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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240000
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue into tonight. A
weakening cold front will gradually push across the area on
Monday and stall across the Carolinas through the middle of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels
by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection is currently ongoing across the MD Eastern Shore and
also portions of NE NC. As of 3 pm...not much else to be seen on
the latest radar scans. Overall, severe potential has been
trimmed back this afternoon as tstms just not materializing as
expected. Having said that, severe potential is still not
completely over, with one good cell moving through lower MD now,
another headed off the northern OBX, and potential for
additional widely scattered development across the FA into the
evening. SPC has kept our eastern areas in a slight risk thru
this evening, where will generally keep the highest PoPs
(30-50%). Regarding heat...continue to see 105+ deg heat indices
this afternoon across portions of the tidewater into NE NC and
thus do not plan to make any changes to Heat Advisory there. May
do some trimming to the remainder of the advisory before 4 pm,
as temps have peaked elsewhere.

For tonight, a cold front drops south through the OH valley but
remains north of the local area. Convection wanes toward morning.
Continued warm and muggy overnight, with lows ranging through
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front slated to push into northern portions of the FA on
Monday while weakening. Deep moisture shifts toward and south
of the VA/NC border and therefore will favor highest PoPs Mon
similarly shifting south across SE VA & NE NC with 20% PoPs for
the N. Slightly less humid Monday over the NW CWA. Not quite as
hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 F over most of the area. This will
preclude the need for additional heat headlines. Front stalls
in NC Tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over the S
(20-35%), and 10-15% N. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower
90s. Wednesday still looks to be the nicest day we`ve seen in
awhile temperature-wise. Sfc high pressure traverses New England
with max temps only reaching the the mid/upr 80s with somewhat
lower humidity levels. Stalled frontal boundary to our south
will still keep a chance of mainly aft/eve shwrs/tstms in the
forecast over our southern FA (PoPs 20-40%).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Mid-Atlantic region will generally be situated between a
trough off the Carolina Coast and trough digging through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. The
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough gradually drops into the region
Thursday night and Friday as an associated cold front approaches
from the NW. PoPs are mainly aob 20% Wednesday night/Thursday
and then increase to 30-40% chc for showers/tstms Friday ahead
of the approaching front. Highs Thursday/Friday are mainly in
the upper 80s to around 90, with mid 80s at the immediate coast,
and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. The trough is progged to
settle over the region by Saturday/Sunday with the cold front
pushing through Friday night into Saturday, before stalling off
the Carolina coast. Forecast PoPs for showers/tstms are ~40%
Friday night, and then generally 20-30% NW to 30-40% SE next
weekend. High temperatures trend down into the mid 80s as the
trough settles overhead with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Numerous thunderstorms stretching from central NC to SE
Virginia moving slowly east. Storms are not affecting any TAF
sites but there is a chance for ECG and ORF to see some
scattered storms before midnight. Also, a complex of showers and
storms from NY to Md may affect the Eastern Shore Md and SBY
before midnight. Showers and/or VCTS relected in TAFs for this
potential but don`t have strong confidence at this time. Some
patchy fog is possible across the Piedmont during the overnight
but am not expecting any significant impact to TAF sites at this
time.

Outlook: Convective continues for south central VA and NC for
Monday/Tuesday. VFR should dominate through this period, with
periods of sub-VFR possible in heavier showers/TSRA. A weak cold
front pushes into the area for the mid week period.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines are anticipated as winds are expected to remain out of
the SW around 15 knots through Monday. A few gusts in excess of 20
knots will be possible this afternoon and overnight across the
southern waters, but duration is not expected to be long enough to
justify a SCA headline. Seas will be 2 feet nearshore and up to 4
feet 20 nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
early this evening and through the first half of the night.

A frontal boundary crosses the area early Tuesday bringing a
windshift to the E-NE. Winds are expected to generally remain around
15 knots behind the frontal boundary. Seas will range from 2 to 4
feet with some areas to around 5 feet at 20 nm in the far northern
zones. The extended marine period will be dominated by mainly weak
onshore flow as a frontal boundary stalls across the region.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the
forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today are listed below:

* Date: Sun(7/23)

* RIC:  103/1952
* ORF:  103/2011
* SBY:  103/2011
* ECG:  104/1952

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...