Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161917 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary remains over the region tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds over the Northeast states. The next cold front affects the area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Latest MSAS shows Gert quickly moving ne and away from the area. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary is located just south of the Mason-Dixon line with a sfc trof along the Carolina coast. AKQ fa sandwiched between the two in a warm and humid airmass. Expect isltd late aftrn convection to dissipate with loss of heating this eve. Lingering low level moisture along with a weak wind flow will result in another night for some fog development, but just how much fog vs stratus??? Added patchy fog for most areas but data suggests the Piedmont may see the most. Lows 69-74. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture pooling along a trof over the mts Thursday morning results in sct convection developing with the activity progged to drift into the Piedmont into the aftern hours. Will carry chc pops for now (highest nwrn most zones). Dry sern zones. Otw, partly to mstly sunny. Highs in the upr 80s to near 90 except 80-85 at the beaches. Frontal boundary begins to sag south across the Mid Atlantic region Thursday night. Enough moisture and support noted to keep chc pops across the area. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but do thnk the chc for pcpn will be around all day. Some sun in between individual cells will make it rather humid. Nothing severe expected at this time, but gusty winds and lclly heavy downpours possible. Highs upr 80s to lwr 90s. Frontal boundary slowly drifts se across the region Friday night and Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones Sat. Lows Fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front remains stalled near the Mid Atlantic Coast Sat night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area by Sun aftn. Any showers/storms invof the front will diminish as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the area, and although temperatures should experience little to no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on Mon... bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast during this time. Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Lows Sat/Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Lows Mon/Tue nights generally 70-75F. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT-BKN SC/CU between 2-4K FT developing this afternoon. Could also see isltd seabreeze convection developing over the next few hrs at SBY/ORF/ECG but confidence not high enough to include at any one TAF site given the clouds just beginning to develop with daytime heating. Attention then turns to fog/stratus development once again tonight and Thursday morning. Models suggest best chcs for fog will over the Piedmont and Lwr Maryland Eastern shore where lcl IFR vsbys psbl toward daybreak. At this point, appears to be another night for both a stratus layer and fog, so went with a combo across inland sites not going below 1-2SM VSBYS for now. Pcpn should hold off until the end of the forecast period over the Piedmont. OUTLOOK...A cold front approaches the area Fri and settles over the region Sat bringing another chance for convection. && .MARINE... A boundary stalled just south of the Mason-Dixon line will drift nwd tonight into Thu as Hurricane Gert continues to move well away from the Mid Atlantic Coast. Seas average 3ft all waters by this evening...dropping to 2ft in srn waters by Thu morning. Winds generally E-SE 10kt or less this evening through Thu morning. Pressure gradient begins to tighten as a slow-moving cold front tracks into the Ohio Valley Thu, crosses the mountains Fri, and moves over the waters late Fri night into Sat. Winds speeds increase to an average of 10-15kt Thu aftn...initially SE and then becoming more S early Fri morning into Fri evening. Seas average 2-3ft during this time span but may touch 4ft out near 20NM as the front crosses the waters. Winds become more SW-W with speeds aob 10kt early Sat morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the Mid Atlantic Coast, and then become more onshore Sun aftn into Mon as the front sags well south of the area. SCA flags not anticipated with the wind speed increase Thu/Fri except with thunderstorms associated with the front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be handled with short-fused MWS or SMW products. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD

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