 30-40% chc for showers/tstms Friday ahead of the approaching front. Highs Thursday/Friday are mainly in the upper 80s to around 90, with mid 80s at the immediate coast, and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. The trough is progged to settle over the region by Saturday/Sunday with the cold front pushing through Friday night into Saturday, before stalling off the Carolina coast. Forecast PoPs for showers/tstms are ~40% Friday night, and then generally 20-30% NW to 30-40% SE next weekend. High temperatures trend down into the mid 80s as the trough settles overhead with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Numerous thunderstorms stretching from central NC to SE Virginia moving slowly east. Storms are not affecting any TAF sites but there is a chance for ECG and ORF to see some scattered storms before midnight. Also, a complex of showers and storms from NY to Md may affect the Eastern Shore Md and SBY before midnight. Showers and/or VCTS relected in TAFs for this potential but don`t have strong confidence at this time. Some patchy fog is possible across the Piedmont during the overnight but am not expecting any significant impact to TAF sites at this time. Outlook: Convective continues for south central VA and NC for Monday/Tuesday. VFR should dominate through this period, with periods of sub-VFR possible in heavier showers/TSRA. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period. && .MARINE... No headlines are anticipated as winds are expected to remain out of the SW around 15 knots through Monday. A few gusts in excess of 20 knots will be possible this afternoon and overnight across the southern waters, but duration is not expected to be long enough to justify a SCA headline. Seas will be 2 feet nearshore and up to 4 feet 20 nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this evening and through the first half of the night. A frontal boundary crosses the area early Tuesday bringing a windshift to the E-NE. Winds are expected to generally remain around 15 knots behind the frontal boundary. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet with some areas to around 5 feet at 20 nm in the far northern zones. The extended marine period will be dominated by mainly weak onshore flow as a frontal boundary stalls across the region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for today are listed below: * Date: Sun(7/23) * RIC: 103/1952 * ORF: 103/2011 * SBY: 103/2011 * ECG: 104/1952 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MAM SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...

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