Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230155 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 855 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S SE. THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER 22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUN. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN. ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA. && .MARINE... HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3 TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RIC 76 1979 ORF 78 1983 SBY 78 1931 ECG 77 1983 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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