Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291819 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 219 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the northwest this Memorial Day and stalls north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across North Carolina tonight and off the Outer Banks Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest surface analysis places weak low pressure now well off the Delmarva coast, with associated sfc warm front lifting across Central VA at midday. To the west, a slow moving cold front crossing the central Appalachians from the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Stratus/fog has largely eroded with arrival of drier air from the W-SW, bringing a partly to mostly sunny late morning/early afternoon for most of the area, with decreasing cloudiness across the MD Eastern Shore over the next few hours. Forecast highs today still look good...and range mainly in the mid/upper 80s for central/srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures will be lower over the Ern Shore where stratus will be slower to erode, with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and only upper 60s to around 70 for the MD beaches. Still little support among Hi-Res CAMs for widespread showers/T-Storms during the day today. However, some isolated pulse-type convection remains possible in association with sea/bay-breeze initiating over the Ern Shore and wrn shore of the Bay by early afternoon, and therefore have a 20% POP along and east of I-95 for the mid to late aftn hours. Sky cover averages partly to mostly sunny early, with increasing clouds late. Bumped up cloud cover over the south in anticipation of some convective debris clouds getting shunted in our direction by late afternoon in W-SW flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lull in precipitation early in the evening. However, expect showers to re-develop by mid to late evening, owing to low pressure lifting across central NC toward SE VA/NE NC w/associated shortwave energy pushing across the southern third of the area within WSW flow aloft. Forecast PoPs area generally 20-40% across srn/SE VA/NC NC, with thunder maintained overnight due to the presence of some mid- level instability. Partly to mostly cloudy with lows ranging through the 60s. 00Z/29 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately N of the region and perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. Meanwhile, the aforementioned weak surface low pushes off the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. The chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms will diminish Tuesday, though will continue with 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC, and 20-30% for the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows ranging through the 60s. There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper level trough will sharpen over the Great Lakes Wednesday, but there is a lack of any trigger for convective development Wednesday aftn. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the region. High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 17z...A warm front was lifting northeast through the Maryland Eastern Shore. A weak cold front will move through this evening. Another weak cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening with a stronger front coming through on Wednesday night. In the wake of the clearing of stratus...cumulus was developing across the area. Winds from the west and northwest will shift back to easterly toward evening. With onshore flow...another round of MVFR/IFR stratus and some fog will likely develop overnight and slowly improve mid to late morning Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly late day and evening thunderstorms are expected Tuesday with rather isolated activity late Wednesday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday. Chances for convection return Friday afternoon and become a likelihood on Saturday afternoon. Patchy fog or stratus is possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers weak low pressure just offshore the Delmarva, with a frontal boundary stretching along the coast and into northeast North Carolina. Winds are generally northwest to west at 5-15 knots. Seas average 2-3 feet and waves 1 foot. Low pressure pushes farther offshore today as the North Carolina front lifts northward. A weakening cold front approaches from the west. Light flow persists through the afternoon, becoming onshore and increasing to 10-15 knots this evening/tonight as the front reaches the coast. Seas build to 2-4 feet (highest northern coastal waters) tonight. Waves 1-2 feet. The front stalls/washes out along the coast Tuesday as another weakening front approaches from the west. Winds generally south of the south at 5-10 knots. The front pushes just offshore late Tuesday night as flow becomes west to northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Another cold front approaches from the west Wednesday, crossing the waters Wednesday night. Weak cold advection behind the front results in continued sub-SCA conditions. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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