Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210308 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1008 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure traverses New England through the overnight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. A frontal boundary stalls north of the area Tuesday night. Low pressure tracks well south of the region Tuesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Late this evening, sfc high pressure was centered over Eastern Canada and extended south across the Mid-Atlantic region. The high will traverse New England overnight with light NE winds becoming east. BUFKIT soundings show an increase in high-level moisture overnight in NW flow. Will continue with a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 30s to near 40. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The high slides off the New England coast Tuesday ahead of a weakening mid-level cold front approaching from the west. Meanwhile, a strong upper low develops near the TX/LA border and reaches the MS Gulf Coast by the end of the day. High pressure remains offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday as the strong low reaches the west coast of FL by 00z Thu. Partly to mostly sunny and mild Tuesday with highs from the mid/upr 50s at the coast to the low 60s inland. Increasing clouds Tuesday night with a slight chc of showers across the Piedmont late. Will maintain slight chc to low end chc pops (20-30%) Wednesday (along/west of the Bay) as a weak upr trough passes overhead. The 12z NAM is the most bullish with precip chances on Wednesday although mostly discounting it as this point given that consensus keeps most of the moisture south of the local area nearest the Gulf low. Lows Tuesday night in the 40s. Highs Wednesday in the 60s. Dry and mild Wednesday night with high pressure sitting offshore and the strong low impacting FL. Lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s. By Thursday, increasing WSW develops due to the position of the offshore low and a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Midwest. Models indicating enough moisture present for isolated showers (~20% PoPs). Turning warmer with highs 70-75, except some 60s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period of well above normal temperatures along with a chance for showers and psbl tstms as the cold front crosses the area Saturday. The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday. The guidance remains in decent agreement for a swath of moisture and marginal dynamics with the fropa on Sat, but with the upper trough already taking on a negative tilt so far W of the Appalachians, could see a scenario where precip struggles to hold together as the front moves east of the Mtns. Will maintain slight chance of tstms on Sat, but have lowered the PoPs to ~30% over the south/southeast. Best chance for precip will be across the far N where a low-end likely PoP ~60% is in the forecast. very warm with highs upper 60s NW to lower-mid 70s SE. Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal but will remain above avg (just not 20 to 25 degrees above normal as Fri-Sat will be). Dry Sun-mon with highs mainly in the 50s N to the 60s S. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over New England will slowly slide to the east. Light northeast to east winds will gradually veer to southeast on Tuesday. Scattered to broken high clouds will be over the area during the 00Z TAF period. Low dew points will continue maintaining unlimited visibilities. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Broad area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drift to the east into Florida by Wednesday. Moisture will increase from the south but only isolated showers are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Complex frontal system will affect the area late in the week with small chances for showers Thursday and Thursday night. A strong cold front passes through the Mid Atlantic States Saturday with a good chance for showers... especially northern portions. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions prevail this aftn with a weak pressure gradient in place. NE winds now diminishing to 5-10 KT on avg with seas and waves only 1-2 ft throughout. The high builds directly over the northern wtrs by Tue with winds shifting to the E/SE at 10 KT or less. Seas likely build to 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft on avg. Sub-SCA S/SE flow then persists Wed-Fri ahead of the next cold front, which crosses the wtrs over the weekend with a period of marginal SCA conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC and ORF to be at least into the top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest). Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24: 2/23 2/24 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record: * RIC: 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...

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