Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290316 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1016 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S. MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN. CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM. DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40 ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND. SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S. CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT. LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 20S TO NR 30. YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT. CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD. SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S WITH THIS SYSTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...MPR

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