Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281441 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1041 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina border this afteroon into tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A subtle change in airmass has occurred during the past 12-18 hrs across the FA. A frontal boundary has become stationary from about the Albemarle Sound on WNW through the far SW counties in AKQ FA on NW to (far) wrn PA. More stable air due to onshore winds found N of that boundary across most of the FA this morning (also resulted in the widespread FA inland earlier this morning which has since dissipated). Additionally...the airmass over central VA to NE NC was worked over by late day convection on Sat. All of that signifies that it may be difficult for development of strong/svr tstms over the FA the rest of today (w/ possible exception to areas near-S of the VA-NC border). Attm...SHRAs/ISOLD tstms developing N of the boundary from scentral to central VA and on E to the lower Ches Bay. Near term model guidance through this afternoon showing less convective potential - as compared to 18-24 hrs ago - as the boundary only nudges N a bit toward the VA-NC (or just N of it). Have increased cloudiness across most of the FA and kept PoPs mainly 30-50%. Highs in the 70s on the eastern shore (u60s-around 70F at the beaches)...l-m70s N to around 80F ern/central VA...80-85F in NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Remnant sfc boundary to linger invof (srn portions) the FA through tonight. Lingering convection in the evening...wanes/decreases in coverage overnight. Otherwise...partly to mostly cloudy tonight w/ lows in the 60s. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers/tstms are possible Memorial Day aftn/evening. However, the 28/00z model runs are trending drier with less coverage, mainly confined to far SE VA/NE NC, and PoPs have correspondingly been dropped to the 20-30% range. Increasing WSW flow aloft ahead of a trough digging across the Great Lakes will yield 0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. This will combine with ~1000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms despite limited coverage and mainly across NE NC. Partly sunny on Memorial Day with highs in the low/mid 80s, with the potential for near 90 SE, and 70s along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. Current 00z guidance has trended toward the aforementioned cold front becoming aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft and stalling immediately N of the region to perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. The chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms will diminish Tuesday with low chc PoPs confined to far SE VA/NE NC. Forecast highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s/low 80s to the mid 80s inland W of the Bay, after morning lows in the 60s to low 70s SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period beginning Tuesday night features near normal temperatures and generally low chances for precipitation. Weak and poorly defined frontal boundaries affect the area and confidence in the details of the precipitation forecast are rather low. Thunderstorm chances Wednesday were kept relatively low as weak high pressure builds in. A frontal boundary moves in for Thursday and settles just off the coast Friday and Saturday. Highest POPs (30 to 40 percent) are currently set for southern portions on Friday afternoon and evening. High temperatures are forecast to range from 80 to 85 Wednesday and Thursday and the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday. Readings will be a bit lower near the coast. Lows are expected to range from 60 to 65. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The current surface analysis shows a weak front in vicinity of the VA/NC border, with light N/NE flow north of the boundary and light S/SW flow south of the boundary. Fog is affecting RIC this morning and should persist through ~14z. Showers/tstms are expected again this aftn/evening as another upper level system interacts with the surface boundary. Sct coverage of showers/tstms is expected after 18z, with more widespread coverage after 21z for central/SE VA/NE NC, and then spreading newd toward SBY after 00z. Strong to severe storms are possible once again with severe wind gusts and hail being the main threats. A minimal chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms will persist Monday through Thursday. Stratus and patchy fog is possible each morning. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis places a cold front near the Virginia and North Carolina border with high pressure centered off the Northeast coast. The result is onshore flow north of the boundary and south to southwest flow over the North Carolina waters. Speeds are generally at or below 10 knots. Waves generally 1 foot and seas 2 feet. The frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the North Carolina and Virginia border today as a wave of low pressure pushes offshore late today into tonight. Flow remains onshore at 10-15 knots today, becoming south to southeast this evening, and then west to southwest late tonight. Seas build to 2-3 feet, with waves of 1-2 feet. The front lifts northward Monday as low pressure lifts into eastern Canada. A trailing cold front stalls near the coast Monday afternoon. Model differences with waves of low pressure and the placement of the front/surface trough result in a challenging wind forecast Monday and Monday night, with flow generally west to southwest at or below 10 knots. Waves remain 1-2 feet and seas 2-3 feet. The weak front remains near the coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The next front pushes across the waters Tuesday night. A lack of cold advection expected to keep conditions sub-SCA Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday, centering over the waters on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/JAO NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM

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