Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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014 FXUS61 KAKQ 191918 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 218 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area today. A backdoor cold front pushes south across the area tonight. High pressure builds well north of the region and slides off the coast by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current wv imagery shows an upper trough pushing off the Carolina coast, with a lingering trough axis sliding across the Delmarva producing some mid/high (AC/CI) clouds. The surface pressure pattern is weak and generally characterized by a weak trough over the Ern Conus, and high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Cross-sections indicate the skn-bkn clouds with the trough will thin through the day. 850mb temperatures drop to around 6-8C, but will be offset by downsloping light NW flow. Above normal temperatures continue (+1.5 - 2.0 st dev) with highs in the lower 70s except mid to upr 60s along the coast. Readings may hover around 60 at the beaches. Record highs appear safe but may be approached at SBY. See CLI section below. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over eastern Canada pushes a backdoor cold front south across the are this evening. The 1030+ mb high continues to build ewd Monday resulting in onshore flow and cooler conditions near the water while the Piedmont stays mild. Lows tonight in the 40s. Highs Monday range from the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore, low to mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, to the low 70s over the Piedmont. High pressure prevails over the region Monday night. Colder with lows dropping into the low/mid 30s NE to the upper 30s/around 40 W under a mostly clear sky. The high slides offshore Tuesday as a weakening cold front approaches from the W. Mixing will be limited, only to about 950-925mb, with high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 50s NE to the lwr 60s SW. Dry with increasing clouds by aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period of above normal temperature and just a chance for showers as the cold front crosses the area Friday night into Saturday morning. On Wed night into Thursday as the high slides off the coast, the flow will turn sw and should see a good warm up ahead of a weak front that tries to drop in from the north. The guidance suggest the possibility of some light showers especially across the northern part of the cwa Thursday into Thursday night. But with the area having been dry for the last several weeks will not mention any chance of rain with this week front as the ridging aloft may end up keeping the front just north of the area. Expect above normal temperatures with readings with highs in the uppers 60s to the mid 70s. The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday. The guidance is a little suspect on how much moisture is available and with the trough and dynamics lifting NE away from the area have kept pops at chance with the front and QPF at this point looks to be pretty low still, less than 0.25". Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal but still above normal, but just not 20 to 25 above normal as Thursday into Saturday will be.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across the CWA this afternoon with few clouds except some mid/high level clouds over the Eastern Shore. Those clouds should thin and/or move out of the vicinity by late afternoon and early evening. Winds are mostly light out of the NW-N less than 10 kt. Mostly SKC expected overnight. OUTLOOK...High pressure and VFR conditions over the region on Monday. Scattered showers possible Tue night. Otherwise, dry weather through Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through at least mid week. A trough of low pres slides through the area this morng as low pres develops off the SE cst, with 10-15 kt SW winds shifting to the NW by later this morng. Waves over the Bay 1-2 ft with seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Similar conditions into tonight with a slight uptick in winds (up to ~15 kt) as a weak cold front drops through the area. High pres then builds in from the west Mon, settling over the wtrs Mon night into Tue allowing for benign marine conditions to continue. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for today: * Site 2/19 Forecast highs * RIC: 78 (1961) 73 * ORF: 73 (1907) 68 * SBY: 72 (1961) 71 * ECG: 77 (1939) 69 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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