Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231807 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 207 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks east across a stalled frontal boundary located just north of the area today. The front will then drop south over the region late today into tonight. High pressure builds in from the north Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lull in pcpn coverage early afternoon with subsidence allowing for some partially sunshine. However, watching the next convection crossing over the mountains attm. Adjusted pops to chc all areas this afternoon as this energy might act on leftover boundaries to produce sct tstms. The airmass has been worked over this morning so confidence not that high for anything severe next several hours. Highs in the 80s. pvs dscn: Good chance for shras/tstms continues tngt as the frntal bndry drops s thru the area. Low temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure to the north builds into the area behind the front Friday. Not as warm as the winds shift to the NE. The boundary gets hung up to the south so expect sct convection during the day with the highest pops across North Carolina. Highs in the low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay...75-80 along the coast. Drying trend and cooler Friday night and Saturday as high pressure dominates. Lows Friday night in the mid to upr 60s. Highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s west of the bay...mid 70s to lwr 80s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry conditions to begin the extended period as the upper level ridge axis builds over the region. Surface high pressure pushes off the Northeast coast Sunday with low level winds remaining onshore. Temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal norms, with highs generally in the low 80`s near the coast to mid 80`s inland. Upper high pressure retreats westward over the Desert Southwest Monday as shortwave energy digs from south central Canada over the Great Lakes region. An attendant cold front forecast to reach the Ohio Valley late Monday. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead of the front will induce a lee side trough late Monday, which coupled with increasing moisture in southerly flow may help some upstream showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain move into the region Monday night, but expect Monday to remain dry. Warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. Better moisture arrives Tuesday with dewpoints warming back into 70`s. The front may drop into the Piedmont late Tuesday, but expect enough instability and low level convergence along the lee/thermal trough for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Near seasonal temperatures again with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. The front is expected to reach the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, with POPs continuing along the coast Wednesday as the trough builds over the Northeast CONUS. Highs Wednesday in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Not an easy TAF forecast. Mostly VFR across the region at 18Z but a large area of showers/tstms is approching from the NW (Ohio Valley) and moving towards the Mid Atlantic region. How this area will evolve over time is not being handled very well by model guidance. Generally expect some showers and possible TSTM development during the aftn/evening period. This will likely affect the region through midnight and possibly into the early morning. MVFR/IFR conditions expected during any convection. VFR conditions expected outside any precip activity...except some fog and light rain/drizzle are possible towards the early morning. Outlook...Unsettled weather continues Fri with a frontal boundary across the region. Additional showers or storms are possible. The weekend looks quiet with high pressure building across the Mid Atlc.
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&& .MARINE... Latest wx analysis reveals Sfc Low pressure over the western Ohio Valley, sliding E-SE along frontal boundary, which is in place from near the VA/NC border back into W VA and the OH/TN vlys. Sfc low will continue to slide E-SE towards the Delmarva today. Pre-frontal SW winds increase with tightening pressure gradient, but should remain sub-SCA given warm air mass in place and the resultant less than optimal mixing of stronger winds just aloft. Sfc low pulls offshore tonight, with its trailing sfc boundary dropping into the area overnight into Friday morning, slowly veering winds to the W-NW overnight. Very little CAA push behind the boundary should keep predominate conditions sub-SCA behind the front late tonight and Friday. High pressure builds off the Northeast Coast on Friday/Friday night, with low level flow veering around to the N-NE ~10-15 knots. High pressure remains in the vicinity of the Northeast coast through the weekend with ongoing northeast flow over the waters. Rather meager pressure gradient expected, so speeds will likely stay sub- SCA ~ 10-15 kt. Seas expected to stay at or below 4 feet, but NWPS and wavewatch both depict 5-6 foot seas just offshore. Have kept 3-4 ft and wl continue to monitor. High pressure pushes offshore Monday as the next cold front approaches from the west. Flow becomes south to southeast at or below 15 knots. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/MPR NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...MAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.