Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240159 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA. SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING 4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY. DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD/JEF AVIATION...DAP MARINE...BMD

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